磁层-电离层电动耦合的中纬电离层效应

本文通过对1982年磁扰期间琼中、北京两站地磁X分量变化的分析,证实了磁层-电离层电动耦合对中纬电离层电流的影响.分析发现:磁静、磁扰条件下的平均日变化中,两站X分量变化在白天有反向的趋势.这表明它们分处于与动力效应对应的电离层发电机电流圈中心之南北两侧.在磁暴主相期间,X分量变化形态与之明显不同,两站地磁南北分量有同向变化,且变幅相近,甚至有时北京站△X更大.对环电流能量增长指数R小于-25nT/h的21次事件所作的时序叠加分析（以R最负时为零时）进一步证明,这种同向变化是普遍存在的.两站零时之△X大小相近,相关系数高达0.98.该同向变化与R指数突然变负密切相关. 以上对比表明,与发电机电流造成两站X分量反向变化不同,同向变化是磁层源高纬扰动电流向中低纬直接穿透的结果.本文对动力和电动耦合两种过程的不同进行了初步讨论.     

综合利用地震多参数预测油气藏

以吉林省境内红星构造带(已发现油田)和杨柳青构造带(未发现油田)为试验区,首先利用地震地层学方法,研究间接参数特征,确定有利相带和有效圈闭,并在有效圈闭上选择了39个2×2cm时窗。在时窗内提取与地震波动力学有关的信息,即频率、振幅、频谱能量等,然后对这种信息进行统计计算,获得振幅方差等九个参数并对其进行综合分析,从已知油气藏出发,对未知圈闭油气状况进行了三级预测,指出了最有利的勘探靶区。     

High-resolution shallow seismic identification of gas escape features in the sediments of Loch Tay, Scotland: tectonic and microbiological associations

High-resolution seismic reflection profiles (3·5 kHz) have revealed the presence of extensive interstitial gas accumulation within the sedimentary sequences of Loch Tay, Scotland, as identified by acoustic turbidity masking the seismic stratigraphy. Within the central section of the loch, in the deepest water area directly above the zone of the seismically active Loch Tay Fault, focused flows of gas through the sediment pile to the loch bed via chimneys and pockmarks, together with gas seeps within the water column, have been identified. Microbiological observations indicate that the gas is biogenic CH₄, produced by both chemoautotrophic (which use CO₂ as a source of carbon and H₂ as a source of energy) and aceticlastic species (which use acetate as a source of carbon and energy) of methanogens in the fine-grained, organic rich deposits that have been focused into the zone of accumulation in the deep central part of the loch. The spatial distribution of the gas escape features suggests that earthquake movements along the Loch Tay Fault are responsible for facilitating focused gas escape in this part of the loch, by the creation of new pathways and conduits through the sediment pile, along which gas can migrate upwards and exit into the water column. Relict pockmarks and associated chimneys identified in the seismic records indicate that gas escape has been taking place since Pleistocene times though the precise timings cannot be ascertained. This is the first time that such features have been reported from a lake in the UK.     

Deep structure of the Nojima Fault, southwest Japan, estimated from borehole observations of fault-zone trapped waves

To estimate the deep structure of the southern part of the Nojima Fault, southwest Japan without the influence of near-surface structures, we analyzed the Love-wave-type fault-zone trapped waves (LTWs) recorded by a borehole seismometer at 1800 m depth. We examined the polarization, dispersion, and dominant frequency of the wavetrain following the direct S-wave in each seismogram to identify the LTW. We selected eight candidates for typical LTWs from 462 records. Because the duration of the LTW increases with hypocentral distance, we infer that the low velocity fault-zone of the Nojima Fault continues towards the seismogenic depth. In addition, since the duration of the LTW increases nonlinearly with hypocentral distance, we infer that the S-wave velocity of the fault-zone increases with depth. The location of events showing the LTW indicates that the fault-zone dips to the southeast at 75° and continues to a depth of approximately 10 km. We assumed a uniform low-velocity waveguide to estimate the average structure of the fault-zone. We estimated the average width, S-wave velocity, and Q_s of the fault-zone by comparing an analytical solution of the LTW with measured data. The average width, S-wave velocity, and Q_s of the fault-zone are 150 to 290 m, 2.5 to 3.2 km/s, and 40 to 90, respectively. Hence the fault-zone structure with a larger width and smaller velocity reduction than the fault-zone model estimated by previous surface observation is more suitable to represent the average fault-zone structure of the Nojima fault. The present study also indicated that the shallow layers and/or a shallow fault-zone structure drastically changes the characteristics of the LTW recorded at the surface, and therefore cause a discrepancy in the fault-zone model between the borehole observation and surface observation.     

On the Importance of Geolithological Features for the Estimate of the Site Response: The Case of Catania Metropolitan Area (Italy)

The evaluation of seismic site response in the urban area of Catania was tackled by selecting test areas having peculiar lithological and structural features, potentially favourable to large local amplifications of ground motion. The two selected areas are located in the historical downtown and in the northern part of Catania where the presence of a fault is evident. Site response was evaluated using spectral ratio technique taking the horizontal- to-vertical component ratio of ambient noise. Inferences from microtremor measurements are compared with results from synthetic accelerograms and response spectra computed at all drillings available for this area. Such method is particularly suitable in urban areas where the nature of the outcropping geological units is masked by city growth and anthropic intervention on the surface geology. The microtremor H/V spectral ratios evaluated at soft sites located within the downtown profile tend to be smaller than that usually reported in the literature for such soils. A tendency for amplifications to peaks near 2 Hz is observed only in some sites located on recent alluvial deposits. Evidences for amplifications of site effects (frequency range 4–8 Hz) were observed in the sampling sites located on the fault, with a rapid decrease of spectral amplitude just a few tenths of metres away from the discontinuity. Numerical simulations evidenced the importance of geolithological features at depth levels even greater than 20–30 m. Besides this, the results strongly confirm the importance of the subsurface geological conditions, in the estimate of seismic hazard at urban scale.     

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.     

Damage Survey of Water Supply Systems and Fragility Curve of PVC Water Pipelines in the Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake

Substantial damage to water supply systems, including water delivery pipelines, water treatment plants, reservoirs, and water storage tanks, was reported after the 1999 Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake. This paper first summarizes the damage survey and then presents the results of seismic fragility analysis for underground pipelines. Construction blueprints of the water delivery pipelines and repair work orders of 11 townships and cities in the disastrous area were digitized into a Geographical Information System (GIS) for analysis and assessment. With the aid of the GIS system, we found that PVC pipes made up 86% of water delivery pipelines while steel, cast iron, ductile iron, PE and others took the rest. Therefore, this paper focuses on the fragility analysis of PVC pipes. Three different methods were applied to derive the fragility relations between the PVC water pipes having nominal diameters (approximately inner diameters) greater than or equal to 65 mm and earthquake intensity parameters such as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The results were then examined with those of other countries. The discrepancy between our results and the empirical equation used by HAZUS, an earthquake loss estimation software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was not significant.     

Assessing the Vibrational Frequencies of the Cathedral of Cologne (Germany) by Means of Ambient Seismic Noise Analysis

Ambient seismic noise measurements were conducted inside the Cathedral of Cologne (Germany) for assessing its frequencies of vibration and for checking whether these occur in the range where soil amplification is expected. If this is the case, damages may increase in case of an earthquake due to an increased structural response of the building. Analysis of the ratio between the horizontal and vertical components of the spectra recorded at stations located inside the building as well as the ratio between the corresponding components of the spectra recorded simultaneously inside the building and at a reference station placed in the basement of the cathedral indicated several modes of vibration. Facilitated by these results an assessment of the seismic vulnerability was attempted for a 2D ground motion scenario using the finite element method.     

Site Effects Study in the Serravalle Village (NE Italy) by Means of Spectral Ratios Analyses Relatively to Multiple Reference Sites

The area of Serravalle, sited in the northern part of the town of Vittorio Veneto (TV), NE Italy, has been the target of a seismic microzonation campaign. 10 seismic stations have been deployed for a 7 months period to record in continuous mode. Three stations were installed on bedrock outcrops and seven on sedimentary sites with variable cover thickness. Spectral analyses have been performed on the collected data-set using the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT, e.g. Andrews, 1986). In particular, spectral ratios have been calculated for each station relatively to the average of the three reference, bedrock sites. The spectral ratios provide quantitative estimates of the seismic motion amplifications which occur in each of the monitored sites. Two sites show high values of amplification, 5 times larger than signal amplitude at the reference sites, in correspondence of well discernible peak frequencies of 5 Hz. Results for the other stations show smaller amounts of site amplification spreading over a broad range of frequencies. Sites where the highest amplifications were recorded all lie on the left bank of the Meschio River and in areas farther away from its outlet into the plain correlating with the presence of thick layers of Quaternary deposits.     

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.