三峡地区地形变监测与区域地壳稳定性分析

利用三峡地区多年的地形变观测资料，分析了该区的地形变特征。结果表明，各断层活动性甚微或基本不活动，区域地壳相对稳定     

利用地震矩张量反演鲜水河断裂带现今运动学特征

本文探讨了利用地震矩反演断裂形变带运动学参数的基本理论和方法，将其初步应用于鲜水河断裂形变带变形分析和运动机制的研究。结果表明，鲜水河断裂带呈现出走向拉伸、倾向压缩的形变格局，由地震矩反演的断裂带剪切形变速率（１０．９ｍｍ／ａ）与用地质学估算方法（１７ｍｍ／ａ）和现今地壳形变测量（８ｍｍ／ａ）的结果相当。同时，反演出的应变主方向能解释鲜水河断裂现今活动分段性特征以及多种滑动方式共存的现状，从而证明该方法是目前研究区域运动学问题切实有效的手段之一。     

Seismic rays in an ellipsoidal earth model: theoretical analysis and estimation of deviations due to the ellipticity

Summary. A first-order form of the Euler's equations for rays in an ellipsoidal model of the Earth is obtained. The conditions affecting the velocity law for a monotonic increase, with respect to the arc length, in the angular distance to the epicentre, and in the angle of incidence, are the same in the ellipsoidal and spherical models. It is therefore possible to trace rays and to compute travel times directly in an ellipsoidal earth as in the spherical model. Thus comparison with the rays of the same coordinates in a spherical earth provides an estimate of the various deviations of these rays due to the Earth's flattening, and the corresponding travel-time differences, for mantle P -waves and for shallow earthquakes. All these deviations are functions both of the latitude and of the epicentral distance. The difference in the distance to the Earth's centre at points with the same geocentric latitude on rays in the ellipsoidal and in the spherical model may reach several kilometres. Directly related to the deformation of the isovelocity surfaces, this difference is the only cause of significant perturbation in travel times. Other differences, such as that corresponding to the ray torsion, are of the first order in ellipticity, and may exceed 1 km. They induce only small differences in travel time, less than 0.01s. Thus, we show that the ellipticity correction obtained by Jeffreys (1935) and Bullen (1937) by a perturbational method can be recovered by a direct evaluation of the travel times in an ellipsoidal model of the Earth. Moreover, as stated by Dziewonski & Gilbert (1976), we verify the non-dependence of this correction on the choice of the velocity law.     

临猗5.0级地震前后品质因子值变化特征研究

利用西安数字地震遥测台网记录的数字地震资料，采用P波初动半周期残差法求得1998年7月临猗5．0级地震前后不同路径的Q(品质因子)值变化，发现在地震发生前Q值为87～203，震后Q值为67～164，震前震中区附近出现明显的高Q值异常。结果表明，地震前的高Q值异常可以作为地震预测的一种手段。     

首都圈地区现今断层活动的数学模拟及地震危险性讨论

以首都圈地区现今活动断层上近２０年的位移测量资料为依据，用二维线弹性有限元对该区断层的活动特征进行了拟合，并结合有关资料讨论了该区的地震危险性。结果表明：１９７７－１９８６年间该区主压应力优势方位与华北较一致，约为Ｎ４５°－８０°Ｅ；１９８６－１９９０年其主压应力方向向北偏转，约为Ｎ５°－６０°Ｅ；１９９０年至现在其主压应力又向东偏转，角度大于第一阶段，约为Ｎ８０°－９５°Ｅ。该区的张家口－延庆一带近期有发生中强震的可能；丰镇－阳高－大同地区和凉城－古营盘地区应力较高，也应引起注意。     

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Geochronology of Pliocene volcanism in the Dzhavakheti Highland (the Lesser Caucasus). Part 1: Western part of the Dzhavakheti Highland

Isotopic-geochronological study of the Pliocene magmatic activity in western part of the Dzhavakheti Highland (northwestern region of the Lesser Caucasus) is carried out. The results obtained imply that the Pliocene magmatic activity lasted in this part of the highland approximately 2 million years from 3.75 to 1.75–1.55 Ma. As is established, the studied volcanic rocks correspond in composition mostly to K-Na subalkaline and more abundant normal basalts. Time constraints of main phases in development of basic volcanism within the study region are figured out. We assume that individual pulses of silicic to moderately silicic volcanism presumably took place in the Dzhavakheti Highland about 3.2 and 2.5 Ma ago.     

Flood hazard delineation combining geomorphological and hydrological methods: an example in the Northern Iberian Peninsula

Flood mapping requires the combination and integration of geomorphological and hydrological-hydraulic methods; however, despite this, there is very little scientific literature that compares and validates both methods. Two types of analysis are addressed in the present article. On the one hand, maps of flood plains have been elaborated using geomorphological evidence and historical flood data in the mountainous area of northwestern Spain, covering an area of more then 232 km² of floodplains. On the other hand, a hydrometeorological model has been developed (Clark semidistributed unit hydrograph) in the Sarria River basin (155 km², NW Spain). This basin is not gauged, hence the model was subjected to a goodness-of-fit test of its parameter (curve number) by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The peak flows obtained by means of the hydrological model were used for hydraulic modeling (one-phase, one-dimensional and steady flow) in a 4 km² urban stretch of the river bed. The delineation of surface areas affected by floods since 1918, as well as those analyzed subsequent to the geomorphological study, reveals a high degree of reliability in the delineation of the flooded areas with frequent recurrence intervals (<50 years). If we compare these flooded surface areas with the estimate obtained by the hydrological-hydraulic method we can see that the latter method overestimates the extent of the surface water by 144% for very frequent recurrence intervals (>10 years) and underestimates it as the recurrence interval increases, by up to 80% less floodplain for exceptional events (>500 years). Finally, a management map is put forth combining the most reliable results available by integrating both methods. Originally presented at the Sixth International Conference on Geomorphology.