中国旱涝巨灾长期预报方法的研究

文中从影响旱涝巨灾物理机制入手,对巨灾研究采用“立体的、动态的、全方位”的思路和做法,选用1951年～2003年全国受旱涝面积七大流域主要水文站最大洪峰流量同相应的天文、海温、环流特征量等通过微机计算,从2000多万数据中选出6％相关系数大于0．4的数据建立模型图,经分析验证可知：造成我国巨灾旱涝首位是海温,其次是环流特征量;而年月太阳黑子数,日月食是做好超长期预撒因子最理想指标;近日点、远日点、立春日期三者三年滑动平均指针是计算预测巨灾早涝定量值最佳指标。     

基于T/P卫星海面测高的黄东海海面地形变化探讨

利用Topex/Posedion卫星的SSHA数据对黄、东海1993-2001年期间的平均海面地形的空间形态特征、变化速率的空间分布特征及年内变化特征等3个方面进行了分析.研究结果表明,该海区9a平均海面地形的基本特征为：东南高、西北低,由东南向西北倾斜,最大高差超过90 cm;1993-2001年期间全海区均呈现海面上升趋势,上升速率值在5～8.6 mm/a之间,海面上升的空间分异表现为南快北慢,东快西慢.海面地形的年内变化在时间上呈正弦波动,空间上中、北部区域变化速度快,年较差大;南部区域变化速度慢,年较差小;变化空间特征复杂.     

南海西沙海区5～6月份辐射通量研究--整体公式建立

将南海西沙海区2000年5～6月海面辐射通量（包括太阳短波辐射、海面反射辐射、大气逆辐射和海面长波辐射）与云量、海温、气温、水汽压等气象要素进行了对比分析,发现它们之间存在一定的相关关系,利用这些关系建立了适合于计算南海西沙海区的太阳短波辐射、大气逆辐射、海面长波辐射和海面反照度的经验公式.分析结果表明,采用本文经验公式计算的各辐射通量值与实测资料的误差较一般常用经验公式的计算误差均有不同程度的减小,计算结果与实测结果在变化趋势上也具有较好的一致性.     

Improved sea-ice radiative processes in a global coupled climate model

1Introduction Seaiceplaysanimportantroleinmoderating heatandmoistureexchangesbetweentheatmosphere andtheoceanathighlatitudes.Seaicealsointeracts withthebroaderclimatesystembythepositiveice albedofeedback(Curryetal.,1995),whichamplifies projectedclimatewarmingatthehighlatitudes,andby theoceanicfeedbackinvolvingicegrowthandmelt, whichinfluencesglobalthermohalinecirculation(i.e., theNorthAtlanticDeepWaterandtheAntarcticBot- tomWater)(Walsh,1983;Barryetal.,1993). Recently,theimplementationofas…     

A three-dimensional model study on ocean dynamic response to traveling cyclone over the Huanghai Sea

On the basis of numerical simulation of the mean circulation and relevant thermal-salinity fields in June with a three-dimensional ocean model (ECOM-si), the model outputs are used as first guess of initial fields for numerical integration of the model equations and the numerical results are applied to investigating the dynamical responses of the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea (HECS) in the course of a weak land-to-sea cyclone‘s passage over the Huanghai Sea on 15-16 June 1999. Predominance of the dynamic impact of cyclone over the thermal one in June in the HECS is justified using observations and model simulations.The cyclone and its surrounding weather system, i.e,, subtropical high ridge to its south could influence current and thermal fields in the Bohai Sea, the Huanghai Sea and the northern East China Sea even though the intensity of cyclone was rather weak. The response of oceanic currents to the wind stresses driven by the cyclone and its southern subtropical high were strongly characterized by the wind drift with its extent of equivalent scale of cyclone in the horizontal and of Ekman layer in the vertical. The sea response at a given site was closely related to the transient local wind speed and direction,especially was sensitive to the local wind direction,which is demonstrated at three points locating at the southern and western Huanghai Sea and the northern East China Sea. So the sea responses at locations differed considerably from one another. Current responded to the wind stress in a simple way:directly to the wind-driven current and subsequent gradient current and slope current, etc., whereas sea temperature responded to the wind stress in two ways: directly to the cyclone-induced cooling and indirectly to water movements both in the horizontal and the vertical by the cyclone‘ s wind stress. So the sea temperature variation under the influence of cyclone was more complicate than the current. The HECS in response to the cyclone and its ambient weather system was likely to be a fast process and such a response could last at least for more than 1d. Current increased with the duration of wind stress exerted on the surface and decreased with the increasing depth. Affected by the cyclone, the maximum sea surface temperature decreased by almost 1.6℃ during the 24h cyclone.     

造山带区域相对海平面变化与全球海平面变化的不一致性

影响区域相对海平面变化的因素错综复杂,既可以单一作用,也可以相互作用;既可以受全球海平面变化的影响,也可以受局部因素的控制,因此,全球海平面与区域海平面相对变化既可以同步,也可以不同步,尤其在造山带地区可以不一致,甚至相反。只有找出这种控制主导因素,才可以把局部地质场放到全球统一场中去。     

后处理DGPS在海域调查中的研究与实践

通过分析后处理差分全球定位系统（differential global positioning system,DGPS）测量原理和其在海域调查中应用的具体事例,说明DGPS不仅使用方便、定位精度高,而且价格低廉,对其在海洋测绘领域的应用很有必要。     

强冲刷侵蚀岸段水深地形变化成因分析

海底地形变化是海洋动力变化的直接表征之一,强冲刷侵蚀岸段水深地形变化,主要是由于风暴潮等恶劣天气而形成的波浪扰动起海底表层物质成分,并由海流和风完成了对悬沙的运移所致.风暴潮引起海浪在海岸浅水处破碎,卷破波的水舌向下冲击时,在海底形成很大的旋涡,把泥沙掀动起来,在风流潮和的作用下,致使侵蚀冲刷快速的呈现,造成了水深地形的变化.一般情况下,水深地形变化较大地段由于泥沙的自然盈亏影响较小,人为的因素改变了自然平衡发生变化是重要因素.而冲刷侵蚀岸段的水深地形变化与海洋动力紧密相关,因此,研究分析海洋动力与水深地形变化的成因,对海岸工程及其防护至关重要.     

2017年春季海洋天气评述

2017年春季（3—5月）大气环流特征为：北半球极涡呈单极型分布,主体位于北冰洋上空,中高纬西风带呈5波型分布。3月,地面冷高压偏强,冷空气活动频繁。4月,环流由纬向型向经向型逐渐调整,冷空气势力减弱。5月,东北气旋明显加强,冷暖势力相当,入海气旋增多。春季,我国近海海域主要有16次8级以上大风过程,其中冷空气大风过程有7次,冷空气和温带气旋共同影响的大风过程有1次,入海温带气旋过程有4次,东北冷涡影响大风过程有3次,强对流导致雷暴大风过程1次;且有8次明显的浪高在2 m以上的大浪过程。春季共有6次比较明显的海雾过程,分别为3月1次、4月2次、5月3次。西北太平洋和南海共生成1个台风“梅花”和1个热带低压,其他各大洋共有热带气旋15个,分别为大西洋1个、东太平洋1个、南太平洋5个、南印度洋6个、北印度洋2个。     

Holocene Foraminifera as Indicators of Relative Estuarine–Lagoonal and Oceanic Influences in Estuarine Sediments of the River Murray, South Australia: Volume 53, Number 3 (2000), pages 378–391

In southeastern South Australia, the River Murray debouches through a coastal barrier separating euryhaline estuarine-lagoonal waters from the Southern Ocean. Depending upon the relative freshwater outflow of the river and ingress of the ocean, water salinity varies greatly within the lower estuary. Ammonia beccarii and Elphidium articulatum are euryhaline species of foraminifera that characterize the estuary and back-barrier Coorong Lagoon. The inner-shelf marine environment hosts an assemblage in which Discorbis dimidiatus, E. crispum, E. macelliforme, and various cibicidid species predominate. In cored sediments recovered from the shallow lower estuary, the relative abundance of A. beccarii + E. articulatum was compared with that of D. dimidiatus + E. crispum + E. macelliforme + other species. These data, and AMS radiocarbon ages determined for foraminifera and ostracods, provide evidence of a change from maximum oceanic influence (5255 ± 60 yr B.P.) to maximum estuarine influence (3605 ± 70 yr B.P.). Over this same time interval, sea level fell relatively by about 2 m. However, the event was also contemporaneous with falling water levels in several Victorian lakes, and it is thus attributed to onset of climatic aridity. Reduced precipitation in the River Murray catchment and reduced freshwater outflow enhanced development of the flood-tide delta and constriction of the mouth.