Relationship Between the Number of Summer Typhoons Engendered over the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea and Main Climatic Conditions in the Preceding Winter and Spring

Based on the monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) data, and tropical cyclone data from the Typhoon Annual and Tropical Cyclone Annual edited by China Meteorological Administration, the relationship between the number of tropical cyclones (with the strongest wind ≥17 m s-1, including tropical storm, strong tropical storm, and typhoon, simply called typhoon in this paper)engendered over the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea in summer and the associated climate conditions is studied. First, the characteristics and di?erences of the climatic conditions between the years with more typhoons and those with fewer typhoons are compared. The results show that the summer typhoon has a close relationship with SST (sea surface temperature) and ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone) anomalies in the preceding winter and spring. With a La Niena like SST anomaly (SSTA) pattern in the preceding winter and spring, the ITCZ will move northwestward and be enhanced around 160°E in the equatorial central Pacific from the preceding winter to spring.The activity of the Pacific ITCZ is in general stronger and its location is more northward than usual, especially in the typhoon genesis region in West Pacific. This background is propitious to have more typhoons in summer. On the other hand, an El Nieno like SSTA pattern in the preceding winter will be companied with weaker ITCZ activities, and its location is more southward over the equatorial western Pacific from the preceding winter to spring; this background is propitious to have fewer typhoons in summer. In the year with more typhoons, the warm SST over West Pacific in the preceding winter provides a favorable condition for typhoon fromation in the following summer. It enhances the convergence in the troposphere and increases the water vapor supply to the warm SST region. In the following spring, the perturbation of the tropical ITCZ plays a more important role.When the ITCZ moves northward in spring, anomalous convergence will appear over the warm SST region and inspire the positive feedback between the large-scale moisture flux at low levels and the latent heat release in the atmosphere, which benefits the typhoon genesis in summer. Otherwise, if cold SST maintains over the northwestern Pacific during the preceding winter and spring, the convergence in the troposphere is disfavored and the water vapor supply to the cold SST region is reduced, which will bring about weaker ITCZ activities and the perturbation is lacking in the following spring. It then results in fewer summer typhoons.     

海底电场传感器原理及研制技术

因海底电场信号微弱，海下自然环境复杂以及海水导电介质以氯离子为主等原因，用于海下电场测量的电场传感器在材料和结构上有其特殊性。研制海底电场传感器成为开展海洋大地电磁探测的重要技术内容之一。研制过程遇到的主要技术问题有；海底电极材料的选择；电极的制作工艺；承压与密封技术；海水运动对测量产生不利影响的克服办法；水下弱信号传输的抗干扰问题，等等，阐述了对上述问题的解决办法。提出了海底电场传感器的全套研制方案。并列举了相关的室内模拟实验和海洋试验的结果。     

内蒙古苏里格庙地区晚古生代层序地层学研究

通过岩心观察 ,结合测井曲线和地震反射资料分析 ,并根据层序地层和层序界面的识别标志 ,建立了苏里格庙地区的层序地层格架 ,并将上古生界划分为 3个二级层序 (超层序组 )和 15个三级层序 ,其中本溪组和太原组的层序具二元体系域结构 ,即由海进体系域和高位体系域组成 ;山西组、石盒子组和石千峰组的层序具三元体系域结构 ,包括低位体系域、湖进体系域和高位体系域。剖析了陆表海浅陷沉积、陆表海碳酸盐岩与碎屑岩混合沉积及近岸内陆河流—三角洲—湖泊沉积超层序组 (或层序组 )中层序的发育特征 ,论述了层序的演化过程。     

北印度洋—南海海面风速和有效波高的年代际变化

采用1958年1月—2001年12月ECMWF ERA-40的10m风场资料,以及由该风场资料驱动WAVEWATCHⅢ得到的北印度洋—南海海域44a的海浪场资料,通过EOF分析、正交小波分析和M-K检测方法,分析了北印度洋—南海海域海面风场和有效波高的年代际变化特征。结果表明：北印度洋—南海海域存在3个大风、大浪区,其中亚丁湾以东洋面风力最强,有效波高最高;表面风场和有效波高存在35、15和3a的主周期变化,并自20世纪70年代中期以来,年平均风场和有效波高均存在明显增强趋势,1977年为突变起始年;年平均海表10m风速和有效波高随时间增大主要是由冬季和春季海表10m风速和有效波高随时间增大引起的;冬、秋季海面风场与有效波高的年际、年代际变化周期较一致,冬季以35～40a的周期为主,秋季以11～12a的周期为主。     

基于LSTM的海洋表面短期风速预测研究

为实现对海面风速精确的短期预测,提出了一种基于长短期记忆(LSTM,longshort-termmemory)神经网络的短期风速预测模型,选取OceanSITES数据库中单个浮标站点采集的风速历史数据作为模型输入,经过训练设置最佳参数等步骤,实现了以LSTM方法,对该站点所在海区海面风速在各季节性代表月份海面风速的24 h短期预测。同时通过不同预测时长的实验以及与BP(back propagation)神经网络神经网络和径向基函数神经网络(radialbasisfunctionneuralnetwork,RBF)的预测效果对比实验,证明了LSTM预测方法相比上述两种神经网络预测方法,在海表面风速预测应用中的优越性。最后通过多个海域对应的站点风速数据预测实验,证明了LSTM神经网络模型的普遍适用性,由相关系数和预测误差的分析可知该方法具备应对急剧变化数据的预测稳定性,可以作为海洋表面风速短期预测的一种可靠方法。     

由ERS-1波形重构确定我国近海平均海平面

近海岸区域平均海面高在大地测量学、物理海洋学以及地球物理学研究中具有非常重要的意义.受各种条件的制约和限制,目前卫星测高技术主要应用于深海区域,在近海区域尤其是海岸线附近区域的应用几乎为空白.本文根据ERS-1测高卫星回波波形特征,采用五参数线性模型,由最小二乘拟合方法,对近海区域尤其是靠近海岸线附近的ERS-1测高波形数据进行波形重构.比较波形重构前、后解算平均海面高,表明波形重构技术不仅明显改善了解算近海海面高的精度,而且增加了近海测高海平面的分辨率,并使卫星测高有效观测延伸至海岸线附近.随后,本文利用波形重构后海面高数据构造了近海多年平均海平面,并对我国近海海平面特征进行了初步分析.     

Sea Level Prediction in the Yellow Sea From Satellite Altimetry With a Combined Least Squares-Neural Network Approach

Accessible high-quality observation datasets and proper modeling process are critically required to accurately predict sea level rise in coastal areas. This study focuses on developing and validating a combined least squares-neural network approach applicable to the short-term prediction of sea level variations in the Yellow Sea, where the periodic terms and linear trend of sea level change are fitted and extrapolated using the least squares model, while the prediction of the residual terms is performed by several different types of artificial neural networks. The input and output data used are the sea level anomalies (SLA) time series in the Yellow Sea from 1993 to 2016 derived from ERS-1/2, Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1/2, and Envisat satellite altimetry missions. Tests of different neural network architectures and learning algorithms are performed to assess their applicability for predicting the residuals of SLA time series. Different neural networks satisfactorily provide reliable results and the root mean square errors of the predictions from the proposed combined approach are less than 2?cm and correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SLA are up to 0.87. Results prove the reliability of the combined least squares-neural network approach on the short-term prediction of sea level variability close to the coast.     

Late Quaternary paleo sea level geomorphological markers of opposite vertical movements at Salina volcanic island (Aeolian Arc)

Raised marine terraces and submerged insular shelves are used through an integrated approach as markers of relative sea level changes along the flanks of the Salina volcanic island (Aeolian Arc, southern Italy) for the purpose of evaluating its crustal vertical deformation pattern through time. Paleo sea level positions are estimated for the terrace inner margins exposed subaerially at different elevations and the erosive shelf edges recognized offshore at different depths. Compared with the eustatic sea levels at the main highstands (for the terraces) and lowstands (for the shelf edges) derived from the literature, these paleo sea level markers allowed us to reconstruct the interplay among different processes shaping the flanks of the island and, in particular, to quantify the pattern, magnitudes and rates of vertical movements affecting the different sectors of Salina since the time of their formation. A uniform uplift process at rates of 0.35 m ka⁻¹ during the Last Interglacial is estimated for Salina (extended to most of the Aeolian Arc) as evidence of a regional (tectonic) vertical deformation affecting the sub-volcanic basement in a subduction-related geodynamic context. Before that, a dominant subsidence at rates of 0.39–0.56 m ka⁻¹ is instead suggested for the time interval between 465 ka (MIS 12) and the onset of the Last Interglacial (MIS 5.5, 124 ka). By matching the insular shelf edges with the main lowstands of the sea level curve, a relative age attribution is provided for the (mostly) submerged volcanic centres on which the deepest (and oldest) insular shelves were carved, with insights on the chronological development of the older stages of Salina and the early emergence of the island. The shift from subsidence to uplift at the Last Interglacial suggests a major geodynamic change and variation of the stress regime acting on the Aeolian sub-volcanic basement. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

HY-2 扫描辐射计风速数据产品与平台基观测数据的比较研究

基于南海北部PY30-1平台上2012年2月至9月测风仪观测的风速数据,开展了HY-2扫描辐射计风速数据比较研究。选取时空匹配窗口为5 min和25 km,利用HY-2扫描辐射计RM 100,70和35 km分辨率3种风速数据,分别与平台观测数据进行了比较。比较结果表明:在南海北部海域,HY-2扫描辐射计100 km分辨率风速和平台观测风速的均方根偏差为3.86 m/s;70 km分辨率风速和平台观测风速的均方根偏差为10.52 m/s;35 km分辨率风速和平台观测风速的均方根偏差为5.54 m/s。还进一步比较了有雨和无雨两种情况下HY-2扫描辐射计和平台数据的偏差,结果表明:有雨和无雨条件下都是100 km分辨率的数据偏差最小。这为在我国南海北部海域应用HY-2扫描辐射计的风速数据产品的选择提供了依据。     

Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Variation of the Western Edge of theWestern North Pacific Subtropical High During Early Summer and the Influenceof Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

This study reveals that the interannual variability of the western edge of the western North Pacific(WNP)subtropical high(WNPSH) in early summer experienced an interdecadal decrease around 1990. Correspondingly, the zonal movement of the WNPSH and the zonal extension of the high-pressure anomaly over the WNP(WNPHA) in abnormal years possess smaller ranges after 1990. The different influences of the tropical SSTAs are important for this interdecadal change, which exhibit slow El Nino decaying pat...