气候变化、土地利用/覆被变化及CO2浓度升高对滦河流域径流的影响

在构建分布式水文模型与生物地球化学模型的耦合模型（DTVGM-CASACNP）及应用元胞自动机-马尔科夫（CA-Markov）土地利用预测模型基础上,以滦河流域为例分析气候变化、土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）及CO₂浓度升高对径流的影响。研究结果表明: DTVGM-CASACNP耦合模型以及CA-Markov模型在滦河流域均具有较好的适用性;气候变化与土地利用/植被覆盖变化对滦河流域径流的影响较CO₂浓度升高的影响程度大;未来不同情景下滦河流域2020—2049年径流呈减小趋势,大部分情景下年径流较基准年减少,与非汛期相比,滦河流域未来汛期径流对不同情景更敏感,总体上在汛期径流相对基准年减少,而在非汛期径流相对基准年增加。     

黑龙江冰坝预报方法研究

在分析高寒山区河流水文气象特点、河道特性的基础上,探索了黑龙江冰坝的成因,计算了河槽水(冰)量、融雪径流量、融冻期降水径流量、临界冰盖强度,建立了冰坝最高水位预报模型,使以往预报方法得到了改进,并具有了物理成因理论基础,可提高预报的准确率。     

基于径流对气候变化敏感性指标的多源数据质量评估

准确评估径流对气候变化的敏感性对水资源管理至关重要。多源气象水文数据集已被广泛应用于径流对气候变化敏感性的分析中,但目前尚无研究从径流敏感性的角度评价不同数据集。基于中国6个不同气候条件流域的实测气象水文资料,本文计算了径流对降水和潜在蒸散发变化的敏感性,并以此为基准评估4类数据集GLDAS、ISIMIP2a、ISIMIP2b、CMIP6 共45套子数据集的径流敏感性模拟效果。结果表明：GLDAS数据集模拟精度较低,CMIP6、ISIMIP2a、ISIMIP2b数据集模拟精度差异较小;3套子数据集ISIMIP2a中的CLM4.0、CMIP6中的UKESM1-0-LL、MIROC6在6个流域均具有较好的径流敏感性模拟效果,可适用于不同气候条件下的径流敏感性模拟与演化趋势分析。本文研究结果可为气候变化影响下中国稀缺资料流域的径流和水资源变化预估提供参考。     

1958~2015年疏勒河上游出山径流变化及其气候因素分析

利用1958~2015年疏勒河出山口昌马堡水文站径流资料以及同期流域气象资料,揭示了疏勒河出山径流及其对流域气候变化的响应。结果表明：总体上,疏勒河出山径流量呈现增加趋势,特别是20世纪90年代后期以来,出山径流增加趋势更为明显,但近几年,疏勒河出山径流量缓慢回落,21世纪初暂时成为代际变化的拐点。研究亦显示,疏勒河出山径流对河源处高海拔山区气候变化的响应更为敏感,出山径流年际变化实际受到山区气候因素的共同影响,不同时段各因素影响强度具有一定差异;降水是出山径流变化的主控因素,但气温升高导致冰雪融化加快是近年来出山径流增长较快的重要原因。定量分析表明,20世纪90年代后期以来气温等对径流影响比重超过60%,而降水约为30%左右。     

川东北飞仙关组高含H2S气藏特征与TSR对烃类的消耗作用

四川盆地川东北地区飞仙关组近年来发现了罗家寨、渡口河、铁山坡、普光等多个大、中型气田，它们均以高含硫化氢（H2S在气体组分中占10%~17%，平均为14%）为最显著特征。深入研究后发现，虽然这些大型鲕滩气藏储量规模较大，单井产量高；但是这些气藏充满度普遍偏低（在25%~91%之间），压力系数不高（大部分小于1.2）。从成藏条件来看，该区鲕粒溶蚀孔隙发育，有效储层厚度大，二叠系龙潭组、志留系龙马溪组优质烃源岩十分发育，油气源充沛，而且由断层构成的疏导体系发育，泥岩及膏质岩类组成的盖层封盖性良好，因此气藏的低充满度现象，可能是圈闭中发生过大量烃类的损耗或消耗。由于川东北飞仙关组H2S是烃类和硫酸盐在储层中发生热化学反应（TSR）形成的，气藏中硫化氢含量与压力系数、地层水矿化度、烃类含量等都存在反相关关系，因此飞仙关组高含硫化氢气藏压力系数小、充满度低，很可能是烃类被TSR大量消耗和储集空间增容所致。     

Energy coefficients for a propeller series

The efficiency for a propeller is calculated by energy coefficients. These coefficients are related to four types of losses, i.e. the axial, the rotational, the frictional, and the finite blade number loss, and one gain, i.e. the axial gain. The energy coefficients are derived by use of the potential theory with the propeller modelled as an actuator disk. The efficiency based on the energy coefficients is calculated for a propeller series. The results show a good agreement between the efficiency based on the energy coefficients and the efficiency obtained by a vortex-lattice method.     

苏北沿岸水的去向与淡水来源估算

本文基于2006—2007年春、夏、秋、冬季CTD观测的盐度资料分析了苏北沿岸水盐度的季节变化特征,并利用冬、夏季盐度场变化估算了苏北沿岸水的淡水来源。结果表明:冬季苏北沿岸水在东北季风的驱动下顺岸南下,在离开苏北浅滩后转向东南进入东海;夏季低盐的苏北沿岸水分多支向北、向东流出沿岸区,后者汇入南黄海夏季冷水团环流中。估算结果表明苏北沿岸水的淡水来源主要是苏北沿岸的入海径流水,约占总量的65%,次之是降水/蒸发量通量和长江冲淡水沿江苏沿岸的北向扩展。     

Improvement of mid- to long-term runoff forecasting based on physical causes: application in Nenjiang basin,China

Abstract

An artificial neural network, mid- to long-term runoff forecasting model of the Nenjiang basin was established by deciding predictors using the physical analysis method, combined with long-term hydrological and meteorological information. The forecasting model was gradually improved while considering physical factors, such as the main flood season and non-flood season by stage, runoff sources and hydrological processes. The average relative errors in the simulation tests of the prediction model were 0.33 in the main flood season and 0.26 in the non-flood season, indicating that the prediction accuracy during the non-flood season was greater than that in the main flood season. Based on these standards, forecasting accuracy evaluation was conducted by comparing forecasting results with actual conditions: for 2001 to 2003 data, the pass rate of forecasting in the main flood season was 50%, while it was 93% in the non-flood season; for 2001–2010, the respective values were 45% and 72%. The accuracy of prediction was found to decrease as the length of record increases.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis, Associate editor A. Viglione

Citation Li, H.-Y. Tian, L., Wu, Y., and Xie, M., 2013. Improvement of mid- to long-term runoff forecasting based on physical causes: application in Nenjiang basin, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1414–1422.     

Surface/groundwater interactions in the Bani and Nakambe rivers,tributaries of the Niger and Volta basins,West Africa

Abstract

The upper Niger and Volta rivers exhibit a great and highly contrasting variability of inter-annual runoff. The Bani River, the largest tributary to the Niger River in Mali, shows a dramatic decrease in runoff after the 1970s, with the result that many boreholes in the region have dried up since the drought began. In contrast, the Nakambe River (Upper Volta basin, in Burkina Faso) shows an increase in runoff for the same period, leading to unexpected flood peaks that damaged infrastructures. The contribution that the groundwater and its variability make to surface runoff variability is assessed in this study by comparing the data of the national groundwater monitoring networks of Mali and Burkina Faso to surface runoff. Several variables are compared at the basin scale: the date of the maximum level of the water table, the annual rainfall, discharge, low flows and depletion coefficients. Variability in the low flows of the Bani River is well correlated to a decrease in the water table. Since 1970, the greater decrease in runoff in comparison to the rainfall decrease is due to a reduction in the baseflow, related to the cumulated rainfall deficit. Concerning the Nakambe River, the runoff increase is not supported by a water table increase, but is due to the increase in runoff coefficient related to land degradation.     

Improvement and comparison of the rainfall–runoff methods in SWAT at the monsoonal watershed of Baocun,Eastern China

ABSTRACT

A new physics-based rainfall–runoff method of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was developed, which integrates a water balance (WB) approach with the variable source area (WB-VSA). This approach was further compared with four methods—soil-water-dependent curve number (CN-Soil), evaporation-dependent curve number (CN-ET), Green and Ampt equation (G&A) and WB—in a monsoonal watershed, Eastern China. The regional sensitivity analysis shows that volumetric efficiency coefficient (VE) with river discharges is sensitive to the most parameters of all approaches. The results of model calibration against VE demonstrate that WB-VSA is the most accurate owing to its reflection of the spatial variation of runoff generation as affected by topography and soil properties. Other methods can also mimic baseflow well, but the G&A and CN-ET simulate floods much worse than the saturation excess runoff approaches (WB-VSA, WB and CN-Soil). Meanwhile, CN-Soil as an empirical method fails to simulate groundwater levels. By contrast, WB-VSA captures them best.

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae