Influence of spatial variations of microtopography and infiltration on surface runoff and field scale hydrological connectivity

Surface runoff on agricultural fields arises when rainfall exceeds infiltration. Excess water ponding in and flowing through local microtopography increases the hydrological connectivity of fields. In turn, an increased level of hydrological connectivity leads to a higher surface runoff flux at the field boundaries. We investigated the functional hydrological connectivity of synthetical elevation fields with varying statistical properties. For this purpose, we developed an object-oriented ponding and redistribution model to which Philip’s infiltration model was coupled. The connectivity behaviour is determined by the presence of depressions with a large area and spatial organization of microtopography in rills or channels. The presence of microdepressions suppresses the effect of the spatial variation of infiltration properties. Connectivity behaviour of a field with a varying spatial distribution of infiltration properties can be predicted by transforming the unique connectivity function that was defined for a designated microtopography.     

Comparison of two rainfall–runoff models: effects of conceptualization on water budget components

Rainfall–runoff models with different conceptual structures for the hydrological processes can be calibrated to effectively reproduce the hydrographs of the total runoff, while resulting in water budget components that are essentially different. This finding poses an open question on the reliability of rainfall–runoff models in reproducing hydrological components other than those used for calibration. In an effort to address this question, we use data from the Glafkos catchment in western Greece to calibrate and compare the ENNS model, a research-oriented lumped model developed for the river Enns in Austria developed for the river Enns in Austria, with the operational MIKE SHE model. Model performance is assessed in the light of the conceptual/structural differences of the modelled hydrological processes, using indices calculated independently for each year, rather than for the whole calibration period, since the former are stricter. We show that even small differences in the representation of hydrological processes may impact considerably on the water budget components that are not measured (i.e. not used for model calibration). From all water budget components, direct runoff exhibits the highest sensitivity to structural differences and related model parameters.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang     

Hydropedology of a mildly‐arid loess covered area,southern Israel

Extensive loess covered areas characterize the mildly arid areas of western Israel, where average annual rainfall is 280 mm. Hydrological data point to a peculiar hydrological behavior of the ephemeral streams. The frequency of sporadic flash floods is very high. However, even in extreme rain events peak discharges are extremely low. Hydrographs are usually characterized by very steep rising and falling limbs, representative of saturated areas, extending over a limited part of the watershed. Following this observation we advanced the hypothesis that storm channel runoff originated in the channel itself, with negligible contribution from the adjoining hillslopes. The study was based on two complementary approaches. The hydrological approach was based on the detailed analysis of rainfall–runoff relationships in a small watershed (11 km²) and on the analysis of the hydrological characteristics of the drainage network. The second approach was based on the toposequence concept. Several boreholes were dug along a hillslope 400 m long. Chemical data obtained show no significant difference in the downslope direction. Similar results were also obtained for the particle size distribution and soil moisture content. Data obtained perfectly fit the concept of ‘Partial Area Contribution’ as it presents an extreme case of hydrological discontinuity at the hillslope–channel interface. The lack of pedological trends in the downslope direction is an additional indication of the limited connectivity between the hillslopes and the adjoining channel. The limited connectivity is attributed to the prevalence of low rain intensities in the study area. The present study is also relevant to our understanding of pedological processes in dryland areas. The high frequency of intermittent low intensity rainstorms limits runoff generation and flow distances, and casts doubt on the general application of the toposequence approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An approach to analysing plot scale infiltration and runoff responses to rainfall of fluctuating intensity

Simulated rainfall of fluctuating intensity was applied to runoff plots on bare dryland soils in order to explore a new method for analysing the non‐steady‐state responses of infiltration and overland flow. The rainfall events all averaged 10 mm/h but included intensity bursts of up to 70 mm/h and lasting 5–15 min, as well as periods of low intensity and intermittency of up to 25 min. Results were compared with traditional steady‐state estimates of infiltrability made under simulated rainfall sustained at a fixed intensity of 10 mm/h. Mean event infiltration rate averaged 13.6% higher under fluctuating intensities, while runoff ratios averaged only 63% of those seen under constant intensity. In order to understand the changing soil infiltrability, up to three affine Horton infiltration equations were fitted to segments of each experiment. All equations had the same final infiltrability f_c, but adjusted values for coefficients f₀ (initial infiltrability) and K_f (exponential decay constant) were fitted for periods of rainfall that followed significant hiatuses in rainfall, during which subsurface redistribution allowed near‐surface soil suction to recover. According to the fitted Horton equations, soil infiltrability recovered by up 10–24 mm/h during intra‐event rainfall hiatuses of 15 to 20‐min duration, contributing to higher overall event infiltration rates and to reduced runoff ratios. The recovery of infiltrability also reduced the size of runoff peaks following periods of low intensity rainfall, compared with the predictions based on single Horton infiltration equations, and in some cases, no runoff at all was recorded from late intensity peaks. The principal finding of this study is that, using a set of affine equations, the intra‐event time variation of soil infiltrability can be tracked through multiple intensity bursts and hiatuses, despite the lack of steady‐state conditions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of draining hilly lands on runoff and on‐site erosion: a case study from humid Ethiopia

The use of drainage ditches on farmland has an impact on erosion processes both on‐site and off‐site, though their environmental impacts are not unequivocal. Here we study the runoff response and related rill erosion after installing drainage ditches and assess the effects of stone bunds in north Ethiopia. Three different land management systems were studied in 10 cropland catchments around Wanzaye during the rainy season of 2013: (1) the exclusive use of drainage ditches (locally called feses), (2) the exclusive use of stone bunds, and (3) a mixture of both systems. Stone bunds are an effective soil and water conservation technique, making the land more resistant against on‐site erosion, and allowing feses to be installed at a larger angle with the contour. The mean rill volumes for the 10 studied cropland catchments during the rainy season of 2013 was 3.73 ± 4.20 m³ ha^?1 corresponding to a soil loss of 5.72 ± 6.30 ton ha^?1. The establishment of feses causes larger rill volumes (R = 0.59, N = 10), although feses are perceived as the best way to avoid soil erosion when no stone bunds are present. The use of feses increases event‐based runoff coefficients (RCs) on cropland from c. 5% to values up to 39%. Also, a combination of low stone bund density and high feses density results in a higher RC, whereas catchments with a high stone bund density and low feses density have a lower RC. Peak runoff discharges decrease when stone bund density increases, whereas feses density is positively related to the peak runoff discharge. A multiple linear relation in which both feses and stone bund densities are used as explanatory variable, performs best in explaining runoff hydrograph peakedness (R² = 83%). Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effective impervious area for runoff in urban watersheds

Effective impervious area (EIA), or the portion of total impervious area (TIA) that is hydraulically connected to the storm sewer system, is an important parameter in determining actual urban runoff. EIA has implications in watershed hydrology, water quality, environment, and ecosystem services. The overall goal of this study is to evaluate the application of successive weighted least square (WLS) method to urban catchments with different sizes and various hydrologic conditions to determine EIA fraction. Other objectives are to develop insights on the data selection issues, EIA fraction, EIA/TIA ratio, and runoff source area patterns in urban catchments. The successive WLS method is applied to 50 urban catchments with different sizes from less than 1 ha to more than 2000 ha in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Texas, USA as well as Europe, Canada, and Australia. The average, median, and standard deviation of EIA fractions for the 42 catchments with residential land uses are found to be 0.222, 0.200, and 0.113, respectively. These values for the EIA/TIA ratio in the same 42 catchments are 0.50, 0.48, and 0.21, respectively. While the EIA/TIA results indicate the importance of EIA, 95% prediction interval of the mean EIA/TIA is found to be 0.07 to 0.93, which shows that using an average value for this ratio in each land use to determine EIA from TIA in ungauged urban watersheds can be misleading. The successive WLS method was robust and is recommended for determining EIA in gauged urban catchments. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于BMA多模型组合的疏勒河径流预测研究

准确可靠的径流预测对于水资源的科学管理与规划具有重要意义,特别是在水资源紧缺的干旱半干旱地区,径流预测对流域内水资源高效利用与水利工程经济运行具有重要现实意义。针对径流预测通常采用单一方法进行建模与预测,难以利用各预测模型优势的问题,本文利用极限学习机（ELM）模型、支持向量机（SVM）模型、多元自适应回归样条（MARS）等机器学习方法建立了疏勒河上游未来1~7日的径流预测模型。在此基础上,运用贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）方法对ELM、SVM、MARS模型的预测结果进行组合,构建了径流组合预测模型,以获取更可靠的预测结果,并采用蒙特卡洛抽样方法获取BMA的95%置信区间,对预测结果进行了不确定性分析。结果表明：ELM、SVM、MARS模型以及BMA组合模型均适用于干旱半干旱地区的中长期日径流预测;BMA的预测精度较单一模型更高,能够提供更准确的预测值;BMA的95%置信区间对实测值覆盖率高,同时能够提供较好的确定性预测和概率预测结果。表明BMA在资料有限的条件下,表现出较单一模型更高的预测性能,可以成为干旱半干旱地区中长期日径流预测的有效方法。     

气候变化对黄河源区水资源的影响

利用气候模型结果和大尺度分布式水文模型评估黄河源区未来的水资源.根据IPCC DDC的13个系列的GCMs成果,结合黄河源区的实测气象资料,分析了该地区气候在未来100 a内的可能变化;建立了考虑融雪和冻土影响的分布式水文模型,经验证该模型能够适用于黄河源区.计算出了相应的径流情景,分析了黄河源区水量尤其是水资源特性(径流的年内、年际分布)的可能变化;对南水北调西线工程的需水量进行了简单评估.     

基于机器学习模型的淮河流域中长期径流预报研究

准确可靠的中长期径流预报是支撑水资源科学调配、提高水资源利用效率的关键。本研究采用AdaBoost模型(AdB)、随机森林模型(RF)和支持向量机模型(SVM)进行淮河流域王家坝和蚌埠站当年11月至次年10月共12个月的中长期径流预报研究。采用置换准确度重要性度量法从130项气象-气候因子及前期降雨/流量构建的1 562个因子变量中筛选出影响各月径流的关键因子,构建了基于AdB、RF和SVM模型的各月径流预报模型,模型参数采用随机搜索技术并结合交叉验证方式确定。采用变幅误差合格率和等级(五级)预报合格率指标对模型的预报精度进行了评估。变幅误差合格率指标表明,王家坝12个月的平均合格率分别为99.8%(AdB)、96.6%(RF)和95.9%(SVM),蚌埠站分别为100%(AdB)、94.8%(RF)和93.8%(SVM);等级预报合格率指标表明,王家坝12个月的平均合格率分别为79.0%(AdB)、76.4%(RF)和79.9%(SVM),蚌埠站分别为81.0%(AdB)、75.6%(RF)和76.6%(SVM)。模型均具有较好的预报效果,但RF和SVM模型对于高流量值的预报存在偏低现象,AdB模型整体上优于RF和SVM模型。     

长江口咸潮入侵变化特征及成因分析

本文基于海洋站潮位观测数据、海平面变化影响调查信息以及长江口水文站径流量数据等,重点分析了2009−2018年长江口咸潮入侵的变化特征及其影响因素,分析结果表明：(1)长江口咸潮入侵季节变化特征明显。咸潮一般从每年的9−10月开始入侵,翌年4−5月结束。3月咸潮入侵次数最多,达12次。2009−2018年,长江口咸潮入侵次数和咸潮持续时间均呈下降趋势,2009年长江口咸潮入侵次数最多,达13次,时间均发生在10月至翌年的4月;咸潮持续时间年际变化较大,2011年咸潮入侵持续时间最长,累计为55 d。2015−2018年,咸潮入侵次数和入侵持续时间均明显减少,2018年没有监测到咸潮入侵过程。(2) 1−4月,长江口处于季节性低海平面期,且同期径流量少,但是受东亚季风影响,持续的增水过程使得增减水−径流量综合影响指数明显偏高,其中1月、2月、3月的影响指数分别为1.5、1.9和1.6,该时段长江口的咸潮入侵过程主要受增减水的影响。5−7月,长江口径流量明显增加,海平面−径流量综合影响指数均小于0,径流的作用强于海水上溯。8月,长江口径流量开始下降,虽然季节海平面较高,但是长江口呈现明显的减水过程,海平面−径流量和增减水−径流量的综合影响指数分别为0.1和−1.6,基本不会发生咸潮入侵。9月,长江口处于季节高海平面期,并且以增水为主,海平面−径流量和增减水−径流量的综合影响指数较大,分别为1.2和1.0,易发生咸潮入侵。10月、11月长江口海平面−径流量的综合影响指数分别为1.5和0.8,径流影响弱于海水上溯,易发生咸潮入侵。(3) 2009−2018年发生的48次咸潮入侵过程有2/3恰逢天文大潮。在某些年份长江口沿海基础海平面偏高,若持续增水恰逢天文大潮,则加剧咸潮入侵的影响程度。