Storm‐event rainfall–runoff modelling approach for ungauged sites in Taiwan

This work develops a top‐down modelling approach for storm‐event rainfall–runoff model calibration at unmeasured sites in Taiwan. Twenty‐six storm events occurring in seven sub‐catchments in the Kao‐Ping River provided the analytical data set. Regional formulas for three important features of a streamflow hydrograph, i.e. time to peak, peak flow, and total runoff volume, were developed via the characteristics of storm event and catchment using multivariate regression analysis. Validation of the regional formulas demonstrates that they reasonably predict the three features of a streamflow hydrograph at ungauged sites. All of the sub‐catchments in the study area were then adopted as ungauged areas, and the three streamflow hydrograph features were calculated by the regional formulas and substituted into the fuzzy multi‐objective function for rainfall–runoff model calibration. Calibration results show that the proposed approach can effectively simulate the streamflow hydrographs at the ungauged sites. The simulated hydrographs more closely resemble observed hydrographs than hydrographs synthesized using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) dimensionless unit hydrograph method, a conventional method for hydrograph estimation at ungauged sites in Taiwan. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling observed and future runoff from a glacierized tropical catchment (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)

Monthly runoff from the 34.3% glacierized tropical catchment of Llanganuco in the tropical Cordillera Blanca, Perú, is successfully simulated and compared with a measured 44 year time series. In the investigation area, the climate is characterized by all-year round homogenous temperature conditions and a strong variability in air humidity and moisture content of the atmosphere. Thus, contrary to the mid latitudes, the seasonal variation in glacier melt strongly depends on moisture-related variables, rather than on air temperature. The here presented ITGG-2.0-R model aims for these requirements. The lack of moisture-related input data other than precipitation demands for an intermediate calibration step. Net shortwave radiation, the emissivity of the atmosphere and a sublimation/melt ratio are related to precipitation amounts. Runoff is well simulated and correlates with the measured record with r² = 0.76. Seasonally obtained r² are only slightly smaller. On a long-term, the cumulative deviation is minor, and the mean annual cycle of runoff is reproduced rather well (r² = 0.99). Based on four different IPCC climate change scenarios, future runoff is simulated. All runoff scenarios are modelled for the respective steady-state glacier extent. This leads to a reduction in the glacier size and a decreased amount of glacier melt. On the other hand, direct runoff increases due to larger glacier free areas. Consequently, mean annual runoff remains almost unchanged, but the seasonality intensifies considerably with more runoff during the wet and less runoff during the dry season.     

The generation and redistribution of overland flow on a massive oxic soil in a eucalypt woodland within the semi-arid tropics of North Australia

There is a dearth of knowledge on the runoff processes of eucalypt woodland communities in the semi-arid tropics of Australia. The work was undertaken on a 100 m transect of a 0·8 degree hillslope typical of the ‘smooth plainlands’ of central-north Queensland. This paper introduces a new experimental design for measuring overland flow in such areas by way of a cascade system of unbounded runoff plots which allow the inputs and outputs between troughs to be calculated. Most storms generate overland flow. Time to overland flow ranges between 1 and 18 min where rain intensities are above 10mm hr⁻¹ and when the average detention storage of 3·6 mm is exceeded. The bare soil surfaces within the scattered grass understory control the runoff generation process through the temporal variability of field saturated hydraulic conductivity. The study demonstrated that overland flow is mainly redistributed over the freely-draining oxic soil. Some areas export more overland flow than they gain from upslope (runoff), others gain more overland flow than they export (runon). Over the study period only 2 per cent of total rain is transferred out of this 100 m transect as overland flow due to the short duration of storms, the relatively high soil permeability, and the low slope angle. The remainder adds to the large soil water store or deep drainage. The variability of runoff–runon over these ‘smooth plainlands’ highlights how results from bounded plots would be misleading in such areas.     

Investigating the use of spatial discretization of hydrological processes in conceptual rainfall runoff modelling: a case study for the meso‐scale

In this study a simple modelling approach was applied to identify the need for spatial complexity in representing hydrological processes and their variability over different scales. A data set of 18 basins was used, ranging between 8 and 4011 km² in area, located in the Nahe basin (Germany), with daily discharge values for over 30 years. Two different parsimoniously structured models were applied in lumped as well as in spatially distributed according to two distribution classifications: (1) a simple classification based on the lithology expressed in three permeability types and (2) a more complex classification based on seven dominating runoff production processes. The objective of the study was to compare the performances of the models on a local and on a regional scale as well as between the models with a view to identifying the accuracy in capturing the spatial variability of the rainfall‐runoff relationships. It was shown that the presence of a specific basin characteristic or process of the distribution classification was not related with higher model performance; only a larger basin size promoted higher model performance. The results of this study also indicated that the permeability generally contained more useful information on the spatial heterogeneity of the hydrological behaviour of the natural system than did a more detailed classification on dominating runoff generation processes. Although model performance was slightly lower for the model that used permeability as a distribution classification, consistency in its parameter values was found, which was lacking with the more complex distribution classification. The latter distribution classification had a higher flexibility to optimize towards the variability of the runoff, which resulted in higher performance, however, process representation was applied inconsistently. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rainfall–runoff trends in the south‐eastern USA: 1938–2005

An extensive dataset (230 precipitation gauges and 79 stream gauges) was used to analyse rainfall–runoff relationships in 10 subregions of a 482000 km² area in the south‐eastern USA (Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia). The average annual rainfall and runoff for this study area between 1938 and 2005 were 1201 and 439 mm, respectively. Average runoff/rainfall ratios during this period varied between 0·24 in the southernmost Coastal Plain subregion to 0·64 in the Blue Ridge Province. Watershed elevation and relief are the principal determinants governing the conversion of rainfall to runoff. Temporal rainfall variation throughout the south‐eastern USA ranges from ～40% above and below normal while the variation for runoff is higher, from ? 75% to + 100%. In any given year there can exist a ± 25–50% error in predicted runoff deviation using the annual rainfall–runoff regression. Fast Fourier Transform and autoregressive spectral analysis revealed dominant cyclicities for rainfall and runoff between 14 and 17 years. Secondary periodicities were typically between 6–7 and 10–12 years. The inferred cyclicity may be related to ENSO and/or Central North Pacific atmospheric phenomena. Mann–Kendall analyses indicate that there were no consistent statistically significant temporal trends with respect to south‐eastern US rainfall and runoff during the study period. The results of U‐tests similarly indicated that rainfall between 1996 and 2005 was not statistically higher or lower than during earlier in the study period. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two‐dimensional physically based finite element runoff model for small agricultural watersheds: I. Model development

Soil erosion by water is the root cause of ecological degradation in the Shiwalik foothills of Northern India. Simulation of runoff and its component processes is a pre‐requisite to develop the management strategies to tackle the problem, successfully. A two‐dimensional physically based distributed numerical model, ROMO2D has been developed to simulate runoff from small agricultural watersheds on an event basis. The model employs the 2‐D Richards equation with sink term to simulate infiltration and soil moisture dynamics in the vadoze zone under variable rainfall conditions, and 2‐D Saint‐Venant equations under the kinematic wave approximation along with Manning's equation as the stage‐discharge equation for runoff routing. The various flow‐governing equations have been solved numerically by employing a Galerkin finite element method for spatial discretization using quadrilateral elements and finite difference techniques for temporal solutions. The ROMO2D computer program has been developed as a class‐based program, coded in C + + in such a way that with minor modifications, the model can be used to simulate runoff on a continuous basis. The model writes output for a runoff hydrograph of each storm. Model development is described in this paper and the results of model testing and field application are to be presented in a subsequent paper. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of connectivity theory to model the impact of terrace failure on runoff in semi‐arid catchments

Terraces are a common feature of Mediterranean landscapes. In many places they are no longer maintained so that the number of intact terraces is in prolonged decline. The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of terrace removal and failure on hydrological connectivity and peak discharge in an agricultural catchment (475 ha) in south‐east Spain. The situation of 2006 is compared to that in 1956 and to a scenario without terraces (S2). The spatial distribution of concentrated flow was mapped after four storms in 2006. The degree of connectivity was quantified by means of connectivity functions and related to storm characteristics, land use and topography. For 1956, 2006 and scenario S2, connectivity functions and peak discharge to the river were determined for a storm with a return period of 8·2 years. The results show that the decrease in intact terraces has led to a strong increase in connectivity and discharge. The contributing area to the river system has increased by a factor 3·2 between 1956 and 2006. If all terraces were to be removed (scenario S2), the contributing area may further increase by a factor 6·0 compared to 2006. The spatial extent of concentrated flow and the degree of connectivity are related to storm magnitude as expressed by the erosivity index (EI₃₀). Although a large part of the concentrated flow (25–50%) occurs on dirt roads, it appears that croplands become a major source of runoff with increasing rainfall. The results suggest that connectivity theory can be used to improve rainfall–runoff models in semi‐arid areas. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climatic control on river discharge simulations,Zackenberg River drainage basin,northeast Greenland

A spatially distributed, physically based, hydrologic modeling system (MIKE SHE) was applied to quantify intra‐ and inter‐annual discharge from the snow and glacierized Zackenberg River drainage basin (512 km²; 20% glacier cover) in northeast Greenland. Evolution of snow accumulation, distribution by wind‐blown snow, blowing‐snow sublimation, and snow and ice surface melt were simulated by a spatially distributed, physically based, snow‐evolution modelling system (SnowModel) and used as input to MIKE SHE. Discharge simulations were performed for three periods 1997–2001 (calibration period), 2001–2005 (validation period), and 2071–2100 (scenario period). The combination of SnowModel and MIKE SHE shows promising results; the timing and magnitude of simulated discharge were generally in accordance with observations (R² = 0·58); however, discrepancies between simulated and observed discharge hydrographs do occur (maximum daily difference up to 44·6 m³ s^?1 and up to 9% difference between observed and simulated cumulative discharge). The model does not perform well when a sudden outburst of glacial dammed water occurs, like the 2005 extreme flood event. The modelling study showed that soil processes related to yearly change in active layer depth and glacial processes (such as changes in yearly glacier area, seasonal changes in the internal glacier drainage system, and the sudden release of glacial bulk water storage) need to be determined, for example, from field studies and incorporated in the models before basin runoff can be quantified more precisely. The SnowModel and MIKE SHE model only include first‐order effects of climate change. For the period 2071–2100, future IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios based on the HIRHAM regional climate model and HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations indicated a mean annual Zackenberg runoff about 1·5 orders of magnitude greater (around 650 mmWE year^?1) than from today 1997–2005 (around 430 mmWE year^?1), mainly based on changes in negative glacier net mass balance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄土土壤结皮对产流临界雨强的影响分析

依据野外资料,从影响产流的各项因子出发,分析黄土高原典型区土壤结皮对产流临界雨强条件的影响,得出:在该区特殊的超渗产流方式下,土壤结皮降低入渗,使得产流时的临界雨强条件降低,因而大大提高了产流的可能性。但是,在实际情况下,雨强变异很大,应考虑不同雨强情况下土壤结皮对产流量的影响。而在室内条件下,各项因子均是可控的,一般情况下,雨强恒定,产流时的临界雨强条件降低,意味着产流提早,必然带来产流量的增加。     

The contribution of throughflow to storm runoff: An evaluation of a chemical mixing model

The contribution of throughflow to storm runoff is examined using a chemical mixing model. The results predict that throughflow is an important component of storm runoff particularly during the period of stream recession. Supporting hydrological data suggests that a major throughflow input occurs coincident with the stream discharge peak. The two sets of results therefore conflict in the predicted timing of the throughflow response.