Modelling spatial patterns of urban growth in Africa

The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving exceptionally high urban expansion rates that will induce significant socio-economic, environmental and health changes. In order to prepare for these changes, it is important to better understand urban growth dynamics in Africa and better predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions. Previous work on urban expansion has been carried out at the city level or at the global level with a relatively coarse 5–10 km resolution. The main objective of the present paper was to develop a modelling approach at an intermediate scale in order to identify factors that influence spatial patterns of urban expansion in Africa. Boosted Regression Tree models were developed to predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions in every large African city. Urban change data between circa 1990 and circa 2000 available for 20 large cities across Africa were used as training data. Results showed that the urban land in a 1 km neighbourhood and the accessibility to the city centre were the most influential variables. Results obtained were generally more accurate than results obtained using a distance-based urban expansion model and showed that the spatial pattern of small, compact and fast growing cities were easier to simulate than cities with lower population densities and a lower growth rate. The simulation method developed here will allow the production of spatially detailed urban expansion forecasts for 2020 and 2025 for Africa, data that are increasingly required by global change modellers.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: USA, Eine Geographische Landeskunde , Vol. I, Der Grossraum in Strukturellem, Wandel, 3rd Ed. Helmut Blume . Introduction to Remote Sensing . James B. Campbell . The Sounds of People and Places: Readings in the Geography of American Folk and Popular Music . George O. Carney , ED. Development and Underdevelopment . John Cole . Mobility and Employment in Urban Southeast Asia: Example from Indonesia and the Philippines . Michael A. Costello , Thomas R. Leinbach , AND Richard Ulack . Soviet Asia: Economic Development and National Policy Choices . Leslie Dienes . The Third World City . David Drakakis -Smith . Scholars' Guide to Washington, DC for Cartography and Remote Sensing Imagery (maps, charts, aerial photographs, satellite images, cartographic literature and geographic information systems). Ralph E. Ehrenberg . Population and Development in the Third World . Allan AND Anne Findlay . The Early Mapping of Hawaii . Gary L. Fitzpatrick . Energetics of Physical Environment: Energetic Approaches to Physical Geography . K. J. Gregory , ED. Wildland Recreation: Ecology and Management . William E. Hammitt and David N. Cole . Agricultural Commercialization and Government Policy in Africa . J. Hinderink AND J. J. Sterkenburg . The Dynamics of American Housing . James W. Hughes AND George Sternlieb . Thailand: Buddhist Kingdom as Modern Nation State . Charles F. Keyes . Resolving Locational Conflict . Robert W. Lake , ED. Lands at Risk in the Third World: Local-level Perspectives . Peter D. Little and Michael M. Horowitz , EDS. Nathaniel Southgate Shaler and the Culture of American Science . David N. Livingstone . Regions: The Economics and Politics of Territory . Ann R. Markusen . Wetlands . William J. Mitsch and James G. Gosselink . Historical Geography: Progress and Prospect . Michael Pacione , ED. Loess and Periglacial Phenomena . Marton P$eacsi and Hugh M. French , EDS. Regional Management of Metropolitan Floodplains, Experience in the United States and Abroad . Rutherford H. Platt , ED. Human Cartography: Mapping the World of Man . Janos Szegö . Atlas of Great Lakes Indian History . Helen H. Tanner , ED. The Botany of Mangroves . P. B. Tomlinson . Urban Spatial Traffic Patterns . Rodney Vaughan . The Night After … Climatic and Biological Consequences of a Nuclear War . Yevgeni Velikhov , ED. Industrial Geography . H. D. Watts . Dictionary of Quotations in Geography . James O. Wheeler and Francis M. Sibley . Vermont Townscape . Norman Wiliams , Jr. , Edmund K. Kellogg and Peter M. Lavigne .     

Paleoenvironmental and paleoecological reconstruction of a freshwater oasis in savannah grassland at FLK North, Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania

The records of early hominins are commonly localized both temporally and spatially even in archaeologically rich basins like Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania. The FLK North site was discovered in 1960, but the reason for the exact location of this dense concentration of fossils and stone tools on a lake-margin flat has not been explained. We present new geological and geochemical information from six excavations in upper Bed I, which revealed up to 1.4-m-thick carbonate deposits, attesting to the presence of freshwater springs in the area surrounding FLK North. The δ¹⁸O signatures of the tufa are typical for meteoric water that has evolved during evaporation. Tuff IF that caps the sequence was deposited on uneven topography with the highest area a low-relief ridge between two faults at the archaeological site and lowest areas being sites of groundwater discharge. The model proposed here is that rainfall on adjacent highlands was transported to the basin where faults acted as conduits for water. Similar hydrogeological settings at modern lakes Manyara and Eyasi, currently support lush groundwater forest and woodland despite arid climate. FLK North may have been an “oasis” offering freshwater and shelter for consuming meat by both carnivores and hominins.     

Phylogenomic analysis of transcriptomic sequences of mitochondria and chloroplasts of essential brown algae (Phaeophyceae) in China

The chloroplast and mitochondrion of brown algae （Class Phaeophyceae of Phylum Ochrophyta） may have originated from different endosymbiosis. In this study, we carried out phylogenomic analysis to distinguish their evolutionary lineages by using algal RNA-seq datasets of the 1 000 Plants （1KP） Project and publicly available complete genomes of mitochondria and chloroplasts of Kingdom Chromista. We have found that there is a split between Class Phaeophyceae of Phylum Ochrophyta and the others （Phylum Cryptophyta and Haptophyta） in Kingdom Chromista, and identified more diversity in chloroplast genes than mitochondrial ones in their phylogenetic trees. Taxonomy resolution for Class Phaeophyceae showed that it was divided into Laminariales-Ectocarpales clade and Fucales clade, and phylogenetic positions of Kjellmaniella crassi-folia, Hizikia fusifrome and Ishige okamurai were confirmed. Our analysis provided the basic phylogenetic relationships of Chromista algae, and demonstrated their potential ability to study endosymbiotic events.     

Invasive Saltcedar (Tamarix): Its Spread from the American Southwest to the Northern Great Plains

The advance of saltcedar from the American southwest to Montana between the mid-19th and mid-20th centuries crossed the Continental Divide—a major topographic and climatic barrier to natural dispersal by southern plants. Interviews, archival information, and field observations are used to explain this advance. According to archival documents, saltcedar was planted in communities adjacent to the Bighorn River in central Wyoming as part of urban beautification projects in 1936. Bureau of Reclamation reports describe tree plantings for erosion control between 1940 and 1953 within the Riverton Irrigation Project in the Wind-Bighorn River watershed. These introductions were followed by rapid natural dispersal northward by water and wind through the Wind/Bighorn system and into the Yellowstone and Missouri rivers in Montana before closure of Boysen and Bighorn dams in 1951 and 1967. Construction equipment and ornamental plantings further transported saltcedar to the Fort Peck Reservoir and the Musselshell River. We conclude that, without control at its advancing fronts, a complete ban of its sale, and removal of existing ornamental and erosion control trees, saltcedar will invade most suitable sites in the Missouri watershed and disperse northwards into western Canada.     

Selection of plant species for rehabilitation of gypsum mine spoil in arid zone

Ten species were selected based on their economic value in order to study and compare their growth, nutrient uptake pattern, AM-fungal infection etc. in both mine spoil and normal cultivated soil in pot culture. In general, per cent root infection and number of viable AM fungal spores in the rhizosphere of the plant species grown in mine spoil were higher compared to those in normal cultivated soil. Mine spoil had supported significantly higher growth ofProsopis juliflora,Salvadora oleoidesandCenchrus ciliariscompared to normal soil. Concentrations of phosphorus, potassium and calcium in plants growing on gypsum mine spoil were higher than observed in normal soil. In general, micronutrient concentrations (namely Cu, Zn and Fe) were lower in all the plant species growing in normal soil.Salvadora oleoides,Colophospermum mopaneandPithecellobium dulcewere identified as calcium-loving plants. All the species tested can be employed for rehabilitation of gypsum mine spoil.     

Are There Differences in the Response of Natural Stand and Plantation Biomass to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation? A Case for Two-needled Pines in Eurasia

A comparative discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of natural stands and plantations, including in terms of their productivity and stability, began from the moment of the first forest plantings and continues to this day. In the context of the progressive replacement of natural forests by plantations due to deforestation, the question of how will change the carbon storage capacity of forest cover when replacing natural forests with artificial ones in a changing climate becomes extremely relevant. This article presents the first attempt to answer this question at the transcontinental level on a special case for two-needled pine trees (subgenus Pinus L.). The research was carried out using the database compiled by the authors on the single-tree biomass structure of forest-forming species of Eurasia, in particular, data of 1880 and 1967 of natural and plantation trees, respectively. Multi-factor regression models are calculated after combining the matrix of initial data on the structure of tree biomass with the mean January temperature and mean annual precipitation, and their adequacy indices allow us to consider them reproducible. It is found that the aboveground and stem biomass of equal-sized and equal-aged natural and plantation trees increases as the January temperature and precipitation rise. This pattern is only partially valid for the branches biomass, and it has a specific character for the foliage one. The biomass of all components of plantation trees is higher than that of natural trees, but the percent of this excess varies among different components and depends on the level of January temperatures, but does not depend at all on the level of annual precipitation. A number of uncertainties that arose during the modeling process, as well as the preliminary nature of the obtained regularities, are noted.     

静钻根植能源桩承载特性模型试验研究

为了研究静钻根植能源桩在热-力耦合作用下的承载特性,采用自行设计模型试验系统,测试模型桩在黏-砂双层地基中的热力响应。试验结果表明:桩体温度沿深度变化并不均匀,对桩周土的温度影响半径为3倍桩径;3次冷热循环后桩顶和桩周土表面均产生累积沉降,在桩顶荷载达到单桩极限承载力的25%时,桩顶累积沉降达到桩径的3.12‰,是桩顶无荷载情况下的1.77倍;模型桩附加温度应力沿深度分布均表现为中间大两端小,位移变化零点(附加温度应力最大处)随着桩顶荷载增大(约束增强)而上移,桩顶荷载较小时降温引起桩身局部产生拉应力。因此,静钻根植能源桩的承载特性与温度变化条件、桩顶荷载大小和桩端约束条件密切相关,在工程设计中需要综合考虑以确保运行安全性。