Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

从江翁浪金矿中的构造变形特征研究

从江翁浪金矿是一个受构造控制明显的金矿床,金矿主要富集在受顺层剪切控制的强变形带内。本文通过对翁浪金矿控矿构造中变形岩石的宏观和微观变形特征分析,得出研究区顺层剪切带的运动学特征为逆冲型剪切,控制金矿产出的强变形带以韧性变形为主的认识。     

Synthesis of soil‐hydraulic properties and infiltration timescales in wildfire‐affected soils

We collected soil‐hydraulic property data from the literature for wildfire‐affected soils, ash, and unburned soils. These data were used to calculate metrics and timescales of hydrologic response related to infiltration and surface runoff generation. Sorptivity (S) and wetting front potential (Ψ_f) were significantly different (lower) in burned soils compared with unburned soils, whereas field‐saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_fs) was not significantly different. The magnitude and duration of the influence of capillarity during infiltration was greatly reduced in burned soils, causing faster ponding times in response to rainfall. Ash had large values of S and K_fs but moderate values of Ψ_f, compared with unburned and burned soils, indicating ash has long ponding times in response to rainfall. The ratio of S²/K_fs was nearly constant (~100 mm) for unburned soils but more variable in burned soils, suggesting that unburned soils have a balance between gravity and capillarity contributions to infiltration that may depend on soil organic matter, whereas in burned soils the gravity contribution to infiltration is greater. Changes in S and K_fs in burned soils act synergistically to reduce infiltration and accelerate and amplify surface runoff generation. Synthesis of these findings identifies three key areas for future research. First, short timescales of capillary influences on infiltration indicate the need for better measurements of infiltration at times less than 1 min to accurately characterize S in burned soils. Second, using parameter values, such as Ψ_f, from unburned areas could produce substantial errors in hydrologic modeling when used without adjustment for wildfire effects, causing parameter compensation and resulting underestimation of K_fs. Third, more thorough measurement campaigns that capture soil‐structural changes, organic matter impacts, quantitative water repellency trends, and soil‐water content along with soil‐hydraulic properties could drive the development of better techniques for numerically simulating infiltration in burned areas.     

碳酸盐岩中有机质组成特征分析

对碳酸盐岩有机质组分进行分类时，有两种分类标准，一是主要采用煤岩学方法，二是采用孢粉学研究方法。本文使用煤岩学方法作为标准，对碳酸盐岩有机质的组成特征进行分析。按有机质来源和有机组分光性和形态等方面差别划分为内源有机质、次生有机质和陆源有机质三类。内源有机质类中分腐泥组和动物有机组，前者主要来源于菌藻类，后者则主要来源于浮游动物有机体；次生有机质中区分出微粒体、有机包裹体、沥青；陆源有机质类分类术语仍沿用煤显微组分分类系统和术语。碳酸盐岩烃源岩的有机质主要为腐泥型，有机质来源以低等藻类为主，且有机质组成特征与碳酸盐岩烃源岩的地质年代有关。碳酸盐岩还存在着差异演化的特征。     

Mesoproterozoic Fraser Complex: Geochemical evidence for multiple subduction‐related sources of lower crustal rocks in the Albany‐Fraser Orogen,Western Australia

The 1300 Ma Fraser Complex in the Albany‐Fraser Orogen of Western Australia is a thrust stack of mainly gabbroic rocks metamorphosed to granulite facies. This package of fault‐bounded units was elevated from a deep crustal level onto the margin of the Yilgarn Craton during continental collision between the Mawson and Yilgarn Cratons. Incompatible trace‐element distributions demand at least three mantle sources. Primitive‐mantle‐normalised incompatible‐element distributions show strong negative Ta–Nb anomalies, typical of subduction‐derived magmas. Three lines of evidence indicate that the mafic magmas did not acquire these anomalies by assimilation of crustal rocks: (i) major‐element compositions do not allow appreciable contamination with felsic material; (ii) Ni contents of many mafic rocks are too high for a significant contribution from a felsic assimilant; and (iii) Sr and Nd isotopic data support a largely juvenile source for the magmas that produced the Fraser Complex. Hence, the Ta–Nb anomalies are interpreted to reflect subduction‐related magmatic sources. On multielement diagrams, depletions in Sr, Eu, P, and Ti can be explained by fractional crystallisation, whereas Th and Rb depletions in many of the Fraser Complex rocks probably reflect losses during granulite‐facies metamorphism. These results suggest that the lower crust in this region at 1300 Ma was dominantly of arc origin, and there is no evidence to support mantle plume components. The Fraser Complex is interpreted as remnants of oceanic arcs that were swept together and tectonically interleaved with the margin of the Mawson Craton just before, or during, collision with the Yilgarn Craton at 1300 Ma.     

山区公路工程建设对地下水渗流的影响

分别就公路路堤、路堑、半挖半填等路基结构和隧道结构对周围岩土体的渗透性、渗流路径、地下水位等方面的影响进行了分析,以对公路工程建设对地下水环境的影响和与水文地质有关的灾害和损害的分析评价有所帮助。     

山东大尹格庄金矿蚀变岩中矿体分布稳定性的动力学控制参量探讨

元素品位分布的相依性指标--赫斯特指数（Hurst指数）是矿体分布稳定性的动力学控制参量,重标极差（R/S）分析是相依性分析的有效方法.利用R/S分析对胶东大尹格庄金矿黄铁绢英岩内不同勘探线金元素品位系列的Hurst指数计算发现,Hurst指数主要介于0.59至0.89之间,均值为0.75,标准差为0.09,均大于随机行走经验Hurst指数的均值与标准差;计算结果说明元素品位分布存在正相关性,但由于受多种因素影响,其空间分布的相依性具有一定波动.元素品位分布的正相依性显示在特定的地质背景内,矿体连续分布或者间断出现,发育相对稳定,其与大尹格庄金矿的地质事实相吻合.     

软岩边坡变形破坏规律及其对城市设施的影响

以抚顺西露天矿大规模倾倒滑移变形体变形规律研究为例,受软弱夹层控制的软岩边坡变形破坏规律及其变形破坏对城市工业设施的影响。     

变形岩体软弱破裂带的处理技术

在研究完成变形岩体软弱破裂带可灌性的基础上,采用旋喷注浆技术进行直接加固处理,提高破裂带的内聚力和内摩擦角,实践证明,抑制了岩体的变表,防止了滑坡的产生。