Marine protected area networks in China: Challenges and prospects

With over 30 years’ experience of managing Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), China has established more than 250 MPAs in its coastal and marine areas, but the overall management effectiveness is unimpressive [46]. Recently, China has made commitments to expand the MPA coverage in its waters ([7,52,53]) and develop an “ecological barrier” along the coast by connecting MPAs and islands by 2020 (The State Council 2015). In this context, this study reviews major challenges in current MPA practices in China, including the lack of systematic and scientific approaches, inadequate laws and regulations, ineffective governance mechanisms, conflicts between conservation and exploitation, limited funding, and inadequate monitoring programs. Four scenarios for developing China's MPA networks are developed and analyzed based on a literature review of experience in the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the European Union and the Philippines, as well as a set of interviews with Chinese MPA experts. These scenarios include: 1) creating a national system with an inventory of MPAs, 2) developing social networks, 3) developing regional ecological networks, and 4) developing a national representative network. The first two scenarios focus on the enhancement of the governance system through connecting individual MPAs as a social, institutional, and learning network, which could provide opportunities for creating an ecologically coherent network, while the latter two emphasized ecological connectivity and representativeness. Given different focuses, they can be applied at different stages of implementation and combinations of scenarios can be used depending on China's needs.     

comparison of locations of rushan earthquake swarm from large and small network

A notable swarm occurred in Rushan, Shandong Peninsula and its activities continue since Oct. 2013 till now. Up to Sept. 30, 2014, more than 7 000 events have been recorded, in which locatable shocks exceed 2000, and 18 events with M_L≥3.0. The swarm is rarely seen in East China for its extraordinary duration time and surprising high frequency of aftershocks. 18 temporary seismometers have been deployed around the swarm since May 6, 2014, and composed a seismic array for monitoring the swarm activities. Based on data from permanent networks and temporary array, we relocated the earthquake sequence by using hypoDD method. It has been shown that, there is obvious difference between permanent network results and temporary array results. The permanent network of Shandong has a relative large coverage gap(more than 200°)for this swarm. Its location results therefore should not be reliable. There are maybe other errors in the permanent network result due to some problems in the raw data, such as too few stations for most locatable events(3 stations), and relative lower proportion of located events in final result(74.3%, while 95.1% in temporary array result). It can be found by comparing location results from permanent network and temporary array that, using temporary array's data can improve the location accuracy significantly. The results of temporary array are: aftershocks distribution of Rushan swarm is in NWW direction, the dip-direction of fitted fault plane is SW, and the strike and dip angle agree with focal mechanism of the mainshock. Focal depths of aftershocks are at 4.5～8km; the swarm is restricted in a small area about 3km×3km×1km, and has some characteristics such as clustering, staged activities, and etc; the aftershock activities are in accord with crack growth behavior pattern, hence we deduced that there may be fluid intrusion in source area. Finally, we discussed the seismogenic structures and active mechanisms of this swarm combined with relative geologic knowledge. We draw some conclusions as follows: 1)Rushan swarm probably occurred at the boundary of rock bodies of Duogu Mountain and Haiyangsuo super-unit; 2)The seismogenic structure is a blind fault, which should be a part of adjacent Heishankuang-Jilincun Fault, or might be a new fault at rock body boundaries; 3)Rushan swarm might be an evidence for the existence of the disputed Shidao Fault.     

南海实现和谐之路

中国最早发现和开发利用南海及其诸岛,南海之名始见于周朝,距今3 000多年,至秦汉时,已开发南海至印度洋的航运和商贸事业。南海诸岛和南海部分海域属于中国领土和海疆,标示在中国出版的地图中为断续国界线。南海周边国家关系历来大多处于和谐状态,其中秦汉南海海上丝绸之路和明朝郑和船队下西洋为其中显著发展的和谐时段。而自中世纪以来,域外强国侵入南海,使南海区域在相当长时间内处于严重不和谐状态。其中,15―19世纪,欧美殖民主义者侵占南海周边各国。20世纪上半叶,日本殖民主义者开始侵占中国南海诸岛,并在第二次世界大战中吞占了整个南海区域;20世纪下半叶,法国和美国相继挑起印度支那战争和越南战争。南海周边部分国家霸占中国南海诸岛许多岛礁,并在其上建筑和扩建机场及港口,扩军备,分割其海疆并掠夺其海洋石油天然气资源。中国必须开展积极的外交和军事活动,尤其是加强国防建设,在南海诸岛建设海空军基地,才能保护中国南海油气和渔业资源的开发和运输畅通,并尽早收回全部岛礁主权,使南海周边国家愿意“共同开发”,创造和谐的南海。     

Seismic reliability assessment of urban water networks

We present a framework for the seismic risk assessment of water supply networks, operating in either normal or abnormal conditions. We propose a methodology for assessing the reliability of water pipe networks combining data of past non‐seismic damage and the vulnerability of the network components against seismic loading. Historical data are obtained using records of damages that occur on a daily basis throughout the network and are processed to produce‘survival curves’, depicting their estimated survival rate over time. The fragility of the network components is assessed using the approach suggested in the American Lifelines Alliance guidelines. The network reliability is assessed using graph theory, whereas the system network reliability is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology proposed is demonstrated both on a simple, small‐scale, network and also on a real‐scale district metered area from the water network of the city of Limassol, Cyprus. The proposed approach allows the estimation of the probability that the network fails to provide the desired level of service and allows the prioritization of retrofit interventions and of capacity‐upgrade actions pertaining to existing water pipe networks. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

宽频带地震台网在滑坡地质灾害监测预报中的应用

在千将坪滑坡前地震动事件分析基础上,总结滑坡前滑坡体内部岩体形变和破裂所产生地震信号的典型特征,并建立宽频带地震台,对金坪子滑坡体和早谷田危岩体进行监测实验,提取基岩类、土质类和危岩体类3种基本物质组成滑坡的微振动前兆信息特征,为地震台网在滑坡监测预报中的应用推广和监测预报系统软件的研制奠定基础.根据测震学原理,研发滑坡监测分析系统软件（Smas）,可为滑坡大规模活动前快速预警.     

土石坝地震永久变形参数反演方法研究

提出了一种基于径向基网络的土石坝永久变形参数反演分析模型。该模型充分利用了径向基神经网络的非线性映射能力,只需要进行少量的样本设计,即可反演坝体永久变形参数,可以解决土石坝动力参数反演计算耗时长的问题。同时在对永久变形参数进行灵敏度分析的基础上,建立考虑参数灵敏度的网络训练目标函数,进一步提高了反演精度。将所建立的模型用于紫平铺面板堆石坝地震永久变形参数反演,采用三维有限元法进行静动力分析,并采用改进的沈珠江模型计算坝体地震永久变形。结果表明,反演参数计算的大坝地震永久变形和坝体实测永久变形数值接近,趋势一致,因而所建立的模型能够有效地反演坝体地震永久变形参数,为土石坝的动力参数反演提供了一种简便、有效的方法。     

山区公路半填半挖路基沉降控制指标与标准研究

为了避免路基沉降导致路面结构破坏,对适用于山区公路半填半挖路基的沉降控制指标和标准进行了研究。首先,基于常泊松比假定,推导了三维Merchant模型的Prony级数表达式,并以ABAQUS为工具建立了半填半挖路基沉降计算模型。计算结果表明,半填半挖路基工后沉降曲线为“勺”形或“S”形,曲线形状的差异揭示了路基沉降的时空耦合效应。其次,基于路基工后沉降机制分析,提出了如下假定：半填半挖路基工后沉降曲线为中心对称的“S”形,对称中心两侧的曲线段为抛物线。通过沥青路面结构对抛物线形路基沉降的力学响应分析,揭示了路面结构附加弯拉应力与抛物线方程的二次项系数a具有线性关系,据此提出采用a值作为半填半挖路基沉降控制指标。最后,基于沥青路面结构在交通荷载和路基沉降共同作用下的破坏模式,提出了半填半挖路基沉降控制标准的确定方法。研究成果为合理控制半填半挖路基工后沉降提供了明确的技术依据。     

金华市街道灰尘磁化率与交通因素的关系

通过对浙江省金华市街道灰尘磁化率测试,从主干道与非主干道磁化率的对比、十字路口与非十字路口磁化率的比较以及磁化率与路网密度相关分析三个方面,定量研究金华市街道灰尘磁化率及其与交通因素的关系。结果表明：灰尘样品磁化率（χlf）变幅为127.57×10^-8~853.91×10^-8 m³ · kg^-1,平均值为322.55×10^-8 m³ · kg^-1,高于本地土壤磁化率;频率磁化率变幅为0.67%~3.99%,平均值为1.61%;磁化率与频率磁化率呈负相关关系;主干道灰尘的磁化率大于非主干道,十字路口灰尘磁化率大于非十字路口;灰尘磁化率和路网密度呈正相关,金华市街道灰尘磁化率可以指示交通污染的分布状况。     

中国道路网络的通达性评价与演化机理

现代交通方式产生之前,传统道路设施及道路运输是主要交通方式,成为各历史时期社会经济联系的主要途径,本文力图探究道路设施网络的长期演化规律。为此,本文以具有国家意义的“国道”为研究对象,以商周以来3500年为时间尺度,设计了道路网发育指标和可达性—最短距离模型;刻画了中国道路网的拓展和演化过程,总结各时期的发展特征、空间格局及模式,揭示演变规律;评价了道路网的结构特征、成熟水平与连通性,分析各时期的可达性格局及演变,识别可达性优势与劣势区域;考察了道路网演变与中国社会—经济系统的关系机制。研究发现,中国道路网遵循了“内陆扩张”模式尤其从内陆向边疆拓展,可达性形成明显的“核心—边缘”中心圈层格局,并同国防建设和国家集权、邮驿系统、贸易运输有紧密关系。     

Free-Swell and Swelling Pressure of Unsaturated Compacted Clays; Experiments and Neural Networks Modeling

Expansive soils have received attentions of several investigators in the past half of century in the problematic soils context. Volume change behavior of unsaturated compacted soils in presence of water and change of degree of saturation was observed in two form of heave or collapse. Low water content and low density compacted soils in presence of enough surcharge pressure lose stability and collapse, because of their metastable and susceptible structure to change of degree of saturation. Free-swell and swelling pressure of five compacted clays, covering low to high plastic clays have been investigated in respect to compaction states and swelling pressure was compared with collapse pressure threshold. The results of experiments were utilized in two Artificial Neural Networks to predict free-swell percent and swelling pressure of a soil sample based on index properties and compaction state.