Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events in the Himalaya

Recession of high‐mountain glaciers in response to climatic change frequently results in the development of moraine‐dammed glacial lakes. Moraine dam failure is often accompanied by the release of large volumes of water and sediment, termed a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Chukhung Glacier is a small (~3 km²) receding valley glacier in Mt. Everest (Sagarmatha) National Park, Nepal. Unlike many Himalayan glaciers, which possess a thick mantle of supraglacial debris, its surface is relatively clean. The glacier terminus has receded 1.3 km from its maximum Holocene position, and in doing so provided the space for an ice‐contact moraine‐dammed lake to develop. The lake had a maximum volume of 5.5 × 10⁵ m³ and drained as a result of breaching of the terminal moraine. An estimated 1.3 × 10⁵ m³ of material was removed from the terminal moraine during breach development. Numerical dam‐breach modelling, implemented within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, was used to investigate a range of moraine‐dam failure scenarios. Reconstructed outflow peak discharges, including failure via overtopping and piping mechanisms, are in the range 146–2200 m³ s^‐1. Results from two‐dimensional hydrodynamic GLOF modelling indicate that maximum local flow depths may have exceeded 9 m, with maximum flow velocities exceeding 20 m s^‐1 within 700 m of the breach. The floodwaters mobilised a significant amount of material, sourced mostly from the expanding breach, forming a 300 m long and 100 m wide debris fan originating at the breach exit. moraine‐dam. These results also suggest that inundation of the entire floodplain may have been achieved within ten minutes of initial breach development, suggesting that debris fan development was rapid. We discuss the key glaciological and geomorphological factors that have determined the evolution of a hazardous moraine‐dammed lake complex and the subsequent generation of a GLOF and its geomorphological impact. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

CASM: a unified state parameter model for clay and sand

The purpose of this paper is to present a simple, unified critical state constitutive model for both clay and sand. The model, called CASM (Clay And Sand Model), is formulated in terms of the state parameter that is defined as the vertical distance between current state (v, p′) and the critical state line in v–ln p′ space. The paper first shows that the standard Cam-clay models (i.e. the original and modified Cam-clay models) can be reformulated in terms of the state parameter. Although the standard Cam-clay models prove to be successful in modelling normally consolidated clays, it is well known that they cannot predict many important features of the behavior of sands and overconsolidated clays. By adopting a general stress ratio-state parameter relation to describe the state boundary surface of soils, it is shown that a simple, unified constitutive model (CASM) can be developed for both clay and sand. It is also demonstrated that the standard Cam-clay yield surfaces can be either recovered or approximated as special cases of the yield locus assumed in CASM. The main feature of the proposed model is that a single set of yield and plastic potential functions has been used to model the behaviour of clay and sand under both drained and undrained loading conditions. In addition, it is shown that the behaviour of overconsolidated clays can also be satisfactorily modelled. Simplicity is a major advantage of the present state parameter model, as only two new material constants need to be introduced when compared with the standard Cam-clay models. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geomechanical modelling to assess fault integrity at the CO2CRC Otway Project,Australia

This paper presents the first published 3D geomechanical modelling study of the CO2CRC Otway Project, located in the state of Victoria, Australia. The results of this work contribute to one of the main objectives of the CO2CRC, which is to demonstrate the feasibility of CO₂ storage in a depleted gas reservoir. With this aim in mind, a one-way coupled flow and geomechanics model is presented, with the capability of predicting changes to the in situ stress field caused by changes in reservoir pressure owing to CO₂ production and injection. A parametric study investigating the pore pressures required to reactivate key, reservoir-bounding faults has been conducted, and the results from the numerical simulation and analytical analysis are compared. The numerical simulation indicates that the critical pore fluid pressure to cause fault reactivation is 1.15 times the original pressure as opposed to 1.5 times for the comparable analytical model. Possible reasons for the differences between the numerical and analytical models can be ascribed to the higher degree of complexity incorporated in the numerical model. Heterogeneity in terms of lateral variations of hydrological and mechanical parameters, effect of topography, presence of faults and interaction between cells are considered to be the main sources for the different estimation of critical pore pressure. The numerical model, which incorporates this greater complexity, is able then to better describe the state of stress that acts in the subsurface compared with a simple 1D analytical model. Moreover, the reactivation pressures depend mainly on the state of stress described; therefore we suggest that numerical models be performed when possible.     

Balancing deformation in NW Borneo: Quantifying plate-scale vs. gravitational tectonics in a delta and deepwater fold-thrust belt system

Recent GPS measurements demonstrate that NW Borneo undergoes 4–6 mm of plate-scale shortening a year, which is not accommodated by plate-scale structures. The only geological structure in NW Borneo described to accommodate on-going shortening is the Baram Delta System located on the outer shelf to basin floor. Delta toe fold-thrust belts are commonly thought to be caused by margin-normal compressional stresses generated by margin-parallel upslope gravitational extension.     

Modelling and mass balance assessments of nutrient retention in a seasonally-flowing estuary (Swan River Estuary,Western Australia)

An integrated mass balance and modelling approach for analysis of estuarine nutrient fluxes is demonstrated in the Swan River Estuary, a microtidal system with strong hydrological dependence on seasonal river inflows. Mass balance components included estimation of gauged and ungauged inputs to the estuary and losses to the ocean (outflow and tidal exchange). Modelling components included estimation of atmospheric (N fixation, denitrification) and sediment–water column nutrient exchanges. Gross and net denitrification derived using two independent methods were significantly correlated (r² = 0.49, p < 0.01) with net rates averaging 40% of gross. Annual nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads from major tributaries were linearly correlated with annual freshwater discharge and were 3-fold higher in wet years than in dry years. Urban drains and groundwater contributed, on average, 26% of N inputs and 19% of P inputs, with higher relative contributions in years of low river discharge. Overall, ungauged inputs accounted for almost 35% of total nitrogen loads. For N, elevated loading in wet years was accompanied by large increases in outflow (7x) and tidal flushing (2x) losses and resulted in overall lower retention efficiency (31%) relative to dry years (70%). For P, tidal flushing losses were similar in wet and dry years, while outflow losses (4-fold higher) were comparable in magnitude to increases in loading. As a result, P retention within the estuary was not substantially affected by inter-annual variation in water and P loading (ca. 50% in all years). Sediment nutrient stores increased in most years (remineralisation efficiency ca. 50%), but sediment nutrient releases were significant and in some circumstances were a net source of nutrients to the water column.     

Long-term numerical evolution of the nitrogen bulk content in the Mediterranean Sea

The behavior of the Mediterranean ecosystem in response to realistic riverine inputs and dissolved matter exchange is investigated. The strategy is to evaluate the stability of the ecosystem subjected to various atmospheric inputs.     

Resolving physically and biologically driven suspended particulate matter dynamics in a tidal basin with a distribution-based model

Understanding suspended particulate matter (SPM) dynamics in coastal waters is crucial to assess changes in coastal sediment budgets and biogeochemical fluxes. SPM dynamics are subject to various physical and biological factors and processes such as, e.g. tidal currents and aggregation which can be enhanced by extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) that are produced by algae and bacteria. It is still unclear how the different factors and processes interact and together determine SPM dynamics. To unravel the interacting processes and factors, we propose a new distribution-based modeling approach. Based on the derivation of explicit equations for size distribution characteristics of SPM such as the average radius, we derived a model of reduced complexity characterized by low initialization and parameterization effort as well as low computational cost. The proposed 0D model includes the processes of aggregation and fragmentation due to shear, aggregation due to differential settling, deposition, resuspension and tidal exchange, and describes the evolution of the SPM concentration in the water column linked by the settling velocity to the change of the mass average radius of the aggregate distribution. A systematic parameter variation for critical bottom shear stress of erosion, the size of resuspended aggregates, the fractal dimension, the collision efficiency, and the aggregate strength has been performed and compared to observations in the back-barrier basin of Spiekeroog Island in the German Wadden Sea. This analysis confirms the hypothesis that in winter biological influences on SPM dynamics are smaller compared to summer. This is mainly reflected by a significant shift in the various parameters. We hence conclude that biological control mechanisms have a much more quantitative relevance for SPM dynamics than currently represented by state-of-the-art SPM transport models.     

Developing a conceptual model of marine farming in New Zealand

Survey and Geographic Information System (GIS) data analysis describes the relative influence of biophysical and human variables on site choices made by marine farmers in New Zealand. Community conflicts have grown in importance in determining farm location and different government planning strategies leave distinct signature patterns. Recent legislation empowers local governments to choose among three strategies for future regional aquaculture development. This paper suggests each strategy could result in different spatial outcomes. Simulation modelling of the type described here can provide a better understanding of farmer responses to management approaches and the range of futures that could result from planning choices made today.     

An economic valuation of the Namibian recreational shore-angling fishery

A roving creel survey of recreational shore-anglers in Namibia was used to determine catch and effort of line-fishing. A stratified sample of 240 anglers was surveyed to determine expenditures. Results showed that, between October 1996 and September 1997, some 8 800 anglers spent around 173 000 days angling and had direct expenditures of N$29.7 million. In all, 93% of angling took place in the West Coast Recreational Area. Some 44% of anglers were foreign visitors who contributed 55% of the expenditures. Value added to gross national income within the shore-angling fishery was N$14 million, equivalent to 3.6% of the value of the whole fisheries sector. The expenditures ultimately amounted (through a multiplier) to a gross national income of N$3 069 per angler, or N$27 million in aggregate. These amounts could be sustainable if policies to reduce fish mortality without affecting angler numbers are implemented.     

Control of Aptian palaeobathymetry on turbidite distribution in the Buchan Graben,Outer Moray Firth,Central North Sea

It is widely recognised that palaeobathymetry is a key control on the distribution of turbidite deposits. Thus, the utilisation of palaeobathymetric surfaces as an input for numerical turbidity current modelling offers a potentially powerful method to predict the distribution of deep marine sands in ancient (subsurface or outcrop) successions. Such an approach has been tested on an Aptian turbidite deposit from the Buchan Graben, UK Central North Sea, where modelled sand distributions could be quality controlled against available well data.