温度变化对夏季降温耗能的影响

该文采用降温度日数作为评估夏季降温耗能的指标 ,分析了我国夏季降温度日分布和长期变化特征。温度与降温耗能相关分析表明 ,两者相关密切 ,相关程度随气温升高而增加 ;降温耗能的 1℃效应量 ,北方大于南方。文章最后 ,利用气温距平与降温度日变率建立了夏季降温耗能评估模型。     

玉米螟越冬死亡率的气象条件及其预报模型研究

根据1994-2004年黑山气象资料和玉米螟越冬期资料,采用通径分析方法,对玉米螟越冬期的气象条件与死亡率的关系进行分析,建立了4月和5月死亡率的预报模型。结果表明：玉米螟受3-5月的气象因子影响较大,死亡率明显高于越冬前的死亡率,建立的模型能够反映玉米螟越冬期气象条件与死亡率的响应关系,可在实际预报业务中作为参考依据。考虑越冬前死亡率的预报拟合率明显高于不考虑越冬前死亡率的模拟结果,说明在对玉米螟进行预报时,只考虑气象因子,不考虑虫源基数是不全面的。     

A Numerical Model for Natural Backfill of Pipeline Trenches Subjected to Unidirectional／Oscillatory Flows

A numerical model for the self-burial of a pipeline trench is developed. Morphological evolutions of a pipeline trench under steady-current or oscillatory-flow conditions are simulated with/without a pipeline inside the trench. The oscillatory flow in this study represents the action of waves. The two-dimensional Reynolds-averaged continuity and Navier-Stokes equations with the standard k-e turbulence closure, as well as the sediment transport equations, are solved with the finite difference method in a eurvilirrear coordinate system. Both bed and suspended loads of sediment transport are included in the morphological model. Because of the lack of experimental data on the backfilling of pipeline trenches, the numericalmodel is firstly verified against three closely-relevant experiments available in literature. A detailed measurement of the channel migration phenomenon under steady currents is employed for the assessment of the integral performance of themodel. The two experimental results from U-tube tests are used to validate the model‘s ability in predicting oscillatory flows. Different time-marching schemes are employed for the morphological computation under unidirectional and oscillatory conditions. It is found that vortex motions within the trench play an important role in the trench development.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.     

汕头市PM2.5的气象要素影响分析及预报研究

利用2014—2017年汕头市PM_2.5的日浓度资料、以及汕头市国家基准气象观测站的同期地面气象资料,重点分析了汕头市PM_2.5浓度的变化特征以及风、混合层厚度、降水等气象条件对PM_2.5浓度的影响,同时探讨了污染物浓度变化的成因。在此基础上,根据汕头市的气候特点,采用BP （Back-Propagation）人工神经网络方法针对汛期和非汛期分别建立了PM_2.5质量浓度预报模型。结果表明：与多数内陆城市不同,汕头市PM_2.5浓度日变化为单峰型,这与汕头地处沿海受海陆风影响有关;PM_2.5浓度日峰值出现在08时左右,除早高峰污染物排放增加的因素外,与早晨时段的低风速环境有关;PM_2.5日均浓度随着风速的增大呈现减小趋势,PM_2.5日均浓度与08时混合层厚度显著相关（相关系数为-0.143）;汕头市非汛期PM_2.5浓度比汛期高,这与汕头市的亚热带季风气候特征有关,汛期各量级降水（暴雨以上除外）对PM_2.5的清除效果无明显差别,而非汛期降水对PM_2.5浓度有明显清除作用;BP人工神经网络模型的预报效果表明,汛期和非汛期的PM_2.5级别命中率TS分别为100%和90.3%,准确指数分别为87.7%和89.9%,总体预报效果良好。不同时期预报模型出现正误差的数量和程度均大于负误差,汛期预报模型在有强降水发生时误差较大,而非汛期预报模型在有冷空气入侵时误差较大。     

河南省汛期气候预测概念模型

在河南省6种雨型的基础上，分析了物理要素海温、季风、西太平洋副高及气候因子和河南省汛期降水的关系，给出了河南省汛期降水的气候预测概念模型。通过逻辑推理，可以具体预测雨型。     

Uncertainty in hydrologic modelling for estimating hydrologic response due to climate change (Santiam River,Oregon)

This paper explores the predicted hydrologic responses associated with the compounded error of cascading global circulation model (GCM) uncertainty through hydrologic model uncertainty due to climate change. A coupled groundwater and surface water flow model (GSFLOW) was used within the differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) uncertainty approach and combined with eight GCMs to investigate uncertainties in hydrologic predictions for three subbasins of varying hydrogeology within the Santiam River basin in Oregon, USA. Predictions of future hydrology in the Santiam River include increases in runoff in the fall and winter months and decreases in runoff for the spring and summer months. One‐year peak flows were predicted to increase whereas 100‐year peak flows were predicted to slightly decrease. The predicted 10‐year 7‐day low flow decreased in two subbasins with little groundwater influences but increased in another subbasin with substantial groundwater influences. Uncertainty in GCMs represented the majority of uncertainty in the analysis, accounting for an average deviation from the median of 66%. The uncertainty associated with use of GSFLOW produced only an 8% increase in the overall uncertainty of predicted responses compared to GCM uncertainty. This analysis demonstrates the value and limitations of cascading uncertainty from GCM use through uncertainty in the hydrologic model, offers insight into the interpretation and use of uncertainty estimates in water resources analysis, and illustrates the need for a fully nonstationary approach with respect to calibrating hydrologic models and transferring parameters across basins and time for climate change analyses. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地球物理学中的电磁场正演与反演

本文在近年来众多的地球物理研究者的研究基础上,总结了当前地电磁模型正反演已有成果,定量分析了各种主要正反演的性能测试,指出不同正反演法的优点、缺点以及应用范围局限,提出了各种方法的发展趋势以及当前计算地球物理领域的核心内容,指出了计算地球物理领域的数值模拟发展方向.     

帕米尔高原东北缘活动构造对塔什库尔干盆地地热控制作用

帕米尔东北缘位于青藏高原西北部,是新构造运动最强烈的地区之一。受控于公格尔拉张断裂作用的塔什库尔干盆地,活动构造强烈,高的大地热流值和丰富的地下水,使其具备地热资源形成的地质构造和水文条件。基于塔什库尔干盆地北部的曲曼地区地质构造、湖相地层年代学调查研究,该地区发育晚更新世的NNE向f_1和f_2正断层以及第四纪沉积物之下存在隐伏的近EW向的断层f_3。这3条断层是塔什库尔干断裂在不同构造演化时期形成的次级断层。结合EH-4电磁成像和钻孔及抽水试验等资料表明NNE向f_1和f_2正断层是地热系统的导水通道,而近EW向f_3断层为导热通道。该地区地热模式是大地热流为热源-地下水深循环逐渐加热-构造控水和控热。     

北祁连加里东造山带从挤压到伸展造山机制的转换

早古生代早期，北祁连造山带发生强烈的挤压变形作用，形成加里东期的俯冲－增生杂岩、高压变质岩，并使造山带岩石圈地壳加厚缩短。志留纪末期，加厚的造山带岩石圈由于垮塌作用及根部的拆沉作用，使造山带从挤压造山机制转换为伸展造山机制，并进入后造山伸展作用阶段，增厚的岩石圈开始减薄，发生不同层次的伸展作用，同时伴随花岗岩及Ａｎ∈变质岩的穹隆以及泥盆纪磨拉石盆地上叠盆地（Ｃ－Ｔ）的形成。石炭纪末，北祁连造山带岩石圈地壳已基本减薄到正常厚度。而现今的北祁连造山带的缩短和抬升则为喜马拉雅期再造山作用的产物