GPS单点测速技术在海浪测量中的应用研究

分析比对了GPS单点测速技术与其他已有测波手段的不同,讨论了基于多普勒频移的GPS测速方法,并分析了各类误差对测速精度的影响。分别利用原始多普勒值和导出多普勒值进行了静态测速试验和动态测速试验,将导出多普勒测速结果与RTK（RealTimeKinematic,实时动态测量系统）位置差分测速进行了比测。结果表明,使用静态数据采用高频导出多普勒值测速的精度可以达到亚厘米级每秒,而采用原始多普勒观测值进行测速因接收机型号的不同,结果差异较大;动态测速试验中,采用导出多普勒测速的方法与RTK位置差分测速的符合精度可达cm／s。     

珠江三角洲城市群震害损失预测初步研究

城市群是经济快速发展的产物。已有的震例表明城市群震害比单个城市的震害更为复杂、严重,对社会的影响更为巨大。阐述了珠江三角洲城市群的发展现状及其地震活动性,分析了城市群的地震灾害特点．并利用现有的震害评估模型及基础数据对珠江三角洲城市群进行震害损失模拟．结果证明城市群震害损失较非城市群更严重．并提出了防御城市群地震灾害的措施、     

Story-by-story estimation of the stiffness parameters of laterally-torsionally coupled buildings using forced or ambient vibration data: I. Formulation and verification

A new parameter estimation algorithm is described for identifying the stiffness properties of torsionally coupled shear buildings from their linear response due to ambient excitations or during low-amplitude forced-vibration tests. The algorithm is based on the time-domain equations of motion, and yields estimates of the stiffness properties using a measure of the equilibrium of forces acting on each floor over a time interval. The banded structure of the stiffness matrix — a property intrinsic to torsion-shear buildings — is exploited to decompose the initial inverse problem into several problems of reduced size. This decomposition allows the identification of lateral and torsional stiffnesses of individual stories, independent of the others. The algorithm utilizes vibration data where input excitation is known/measured, which is typical for forced-vibration tests and earthquakes. If the ambient vibrations of the structure are adequately uncorrelated to the (unknown) external forces that induce such vibrations, then the algorithm can also be modified for output-only system identification. The proposed algorithm is verified — and its various attributes are investigated — using simulation data from the ‘Analytical Phase I’ of the IASC (International Association for Structural Control)-ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) benchmark studies. The companion article is devoted to the algorithm's application to experimental data, using data from the ‘Experimental Phase’ of the same benchmark studies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using regional regression within index flood procedures and an empirical Bayesian estimator

Studies have illustrated the performance of at-site and regional flood quantile estimators. For realistic generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions and short records, a simple index-flood quantile estimator performs better than two-parameter (2P) GEV quantile estimators with probability weighted moment (PWM) estimation using a regional shape parameter and at-site mean and L-coefficient of variation (L-CV), and full three-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimators. However, as regional heterogeneity or record lengths increase, the 2P-estimator quickly dominates. This paper generalizes the index flood procedure by employing regression with physiographic information to refine a normalized T-year flood estimator. A linear empirical Bayes estimator uses the normalized quantile regression estimator to define a prior distribution which is employed with the normalized 2P-quantile estimator. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that this empirical Bayes estimator does essentially as well as or better than the simpler normalized quantile regression estimator at sites with short records, and performs as well as or better than the 2P-estimator at sites with longer records or smaller L-CV.     

基于不同海拔高度的雷达降水估测试验

在国内外雷达定量估测区域降水量一些方法基础上,将降水类型、地理位置和海拔高度同时纳入考虑范畴,在成都CINRAD/SC雷达站(海拔高度596.5 m)200 km范围内选择实验区,并按海拔高度将所选区域分为3区。然后利用2010年7—8月的雷达体扫资料以及同时段、同时次的雨量计数据,采用最优化算法分别在每个区域内修订传统Z-I关系中的"A,b"系数,以得到不同海拔地区的Z-I关系和每小时雨量估测值。研究表明,与直接采用传统的Z-I关系定量测量降水相比,各个区域内,经改善后的Z-I关系准确率提高了20%左右,算法相对简单,适合业务使用。     

中国部分省级城市地震危险度排名评述

《中国国家地理》2008年6期刊载的《中国部分省级城市地震危险度排名》引起社会巨大反响,相应提高了社会公众对于地震风险的警觉。文章提到影响地震危险度的3方面因素（导致灾害的强度因子、承灾体的脆弱性指数和响应能力）比较全面。但是中国部分省级城市地震危险度排名的数据不是来源于已经发表的学术论文,而是一篇硕士学位论文。分析表明：地震危险度和城市近源等效震级无关;脆弱性因子没有考虑抗震能力;响应能力也不包括疏散和救援力量等因素。因此认为《中国部分省级城市地震危险度排名）3C章的文字表述与图件的数据依据之间存在显著差别,中国部分省级城市地震危险度排名缺乏足够的科学性和严谨性。     

Settlement prediction by spatial-temporal random process using Asaoka's method

A methodology was presented for observation-based settlement prediction with consideration of the spatial correlation structure of soil. The spatial correlation is introduced among the settlement model parameters and the settlements at various points are spatially correlated through these geotechnical parameters, which naturally describe the phenomenon. The method is based on Bayesian estimation by considering both prior information, including spatial correlation and observed settlement, to search for the best estimates of the parameters at any arbitrary points on the ground. Within the Bayesian framework, the optimised selection of auto-correlation distance by Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) is also proposed. The application of the proposed approach in consolidation settlement prediction using Asaoka's method is presented in this paper. Several case studies were carried out using simulated settlement data to investigate the performance the proposed approach. It is concluded that the accuracy of the settlement prediction can be improved by taking into account the spatial correlation structure and the proposed approach gives the rational prediction of the settlement at any location at any time with quantified uncertainty.     

非差导航卫星实时/事后精密钟差估计

研究了导航卫星精密钟差的估计算法,实现了基于非差载波相位观测值的实时和事后精密卫星钟差的解算,并与IGS分析中心提供的精密钟差产品进行了比较。结果表明,采用自编软件解算的事后精密卫星钟差与IGS最终精密钟差产品具有较好的一致性,其互差仅为0.05ns左右;实时估计结果与CODE提供的事后钟差产品符合较好,二者差异为0.1ns左右。     

首都圈地区现今断层活动的数学模拟及地震危险性讨论

以首都圈地区现今活动断层上近２０年的位移测量资料为依据，用二维线弹性有限元对该区断层的活动特征进行了拟合，并结合有关资料讨论了该区的地震危险性。结果表明：１９７７－１９８６年间该区主压应力优势方位与华北较一致，约为Ｎ４５°－８０°Ｅ；１９８６－１９９０年其主压应力方向向北偏转，约为Ｎ５°－６０°Ｅ；１９９０年至现在其主压应力又向东偏转，角度大于第一阶段，约为Ｎ８０°－９５°Ｅ。该区的张家口－延庆一带近期有发生中强震的可能；丰镇－阳高－大同地区和凉城－古营盘地区应力较高，也应引起注意。     

抗差估计的初值选择

对L1 范估计的平差值和LS估计的平差值作为抗差估计的初值进行了比较 ,指出在 ρ函数是严凸函数时 ,二者无明显的区别。因为LS估计简单且易于计算 ,因此建议用LS估计的平差值作为抗差估计的初值。