Deterministic vs. probabilistic earthquake hazards and risks

Both probabilistic and deterministic methods have a role in seismic hazard and risk analyses performed for decision-making purposes. These two methods can complement one another to provide additional insights to the seismic hazard or risk problem. One method will have priority over the other, depending on how quantitative are the decisions to be made, depending on the seismic environment, and depending on the scope of the project (single site or a region). In many applications a recursive analysis, where deterministic interpretations are triggered by probabilistic results and vice versa, will give the greatest insight and allow the most informed decisions to be made.     

潜在震源区概念的界定

本文首先论述了地震危险性概率分析方法中潜在震源区的概念及其地位和作用，在此基础上，比较了它与地震危险区的差异，其次，阐述了我国现行地震危险性概率分析方法对潜在震源区概念的发展，最后，讨论了潜在震源区的不确定性问题。     

潮州韩江南北堤地震稳定性评估

韩江南北堤位于广东省韩江三角洲，始建于公元８１９年，已有千年历史。期间多次受洪水和地震袭击，经多次抢险和加高培厚目前已达到抵御５０年一遇洪水的要求。本文采用了几中方法对其抗震能力进行评估，并根据几种方法的评估结果对地震稳定性进行综合评价。     

天山活断层分段在中期地震危险区预测中的应用

为研究今后１￣３年强震危险区，从天山活断层中挑选了５条活动性较强的断裂（带），用地震破裂和地震学标志将断裂分段，在分段基础上研究各段地震迁移、地震时空特征、中强地震动态、危险性概率预测。结合新疆境内６级以上强震震例研究，提出近期危险性判据指标，从中筛选出中期危险地段。     

大同－阳高地震的孕育和强震的“增震作用”

论述了大同－阳高地震的孕育机制，认为可能有３个因素，即区域断层的长期蠕动，中小地震的频繁活动以及外围强震的“增震作用”。研究了利用强震的增、减震作用判定强震危险区的方法，初步取得了较为满意的效果。     

Probabilistic Estimation of Hazard on Engineering Site Based on the Intensity of Historic Earthquakes and A Preliminary Comparison with Seismic Hazard Analysis

This paper introduces a new method to estimate the seismic hazard on engineering site.The method is mainly based on intensity data of historical earthquakes.The obvious feature of the method is to use some ideas of seismic hazard analysis and considering regional seismicity tendency.The authors depict the comprehensive method to estimate the related parameters and predict the seismic hazards for 14 sites as practical examples.Some problems are also discussed.Compared with seismic hazard analysis,this method has certain advantages,such as simpler computation,lower uncertainty and smaller sensitivity factor.Moreover total hazard P(I≥i)of a site can be examined with real historic data.The result given by the method in this paper can be more stable than that given by seismic hazard analysis nowadays.     

祁连山强震构造带分段及其地震危险性评估

祁连山强震构造带由祁连山北缘断裂和海原断裂组成。断裂带主要表现为压扭性左旋滑动，最大滑动速率达９ｍｍ／ａ。沿带有一系列的古地震事件，且有多次历史地震发生。海原８．６级地震就发生在该带上。根据该带的断裂活动习性，按照一定的原则和依据划分成３个一级断层段和１７个二级断层段。建立了古地震、历史大震图像识别和地震重现间隔二元分析的数学模型。在此基础之上对该带作了地震危险性别定，划分出３个Ａ类危险段和４个Ｂ类危险段     

In search of potential earthquake source regions in the Chinese mainland in the light of ambient shear stress field

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预测10年尺度地震危险性的综合模型

本文依据信息量的定量判定方法，从分析地震地质和前兆因子与强震发生的关系出发，对各种因子所能提供的长期或１０年尺度强震危险的信息量作了估计。     

三维有限元数值模拟在宁夏大坝电厂地震安全性评价中的应用

本文综合考虑了宁夏大坝电厂周围２５０ｋｍ范围内的地质、地球物理方面的有关资料，建立了三维有限元模型。利用该模型模拟了该区域的构造应力场，进而对大坝电厂厂址区及附近进行了地震危险性分析。在分析工作中结合安全度的定义提出了危险系数的概念及潜在震源区划分的定量－定性标志。经过分析，作者认为大坝电厂附近构造稳定性较好。