基于Struts和Hibernate的雷电灾害风险评估软件开发

首次利用Struts与Hibernate技术构建了MVC架构的雷电灾害风险评估的Web软件系统,该系统提供友好的人机对话界面。基于J2EE平台的Struts和Hibernate框架整合实现了层间的松散耦合,能极大地提高开发效率,使系统具有更好的可维护性和可扩展性。通过Struts与Hibernate的整合,该系统实现了建筑物与服务设施的雷电灾害风险评估、参数管理、评估记录管理、雷暴日管理、闪电资料管理等功能,比IEC给出的评估软件具有更好的实用性。     

Numerical analysis of block stone displacements in ancient masonry structures: A new method to estimate historic ground motions

An innovative approach is presented, in which the discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) method is used to estimate historic ground motions by back analysis of unique structural failures in archaeological sites. Two archaeological sites in Israel are investigated using this new approach and results are presented in terms of displacement evolution of selected structural elements in the studied masonry structure. The response of the structure is studied up to the point of incipient failure, in a mechanism similar to the one observed in the field. Structural response is found to be very sensitive to dynamic parameters of the loading function such as amplitude and frequency. Prior to back analysis of case studies, two validations are presented. Both compare the performance of DDA with analytical solutions and present strong agreement between the two. Using comprehensive sensitivity analyses, the most likely peak ground acceleration (PGA) and frequency that must have driven the observed block displacements are found for the two case studies—the Nabatean city of Mamshit and the medieval fortress of Nimrod in southern and northern Israel, respectively. It is found that horizontal peak ground accelerations (HPGA) of 0.5g and 1g were required to generate the observed deformations in Mamshit and Nimrod, respectively. Although these might seem too high, considering structural and topographic amplifications it is concluded that the analyses suggest ground motions of 0.2g at a frequency of 1.5 Hz for Mamshit and up to 0.4g at a frequency of 1 Hz for Nimrod. These values provide constraints on the seismic risk associated with these regions as appears in the local building code using a completely independent approach. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The use of historical flood information in the English Midlands to improve risk assessment

Abstract

The Easter 1998 flood was the largest flood event in the gauged record of many basins of the English Midlands. Flood frequency analysis, using such gauged records only, placed the 1998 event at a return period of over 100 years on several basins. However a review of historical (pre-gauged) flooding on some rivers gives a different perspective. Examples are given of the use of historical flood information on the River Leam, the River Wreake at Melton Mowbray, the River Sence (tributary to the River Soar) and the River Frome at Stroud. The cost of acquiring such historical flood data is trivial in comparison to gauged data, but the benefits are demonstrated as significant. In particular, historical flood data provide a better basis for risk assessment and planning on flood plains through revised estimates of flood discharge and depth.     

地质灾害危险性评估在某工程建设中的应用

本文通过对工程建设项目的实例分析，研究其在建设和运营过程中遭受地质灾害的危险性，以及工程建设诱发或加剧地质灾害的可能性，进而提出相宜的地质灾害防治对策，以确保工程建设的质量和安全，减少经济损失，保护环境。     

河北北岔沟门铅锌矿区地球化学特征

通过对河北省隆化县北岔沟门铅锌矿区水系沉积物、岩石、近矿围岩、矿体中元素分布规律的分析,探讨了矿区内元素的相关性、元素组分分带及矿化意义和元素原生分带,阐明该矿区的地球化学特征,基本建立矿体剥蚀程度的评价指标,并对今后在该区进行地质普查提出了地球化学找矿标志。     

确定矿产资源勘查风险系数的方法的方法——改进的费用效益法

通过系统分析影响矿产资源勘查风险的基本因素，对前人确定勘查风险系数的方法-费用效益法、概率统计法进行了全面的评述，认为在实际操作上存在较大的困难，计算结果的准确性并不可靠。从统计地球化学理论出发，考查了矿产资源勘查和开发全过程中技术、经济参数对投资效果的影响，推导出矿产勘查投资利润率的计算公式，并将其与安全利率相比较。达到计算矿产资源勘查风险的目的。     

An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments

This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation.The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed.     

A Comparison of Fluvial Sediment Phosphorus (P) Chemistry in Relation to Location and Potential to Influence Stream P Concentrations

Fluvial sediments are subject to cyclic submersion during changes in stream flow, which can affect their phosphorus (P) sorptive capacity. As fluvial sediments play a major role in determining P concentrations in stream flow, we compared the P chemistry of exposed stream bank and submerged bed sediments from an agricultural catchment in central Pennsylvania, USA. Total P concentration was greater in bank (417 mg kg^-1) than bed sediments (281 mg kg^-1), but because bed sediments contained more sand-sized material, they could release more P and support a higher solution P concentration (0.043 mg l^-1) than bank sediments (0.020 mg l^-1). Phosphorus release was a function of Mehlich-3 soluble Fe in stream sediments (r > 0.65), reflecting redox processes in the fluvial system. In contrast, P sorption maxima of bank and bed sediments were related to Mehlich-3 soluble Al (r > 0.78) and organic matter concentration (r > 0.79). Overall, our research suggested that erosion of bank sediments should contribute less P and may be a sink for P in the stream system compared with resuspension of bed sediment. However, bank sediments may have the potential to be a large source of P in downstream reservoirs or lakes, where increased microbial activity and reducing conditions may solubilise sediment-bound P.     

滑坡危险度区划研究述评

滑坡危险度区划是滑坡研究发展到一定深度所提出的新课题。到目前为止，我国既无统一的滑坡危险度评价理论体系，也无统一的滑坡危险度区划制图方法。因此，该项工作异常薄弱，这是造成预防不及时，措施不力，从而导致广泛、严重滑坡灾害的原因之一。滑坡危险度区划的主要目的是：①建立标准化评价体系；②滑坡信息库；③评价区域滑坡的危险性；④提供标准化危险度区划图件；⑤减灾防灾的决策依据。文章对此问题的研究动态评述基础上。提出了危险度区划的内涵和研究目标。