从中东某区块勘探项目的运作谈海外石油风险勘探值得注意的几个问题

自上个世纪90年代以来,我国经济的高速发展引发了石油消费的快速增长,石油对外依存度逐年提高。为确保国家石油安全,中国三大石油公司作为国家“走出去”战略的实践者,大力开拓海外石油市场,取得了初步的成效。本文从中东地区某资源国一个石油风险勘探项目入手,通过分析中国石油公司在该资源国实施石油风险勘探项目过程中遇到的问题和困难,然后以点带面,重点从国家层面上有针对性地提出了解决问题的建议,以推动和保证海外风险勘探事业的持续和良性发展。     

洪水风险图管理与应用系统的设计与实现

洪水风险图是洪水管理的重要技术支撑,当洪水风险图的编制成果积累到一定程度时,面临着如何有效管理和共享应用的问题。文章在分析洪水风险图的数据特点以及在管理和应用上的功能与性能需求的基础上,采用面向服务思想的地理信息共享技术,设计了洪水风险图的管理与应用系统。该系统为洪水风险图空间数据和专题数据的有效管理和应用提供了信息交流和共享的平台,有利于洪水风险图编制和应用的推广。     

The Wild Life of Pesticides: urban agriculture,institutional responsibility,and the future of biodiversity in Sydney's Hawkesbury-Nepean River

Agricultural chemicals are a notoriously intractable source of environmental pollution. Offering enhanced agricultural productivity, they simultaneously risk degrading the ecological basis upon which agriculture depends. This paper considers chemicalisation as a cause of the erosion of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem resilience, focusing on the Hawkesbury-Nepean River and the small-scale horticulturalists who supply the city's fresh vegetable markets, working under the pressure of urbanisation, retail monopolies, indifferent land-use planning, and often without access to information about pesticide use in the languages they understand. Arguing that standard practices of ‘risk management’ are unable to adequately control chemical contamination, the paper presents findings from interviews with actors within the ‘assemblage’ of institutions with responsibility for agriculture, water quality, and environmental protection, in order to assess the effectiveness of pesticide governance in the Greater Sydney Basin. It appears that pesticide pollution is far from being tamed: it is rarely measured nor monitored, neither is it a priority of any particular agency. Arguing that public health, the long-term viability of local farming and the ecological well-being of the Hawkesbury-Nepean River are mutually consistent goals, we conclude that these vital elements of the common-weal are currently subject to a system of ‘organised irresponsibility’. The paper concludes by proposing several ways forward.     

Power in waste: Conflicting agendas in planning for integrated solid waste management in Addis Ababa,Ethiopia

The lower end of the labour service market is often described as a fragmented and insecure section of the economy. The article extends previous research by determining whether labour market insecurity increases perceived threats to the security and affordability of housing. The research draws upon the results of a survey conducted in Oslo of workers in low-paid service occupations. The analyses confirm distinct associations between labour market insecurity and self-reported housing risk. The results further show that perceived insecurity is heightened among three groups, namely non-Westerners, people on low incomes, and housing tenants. When the findings are considered as a whole, a picture emerges of risk cutting into the fringes of the political–economic system.     

中国“土地生态安全”与“土地生态风险”研究比较

运用文献分析法,从概念、评价方法和研究内容等3方面对中国土地生态安全和土地生态风险研究进行了比较。研究发现：（1）土地生态安全和土地生态风险的概念既有联系又有区别,两者的联系在于对土地生态问题的关注,研究的根本目的也是统一的;土地生态安全注重土地生态系统的健康状况,而生态系统风险把土地利用活动看作土地生态系统遭受威胁的风险源,关注出现安全问题的可能性及其后果;（2）对于土地生态风险评价和土地生态风险评价,两者的区别关键在于指标体系的选择,而不是数学模型的应用。（3）在研究内容上,目前侧重于土地生态安全和土地生态风险的评价研究,且多重复性工作,对评价结果的应用研究较少。建议加强土地生态安全和土地生态风险的机理和应用研究。     

Climate change or nuclear power—No thanks! A quantitative study of public perceptions and risk framing in Britain

The UK is witnessing a new line in political debate around new nuclear energy generation as one potential feature of future energy policy, specifically for contributing to climate change mitigation alongside energy security. Little is known about how ordinary citizens might be responding to this reframing. This paper reports the results from a major British survey (n=1491) undertaken in the autumn of 2005. The consistent message is that while higher proportions of the British public are prepared to accept nuclear power if they believe it contributes to climate change mitigation, this is a highly conditional view, with very few actively preferring this over renewable sources given the choice. People see both climate change and nuclear power as problematic in terms of risks and express only a ‘reluctant acceptance’ of nuclear power as a ‘solution’ to climate change. The combined data from this survey can also be interpreted as an indication of the complexity surrounding beliefs about energy futures and the difficulty of undertaking simplistic risk–risk tradeoffs within any single framing of the issues; such as nuclear energy versus climate change. The results also indicate that it would be unwise, in the UK as elsewhere, to simplistically assume that there exists any single or stable public ‘opinion’ on such complex matters. We conclude with a discussion of the role and implications of the survey evidence for the policy process.     

索赔计数相依风险模型

考虑了一类索赔计数相依的风险模型,该模型假设每次主索赔可随机产生一副索赔,得到了该风险模型生存概率所满足的微积分方程,并在索赔额为指数分布的情形下,给出了生存概率的精确表达式.     

我国渔港沉积物的重金属污染及潜在生态风险评价

分析了青岛、宁波、舟山、厦门、深圳、珠海、澳门、茂名和三亚共9个渔港（包括综合港口区）表层沉积物中的Cd、Cu、Pb、Zn、Co和Ni等典型重金属元素的含量,探讨了其可能的来源。采用沉积物质量基准法和Hakanson潜在生态风险指数法,评价了各渔港重金属的污染状况和潜在生态风险。结果表明：（1）渔港沉积物中重金属Cu、Zn、Pb和Cd的富集较为严重,位于珠江三角洲的渔港重金属含量显著高于其他渔港,尤其是Cu和Zn,最高含量分别达到1249mg／kg和664mg／kg,而Cd和Pb的污染也不容忽视;（2）珠三角渔港具“高”或“中等”潜在重金属生态风险,其中Cu和Cd具有高的潜在生态风险,其他渔港均属低生态风险,渔港总的潜在生态风险由高至低顺序为：澳门〉深圳〉珠海〉茂名〉三亚〉厦门〉青岛〉宁波〉舟山;（3）渔港沉积物中重金属主要来自工业废水、生活污水、污灌土壤以及大气沉降的污染和渔船防护漆的使用。而船体防护漆中Cu／氧化亚铜的大量使用是渔港中Cu污染的主要来源。     

地应力测量在煤与瓦斯突出灾害研究中的应用

为减轻和防治煤与瓦斯突出灾害,对红菱煤矿进行了地应力测量、岩石力学参数测试和瓦斯气体压力量测,以及地质构造分析。在此基础上,应用突出破坏判断准则,提出了煤层稳定性评价的定量指标,从区域上预测了煤与瓦斯突出的潜在危险区,与现场实际情况吻合较好。提出了区域性与局部相结合的防突措施,取得了良好效果,表明区域煤与瓦斯突出潜在危险区预测对区域性防突措施的选择具有一定指导意义。     

藏木水电站某标段边坡预应力锚固工程风险评价模型

藏木水电站某标段边坡预应力锚固工程施工中面临众多的风险,且存在多种不确定因素,项目管理难度大。构建了项目风险评价指标体系,使用三标度法和层次分析法对指标进行权重分析,引入了模糊综合评判模型,将管理者和专家的经验由定性转为定量,对项目风险进行了定量化评价,评价结论为＂风险较大＂,为进一步制定项目管理方案提供了依据。