Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

Predicting ground-motion variations at the Turkey-flat test site,California

Results of a single group participating in an international experiment are analyzed. The experiment served to verify computational predictions of the ground-motion variations due to near-surface geological effects at a site established for that purpose by the California Department of Conservation. Based on an acceleration record at a rock location, and geotechnical model of medium, records at the other locations of a nearby sedimentary deposit were predicted. A 2-D finite-difference sensitivity analysis suggested that the lateral wave-propagation effects are negligibly small, and locally 1-D computations are sufficient for the present site. Those computations are compared with observations not available to the authors during the blind prediction. Peak accelerations, peak velocities and RMS accelerations were predicted with errors less than 159%, 114% and 62%, respectively. Maxima of the response spectra were fitted within a factor of 2. The predicted and observed Husid's plots (i.e., the normalized cumulative plots of the acceleration squared) have the correlation coefficients 0.98. The detected misfits do not show any simple relation to the instrument location, component, frequency, or time.     

RETRACTION: Numerical simulation of a wind-sand flow under different conditions of atmospheric stability

A theoretical model for wind‐sand flow is developed by considering the coupling between wind flow and sand particle motion, the latter subject to the Magnus effect, under different atmospheric stability conditions. Using this model, the characteristics of the wind‐sand flow are discussed in detail. The results show that the atmospheric stability and the Magnus effect both have a strong influence on wind profiles and on the trajectories of sand particles. This approach produces results with characteristics that differ from those previously reported; the latter only applying to atmospheric conditions of neutral stability. The saltating sand reaches a greater height under non‐neutral stability than under neutral stability, while the maximum horizontal distance is greater under unstable conditions and is smaller under stable conditions than under conditions of neutral stability.     

Numerical modeling for analyzing thermal surface anomalies induced by underground coal fires

Coal seams burning underneath the surface are recognized all over the world and have drawn increasing public attention in the past years. Frequently, such fires are analyzed by detecting anomalies like increased exhaust gas concentrations and soil temperatures at the surface. A proper analysis presumes the understanding of involved processes, which determine the spatial distribution and dynamic behavior of the anomalies.In this paper, we explain the relevance of mechanical and energy transport processes with respect to the occurrence of temperature anomalies at the surface. Two approaches are presented, aiming to obtain insight into the underground coal fire situation: In-situ temperature mapping and numerical simulation. In 2000 to 2005, annual temperature mapping in the Wuda (Inner Mongolia, PR China) coal fire area showed that most thermal anomalies on the surface are closely related to fractures, where hot exhaust gases from the coal fire are released. Those fractures develop due to rock mechanical failure after volume reduction in the seams. The measured signals at the surface are therefore strongly affected by mechanical processes.More insight into causes and effects of involved energy transport processes is obtained by numerical simulation of the dynamic behavior of coal fires. Simulations show the inter-relation between release and transport of thermal energy in and around underground coal fires. Our simulation results show a time delay between the coal fire propagation and the observed appearance of the surface temperature signal. Additionally, the overall energy flux away from the burning coal seam into the surrounding bedrock is about 30-times higher than the flux through the surface. This is of particular importance for an estimation of the energy released based on surface temperature measurements. Finally, the simulation results also prove that a fire propagation rate estimated from the interpretation of surface anomalies can differ from the actual rate in the seam.     

Delineation of groundwater protection zones by the backward particle tracking method: theoretical background and GIS-based stochastic analysis

The backward particle tracking method, an effective and powerful tool that can be used to delineate groundwater protection zones, is presented. The theoretical background and insights on the applicability of this method are provided. Moreover, the present work enriches the backward particle tracking method with an uncertainty analysis concerning the porosity values, applying a Monte Carlo (MC) approach, coupled with the use of geographical information systems (GIS). As an application example, a wellfield in the Komotini area, Greece, is investigated. The present study may serve as a potential guideline for wellfield delineation, particularly in areas like Greece where lack of data related to the hydrogeological system is often a problem.     

On CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> fluid flow and heat transfer behavior in the subsurface,following leakage from a geologic storage reservoir

Geologic storage of CO₂ is expected to produce plumes of large areal extent, and some leakage may occur along fractures, fault zones, or improperly plugged pre-existing wellbores. A review of physical and chemical processes accompanying leakage suggests a potential for self-enhancement. The numerical simulations presented here confirm this expectation, but reveal self-limiting features as well. It seems unlikely that CO₂ leakage could trigger a high-energy run-away discharge, a so-called “pneumatic eruption,” but present understanding is insufficient to rule out this possibility. The most promising avenue for increasing understanding of CO₂ leakage behavior is the study of natural analogues.     

An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

Ground motion estimation during the Kashmir earthquake of 8th October 2005

In this article, analytical methods have been used to estimate ground motion during the 8 October 2005, Kashmir earthquake. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at several stations in the epicentral region have been estimated by empirical analytical source mechanism models. As an alternate analysis, PGA estimates have also been obtained using the stochastic finite fault seismological model. The estimated PGAs are compared with that obtained from damage values. A PGA contour map in the near-source region is provided. It is found that very near to the epicenter, PGA would have reached more than 1 g. It is demonstrated that empirical analytical models can be effectively used to estimate ground motion due to rupture of active faults.     

陆面过程中稳定水同位素逐日变化的数学模拟——引入稳定同位素效应的CLM实例分析

将稳定同位素效应引入CLM(Community Land Model),并对巴西马瑙斯站在平衡年的稳定水同位素的逐日变化进行模拟和分析.结果表明: 降水、水汽和地表径流中δ18O存在明显的季节变化,并与相应的水量存在显著的负相关关系,但凝结物中δ18O与地面凝结量存在显著的正相关关系,蒸发水汽中δ18O与蒸发量之间无显著的相关关系.受土壤贮水削峰功能的影响,表层土壤和根区水中δ18O的季节变化全无.植被层蒸发水汽中稳定同位素的丰度与大气的干湿程度存在密切联系: 当降水量少时,大气干燥,植被层的蒸发较少,植被蒸发中δ18O较高;当降水量较大时,空气湿润,植被层的蒸发量较大,蒸发中δ18O则较低.植被蒸腾中δ18O的变化与源区水体中δ18O的变化保持一致,尤其是与根区水中的δ18O.由于地下径流直接源自根区水的补充,因此,地下径流中δ18O等于根区水中的δ18O.模拟结果还显示,降水MWL (大气水线)的梯度项和常数项均比全球平均MWL略偏小.尽管主要来自降水的贡献,但地表径流和植被层水体的MWLs与降水MWL存在较大的差异,这一方面与两类水体在蒸发过程中的稳定同位素的富集作用有关,另一方面与CLM模拟的水量有关.大气水汽线与降水的MWL的梯度值相近,说明大气水汽与降水近似处于稳定同位素平衡状态.另外,模拟的地面的凝结线与植被层的凝结线均与全球大气水线相近,且具有非常高相关程度,说明CLM的模拟是合理的.     

Nonlinear Analysis of Local Site Effects on Seismic Ground Response in the Bam Earthquake

The influence of local geologic and soil conditions on the intensity of ground shaking is addressed in this study. The amplification of the ground motion due to local site effects resulted in severe damage to dwellings in the Bam area during the 2003 Bam Earthquake. A unique set of strong motion acceleration recordings was obtained at the Bam accelerograph station. Although the highest peak ground acceleration recorded was the vertical component (nearly 1 g), the longitudinal component (fault-parallel motion) clearly had the largest maximum velocity as well as maximum ground displacement. Subsurface geotechnical and geophysical (down-hole) data in two different sites have been obtained and used to estimate the local site condition on earthquake ground motion in the area. The ground response analyses have been conducted considering the nonlinear behavior of the soil deposits using both equivalent linear and nonlinear approaches. The fully nonlinear method embodied in FLAC was used to evaluate the nonlinear soil properties on earthquake wave propagation through the soil layer, and compare with the response from the equivalent linear approach. It is shown that thick alluvium deposits amplified the ground motion and resulted in significant damage in residential buildings in the earthquake stricken region. The comparison of results indicated similar response spectra of the motions for both equivalent and nonlinear analyses, showing peaks in the period range of 0.3–1.5 s. However, the amplification levels of nonlinear analysis were less than the equivalent linear method especially in long periods. The observed response spectra are shown to be above the NEHRP building code design requirements, especially at high frequencies.