达州市气候变化的特征分析

基于达县测站1961-2007年的地面常规观测资料,主要采用小波分析,结合趋势分析、功率谱分析等方法分析了达州市47年来近地表气温、降水随时间的变化特征.结果表明,达州市近50年来冬季(年平均)地表气温变暖幅度约为0.9℃(0.4℃),增温速率接近0.18℃/10a(0.08℃/10a),低于全球的升温幅度.利用小波分析方法研究冬季气温的周期性发现,达州市的冬季气温存在着明显的8年和50年以上的特征时间尺度和周期性振荡.通过对降水的趋势分析发现,夏季降水的增加幅度比年均显著.小波分析方法结果显示达州市的夏季降水同样存在50年以上的特征时间尺度,但在小尺度上20世纪70年代末前后存在不同的变化特征.     

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基于电力线载波通信技术的油田井下设备通信系统

传统的油田井下设备通信系统难以满足油田井下工况恶劣、电磁干扰强、通信距离长等特殊使用环境要求,通信不可靠.基于新型通信技术——电力线载波通信技术,建立油田井下设备电力线模型并分析特性,选择合适载波频率确定通信系统的硬件设计方案,利用软硬件结合方式进行抗干扰设计,研制一种基于电力线载波通信的井下设备通信系统.实验结果表明:该系统通信距离达到3km,准确率为100%,可以满足油田井下及其他恶劣工况环境下设备使用要求,具有一定的应用前景.     

基于GIS的零售商业网点选址评价模型研究

传统零售商业网点选址模型主要是基于统计的静态模型。分析了影响零售商业网点选址的人口、经济、市场竞争三个关键要素,结合GIS,提出了一种基于权重设置的零售商业网点选址评价模型,并阐述了模型的应用流程。该模型在深圳市罗湖区公共信息服务平台中进行了典型应用实现,并检验了模型的应用可行性。     

河南省大中型火电厂地下水资源开发利用及前景展望

该文通过回顾近十几年来河南省大中型火电厂地下水资源勘查概况,分析水源地运行情况,指出可持续开发与利用的条件,扩大开采量的可能性,及可以采取的相应措施。     

怒江六库水电站建设移民搬迁地的GIS分析选择

云南水能资源丰富,是我国重要的水电基地,水电开发具有综合效益好、比较成本低的显著特点,可极大地拉动当地的经济社会发展。电站建设涉及面广,需要解决的问题多,移民就是其中历来困扰水电开发建设的难题之一,移民搬迁贯穿于电站建设全过程,是水电开发不可分割的重要组成部分。随着社会的进步,以人为本观念的渗透,科学、有效地为水电开发移民选择理想的安置地,让移民真正从水电开发中受益已显得越来越重要。本文以拟建的怒江流域梯级电站中的六库电站为例,探讨采用GIS的空间叠置分析、缓冲区分析、网络分析等空间分析技术为移民寻找适宜居住的最佳搬迁地。安置区的选择,我们主要考虑以下因素:(1)靠近集镇或主要交通线,便于各类配套实施的建设及对外交往;(2)充裕的适宜开发的土地资源和水源条件;(3)坡度小于25度的区域;(4)安置区最好在本县,与所在区域居民语言相通,传统习俗相近便于沟通交流,有认同感;(5)安置区选择与自然保护区、国家重点建设规划用地不冲突。     

中国太阳能热发电站选址模型研究

太阳能热发电技术在我国新世纪能源战略中具有重要地位,太阳能热发电电站位置的合理选择对发电成本有直接影响,涉及到太阳能热发电技术本身、高时空分辨率的太阳能法直辐射分布、土地利用分布、水资源分布、社会经济分布,以及政策税收等众多因素。本文提出了一个太阳能热发电站选址的决策支持系统框架,就其中的太阳能直法辐射调查进行了初步试验。本文依据供需时空平衡原则进一步讨论了多种绿色能源互补的大能源系统运筹问题。     

OC4漂浮式风电平台的水弹性响应及波浪载荷研究

漂浮式风电平台在波浪中的摇晃运动会导致塔架根部产生很大的弯矩,极大地威胁平台结构安全。同时流体的附连水质量效应对平台塔架结构的动响应有着较为显著的影响,因此充分考虑这种流固耦合效应有利于更加准确地评估平台塔架的结构动响应。采用三维频域线性水弹性方法计算塔架在流体作用下的结构共振频率特征以及各阶模态振动的主坐标响应特性,然后通过弹性模态叠加法获得塔架的弯矩载荷。并结合概率学手段,预报了短期极限海况下塔架弯曲载荷响应,为新一代漂浮式风电平台结构安全性评估和方案设计提供了技术支撑。     

Uncertainty,entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics. 1. Marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and state scaling / Incertitude,entropie, effet d'échelle et propriétés stochastiques hydrologiques. 1. Propriétés distributionnelles marginales des processus hydrologiques et échelle d'état

Abstract

The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation (CV) and lag one autocorrelation. In this first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological variables and the state scaling behaviour are investigated. Application of the ME principle under these very simple conditions results in the truncated normal distribution for small values of CV and in a nonexponential type (Pareto) distribution for high values of CV. In addition, the normal and the exponential distributions appear as limiting cases of these two distributions. Testing of these theoretical results with numerous hydrological data sets on several scales validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes. Both theoretical and empirical results show that the state scaling is only an approximation for the high return periods, which is merely valid when processes have high variation on small time scales. In other cases the normal distributional behaviour, which does not have state scaling properties, is a more appropriate approximation. Interestingly however, as discussed in the second part of the study, the normal distribution combined with positive autocorrelation of a process, results in time scaling behaviour due to the ME principle.     

The influence of medium-range transport on O3 levels at a rural site in Israel

Simultaneous ozone measurements were made at a rural site, 25 km SSW of the city of Jerusalem, and in the center of the city during a period of 28 months. The ozone data were supplemented by SO₂, NO/NO _x ,and meteorological measurements at both sites. Elevated ozone concentrations were recorded at the rural site, mostly during the spring months (May and June) during which the monthly averages and the monthly averages of the daily 30 min maximum levels equalled those measured in the city. During the summer months, both average and peak levels were lower at the rural site by 20 and 35 ppb. The increased ozone levels at the rural site were accompanied by a parallel increase of SO₂ and NO _x ,suggesting hat the excess ozone at the rural site is a result of a transformation during transport of air pollutants from coastal sources.