中国区域水资源系统韧性与效率的发展协调关系评价

在界定水资源系统韧性概念的基础上,综合应用赋权法、SBM-DEA模型及发展协调度模型对2000—2016年全国31个省区的区域水资源系统的效率、韧性以及两者之间的发展协调关系进行评价。结果如下:①中国区域水资源系统效率整体上处于非有效区,在研究期间呈现出在波动中上升的趋势。②中国区域水资源系统韧性的平均值为0.39,总体水平较低,研究期间整体上呈波动上升趋势。③中国区域水资源系统效率与韧性的发展度总体呈现平稳上升—较快上升—急剧下降—上升的趋势,呈倒"U"型发展;协调度在研究期间呈现波动中上升趋势,大部分省区的发展度较好,而协调度较弱。④2000—2016年,水资源效率与韧性的发展协调度一直维持着"东-中-西"阶梯式递减格局,失调省区的数量降低,初级协调、中级协调、良好协调省区的数量逐渐提升,整体向协调趋势发展;空间格局上呈现由2000年倒"E"型对称式分布格局向如今北部围绕天津、中部围绕上海、南部围绕广东的三级格局演变,格局分布与中国三大经济区基本吻合,可知中国水资源系统效率与韧性的发展协调水平与经济发展水平之间有明显的关系。     

Perceptions of Climate Change and Adaptation Responses in a Local Community: the Barwon Estuary Complex,Victoria

The climate change focus in Australia has shifted from mitigation to adaptation with an emphasis on place-specific case studies. The Barwon Estuary Complex (BEC) on the Bellarine Peninsula, central Victoria, was the focus of this place-specific study in which 37 local stakeholders were consulted through a series of semi-structured interviews on the impacts of climate change on their coastal community. Overall there was uniformity in stakeholder perceptions of the climate change impacts and vulnerabilities pertaining to the BEC. In contrast, discussion on adaptation drew a diversity of responses. While 53 per cent of stakeholders indicated a need to limit the use of hard structures, and rather plan around a changing estuarine environment, opinion amongst the community group was divided. Some believed ‘retreat is the only option’ whilst others felt ‘there won't be much leaving’. The present level of confusion around adaptation highlights the imperative of commencing discussions now to allow sufficient time to develop strategies which are both environmentally and socially responsible. This is important as ultimately it will be the community that will determine whether adaptation strategies are adopted or met with resistance.     

风险扰动下的城市经济韧性多维测度与分析——以长三角地区为例

随着城市间经济联系日益密切,风险扰动对城市的经济韧性发展有着较大的冲击影响,深入研究城市经济韧性对于城市经济良性发展和提升经济抵御能力具有重要意义。论文选取亚洲金融危机和全球金融危机两次典型的经济风险扰动,以长三角城市为研究对象,以产业相对多样化、产业相对专业化、区域经济联系强度和地区经济敏感度的多维综合评价法对长三角城市经济韧性进行了测度,并对其时空格局的演化、特征及成因进行了分析,结果表明：① 长三角地区内大部分城市的产业相对多样化指数呈不断下滑趋势,相对专业化整体态势稳定上升,有利于区域产业分工和一体化发展,应对风险扰动的经济韧性能力强,而安徽省内部分城市专业化指数过高且存在产业同构化现象;② 城市产业相对专业化指数区域差距不断增加,与其主导产业结构有显著关系;③ 核心城市与各城市间的联系总量占比逐年降低,核心城市上海的集聚能力仍较高,致使城市间差距增加,不利于城市经济韧性的整体协同;④ 城市抵抗力和恢复力与其经济发展模式密切相关,经济风险扰动对不同城市的经济增长,存在由沿海城市向内部城市的地域先后性影响。论文有助于弥补已有研究在城市群地区尺度经济韧性研究方面的不足,以期为中国城市经济可持续和区域高质量协同发展提供方法指导。     

千岛湖社会—生态系统恢复力测度与影响机理

立足反映恢复力属性特征的盆地模型理论,构建基于稳定性景观的恢复力评价体系。从脆弱性、应对能力两大层面以及社会、经济、生态三大子系统入手,建立旅游地社会—生态系统恢复力测度指标体系,运用集对分析法,测度千岛湖旅游地社会—生态系统恢复力,甄别影响恢复力的主要因子,揭示旅游地社会—生态系统恢复力因子影响机理及曲线规律。结果表明:1 1987-2012年间千岛湖旅游地社会—生态系统脆弱性指数由0.4576缓慢上升至0.5622,应对能力指数由0.0282快速上升至0.9725,恢复力指数由0.1276稳步上升至0.8669,恢复力应是脆弱性与应对能力相互作用的结果。2总脆弱性受生态子系统脆弱性影响最大,总应对能力受经济子系统应对能力影响最大,总恢复力受社会和经济子系统恢复力影响较大。总应对能力对恢复力起着决定性作用,其中社会和经济系统的应对能力作用更加突出。3恢复力因子影响曲线可分为线性递增和递减、非线性U型/倒U型递增和递减6种类型,不同阶段、不同因子对系统恢复力作用方式、性质、速率具有差异性,主要以非线性影响为主,且存在不确定性。     

基于层次分析法的黄河上游水源涵养区生态系统恢复力评价——以甘南州、临夏州为例北大核心CSCD

在全球气候变化背景下,人类活动对生态环境质量影响的定量评价是区域生态保护与高质量发展的关键问题。本文基于层次分析法(AHP)和GIS可视化空间分析技术,应用遥感反演的生态系统分类资料和社会经济统计资料等,构建了包含社会经济、土地压力、自然条件3个准则层的生态系统恢复力评价指标体系,结合指标时空尺度无量纲化与综合指数法,进行了甘肃省甘南州、临夏州2000—2020年的生态系统恢复力定量评估。结果表明:研究区域空间尺度生态恢复力范围分别为0.14—0.65(2000年)、0.12—0.72(2005年)、0.07—0.70(2010年)、0.12—0.70(2015年)、0.28—0.82(2020年);甘南生态系统恢复力较高,临夏生态系统恢复力较低,在空间分布上,生态系统恢复力呈现北低南高的总体特征,高生态恢复力的乡镇以草地、森林、灌木生态系统为主,低生态恢复力的乡镇以农田、城镇生态系统为主;在时序变化特征中,生态系统恢复力总体向好,呈现先上升、后下降、最后上升趋势,受人类活动与气候变化共同作用。     

Ecosystem health assessment based on analysis of a land use database

Data resources and assessment frameworks are two keys to ecosystem health assessment (EHA). Application of the land use database together with the Pressure–State–Response (PSR) model in EHA provides better precision relative to traditional data resources and assessment frameworks for EHA at the county scale. The raw data are taken from The Anlu County Annals, The Soil Records of Anlu County, and The Statistical Yearbook of National Economy in Anlu County. The spatial and attribute data are partly extracted from the database of current land use in Anlu City using the MAPGIS platform. Based on the results from principal component analysis (PCA), a total of eleven indicators were selected to build an indicator system designed to assess the ecosystem health at the county scale. According to the PSR model, the scores from three indices (press index, state index, and response index) and a comprehensive assessment index (CAI) were calculated, and an assessment map was constructed. The results from the index scores and spatial analysis display a large range for the state of ecosystem health due to the evolution of natural ecosystems and human activities at the county scale. The precision of the current land use database (scale of 1:10,000) makes it a better candidate for evaluating ecosystem health than the traditional data resources. This study also demonstrates the numerous benefits of combining land use databases with GIS functions to assess ecosystem health at the county scale.     

Derivation of a resilient polygon centroid for natural resource management applications

This paper reviews the utility of polygon centroid algorithms for natural resource management applications. Following a review of ‘standard’ centroid derivation algorithms, and their limitations, alternative approaches are proposed. Building upon current polygon-reduction algorithms an iterative edge-erosion model is presented. Resilient centroids derived via this model are shown to: (1) maximise the distance to all internal and external edges; (2) be located within the polygon boundary; and (3) be insensitive to patch vertex outliers.

The resilient centroid is demonstrated to have utility in a range of natural resource management applications including the matching of disparate data sources. Exemplar studies conclude that resilient centroids support an appropriate allocation of vegetation condition point samples both within and between native vegetation patches. Further, the utilisation of resilient centroids enables the (1) sub-division of vegetation patches into homogenous regions (core areas) and (2) interrogation of the relationship between vegetation condition and core area proximity.     

关联演化视角下地理学区域韧性分析的新思考

区域韧性是一个区域应对发展进程中短期冲击与长期变化、积极进行自我调适与转型的能力,表征了区域的适应性、创新性与可持续性,作为新兴理念反映了地理学可持续发展与区域研究的新需求。本研究综述了区域韧性研究进展,基于关联演化视角,探索构建区域韧性认知框架,将情境分析与过程分析并重,思考并总结区域韧性分析的方法论,尝试建立区域韧性评估方程,从经济、社会、环境及制度四个维度进行区域韧性评估,将区域韧性应用于中国地理学研究,分析中国区域韧性研究的一般性与特殊性,将区域韧性研究对接中国实际问题,以期对区域韧性研究做出理论贡献,助推地理学区域发展研究及相关认知领域的跨学科讨论、知识集成与学术交流,为国家制定相关区域政策提供参考,并为国家及区域可持续发展提供科学指引。     

社会-生态系统适应性治理研究进展与展望

社会—生态系统（SES）由社会子系统、生态子系统及两者的交互作用构成,具有不同于社会系统或生态系统单独具有的结构、功能和复杂特征。社会—生态系统适应性治理旨在通过适应性的社会权利分配与行为决策机制,使社会—生态系统能够在动态条件下可持续地保障人类福祉。适应性治理理论的形成受到“公共池塘资源管理”“韧性”和“治理”3方面理论的影响,并为“转型治理”与“协作治理”提供了建构基础。该理论具有以下3个主要目的：① 理解和应对社会—生态系统多稳态、非线性、不确定性、整体性以及复杂性;② 建立非对抗性的社会结构、权利分配制度以及行为决策体系,匹配社会子系统与自然子系统;③ 通过综合方法管理生态系统,使其可持续提供生态系统服务。因此,面对人类行为主导地表过程的“人类世”,实现适应性治理有助于应对社会—生态系统的复杂性与不确定性。鉴于中国的生态环境正处于迅速变化时期,且中国与世界各国间的相互影响日益复杂,未来研究可重点关注以下3个方面：① 理解耦合系统的多元互动过程,增强适应能力;② 强调社会—生态系统的整体性研究;③ 提高环境变化背景下理解和预测系统动态的能力。     

Configurations of community in flood risk management

ABSTRACT

Despite a notable increase in the literature on community resilience, the notion of ‘community’ remains underproblematised. This is evident within flood risk management (FRM) literature, in which the understanding and roles of communities may be acknowledged but seldom discussed in any detail. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate how community networks are configured by different actors, whose roles and responsibilities span spatial scales within the context of FRM. Accordingly, the authors analyse findings from semi-structured interviews, policy documents, and household surveys from two flood prone areas in Finnish Lapland. The analysis reveals that the ways in which authorities, civil society, and informal actors take on multiple roles are intertwined and form different types of networks. By implication, the configuration of community is fuzzy, elusive and situated, and not confined to a fixed spatiality. The authors discuss the implications of the complex nature of community for FRM specifically, and for community resilience more broadly. They conclude that an analysis of different actors across scales contributes to an understanding of the configuration of community, including community resilience, and how the meaning of community takes shape according to the differing aims of FRM in combination with differing geographical settings.