欧盟碳减排目标的经济可能性评估

经济发展与能源消耗有着密切的关系,文章通过选取1994年至2009年欧盟27国的人口、经济和能源数据,利用碳排放动力学模型对欧盟关于2050年前削减温室气体排放80-95%的承诺进行预测,并对欧盟目标下的减排情景进行了分析。结果表明：（1）以当前的技术进步速率下,沿最优平稳经济增长路线,到2050年欧盟的碳排放量将为775.608MtC,达不到预定的减排要求;（2）在最优经济增长速度得出总能源消费量的基础上,采用调整能源结构与碳捕捉技术,预期可以达到设定减排80%的任务。其每一期的煤炭占比、石油占比、天然气占比应分别有4%、2.26%、1.23%转移至非碳能源占比,非碳能源的上升速率应达到2.21%/年;（3）若以历史的能源结构转移趋势预测未来的能源结构占比,即使考虑能源利用效率和碳捕捉技术的预期目标,欧盟仍然达不到在2050年的减排目标;（4）考虑欧盟提出的四种减排路径上下限组合,可预计出到2050年欧盟的减排范围在80.51%-87.16%;（5）若欧盟重振工业（特别是制造业）,即使考虑欧盟制定的减排路径,仍存在着达不到减排预期的可能。     

Vegetation patterns and species–environment relationships in the Gurbantunggut Desert of China

The Gurbantunggut Desert is the largest stable and semi-stable sand desert in China, yet few data exist on vegetation pattern and species-environment relationships for these diverse desert landscapes. The sand dunes of the survey area are mainly of the longitudinal form from north to south, but checkerboard-shaped and honeycomb-shaped forms are also present, with the height of 10–50 m. We measured vegetation and soil data on north–south transects and compared them with vegetation and soil data on east–west transects. Analysis revealed that the varying trend and strength of the species diversity, dominance and cover of the plant communities in the longitudinal and transverse directions across the landscape are significantly different. The results of CCA ordination show that the microhabitats of soil organic matter (OM), soil salts (TS), sorting index (σ), topsoil water-content (SM) and pH relate to the differences in vegetation observed as differences in species assemblage from salt-intolerant ephemerals, micro-subshrubs and subshrubs to salt-tolerant shrubs and micro-arbors. The terrain (alt.) and soil texture (the contents of Mz and φ1) affect the spatial differentiation of many species. However, this spatial differentiation is not so marked on transects running longitudinally with the landscape, in the same direction as the dunes. The species of the desert vegetation have formed three assemblages under the action of habitat gradients, relating to three sections running transversely across the landscape, at right angles to the direction of the dune crests. In the mid-east section of the study area the topography is higher, with sand-lands or dune-slopes with coarse particles. Here the dominant vegetation comprises shrubs and subshrubs of Seriphidium santolium and Ephedra distachya, with large numbers of ephemeral and ephemeroid plants of Senecio subdentatus, and Carex physodes in spring and summer. On the soil of the dune-slopes in the mid-west of the study area, with coarse particles and abundant TK, the plant assemblage of Haloxylon persicum, Soranthus meyeri and Agriophyllum squarrosum is developed. The species composition in the east marginal belt of the study area has similar characteristics to the mid-west section. There is no corresponding section in the north–south transects (except for the north and south margins). This is because the habitats of most plants are located in the middle of the microhabitat gradients in the north–south direction in the desert.     

双坡面临空岩质边坡滑动破坏模式下的稳定性分析

多数岩质边坡稳定性分析已基本解决了常走向单坡面临空的边坡平面滑动问题。然而,在路堑边坡工程和自然边坡中有很多边坡坡面并不是平面,它包含多个坡面。多坡面边坡包含两个或多个不同走向的坡面。多坡面边坡几何特征不同于单坡面边坡,所以滑动条件也不一样。在赤平投影图上,多坡面的滑动包络线是组成边坡的每个坡面单独投影包络线的组合。为了探讨方便,只讨论了双坡面临空岩质边坡的滑动破坏模式,并将其分为双坡面临空下的平面破坏和楔形体破坏。在赤平投影图上,双坡面滑动区域定义为双坡面边坡滑动包络图中两侧坡面的真倾线之间的面积。如果有一两个节理面真倾向线落在滑动区内,滑动破坏才可能发生。     

甘肃河西走廊沙尘暴与赤道中,东太平洋海温之间的遥相关分析

春、夏季甘肃河西走廊沙尘暴发生次数与赤道中、东太平洋海温之间遥相关分析结果表明：春、夏季河西走廊沙尘暴发生次数与前二年赤道中、东太平洋海温的负相关最好,时间过远或过近,相关性反而较差。利用前期的赤道中、东太平洋海温可以较好地预报出河西走廊春季沙尘暴发生的多寡。     

Coastline configuration and geomorphologic development mode of arc-shaped coast in South China

1IntroductionArc-shaped bays are quite common on exposed sediment coast in South China, where the crenulate-bay beaches occur with the presence of two consecutive headlands and a predominant wave approach oblique to the alignment of the upcoast and downcoast headlands (Yasso, 1965). Oblique persistent swell striking a shoreline transports sediment alongshore and sculptures a coast into arc-shaped beaches. The shoreline of beach appearance mainly consists of straight segment and shadow segment…     

On the solar cycle dependence of winds and planetary waves as seen from mid-latitude D1 LF mesopause region wind measurements

At the Collm Observatory of the University of Leipzig LF D1 low-frequency total reflection nighttime wind measurements have been carried out continuously for more than two decades. Using a multiple regression analysis to derive prevailing winds, tides and the quasi-2-day wave from the half-hourly mean values of the horizontal wind components, monthly mean values of mesopause wind parameters are obtained that can be analysed with respect to long-term trends and influences of solar variability. The response of the prevailing wind to the 11-year solar cycle differs throughout the year. While in winter no significant correlation between the zonal prevailing wind and solar activity is found, in spring and summer a negative correlation between the TWC can be seen from the measurements. This is connected with stronger vertical gradients of the zonal prevailing wind during solar maximum than during solar minimum. Since the amplitude of the quasi-2-day wave is dependent on the zonal mean wind vertical gradient, this is connected with a positive correlation between solar activity and quasi-two-day wave activity.Paper Presented at the Second IAGA/ICMA (IAMAS) Workshop on Solar Activity Forcing of the Middle Atmosphere, Prague, August 1997     

中风化花岗岩地区洁净厂房地面随机振动响应分析

现代高科技生产设备对振动的要求越来越严格,在某洁净厂房的建设过程中,由于生产线扩大,需要将生产厂房的部分非微振区改建为微振区。本文针对生产厂房整体结构在地面环境随机振动下的微振动问题,建立了生产厂房的有限元动力分析模型。以实测的自由场地微振动加速度时程为激励,对结构系统的随机振动响应情况进行分析。并对3种工况情况下,结构特定节点的振动情况进行对比分析,表明加密柱网能够有效减小结构振动,从而为工程设计提出合理建议。     

Effective stress analyses of liquefaction-induced deformation in river dikes

A series of effective stress analyses is carried out on the seismic performance of river dikes based on the case histories during the 1993 Hokkaido-Nansei-oki and 1995 Hyogoken-Nambu earthquakes in Japan. Seven case histories selected for the analyses involve a crest settlement ranging from none to 2.7 m in the dikes 3–6 m high with evidence of liquefaction at foundation soil. The effective stress model used is based on a multiple shear mechanism and was developed by one of the authors. The soil parameters are evaluated based on the site investigation and laboratory test results. The results of the analyses are basically consistent with the observed performance of the river dikes. In particular, the effective stress model shows a reasonable capability to reproduce the varying degree of settlements depending on the geotechnical conditions of foundation soils beneath the dikes. The analyses also indicate that the effect of a cohesive soil layer mixed with the liquefiable sand layers beneath the dikes can be a primary factor for reducing the liquefaction-induced deformation of dikes.     

重庆青鹏煤矿-200m水平突水水源分析

青鹏煤矿位于重庆市沙坪坝区青木关镇及壁山县壁城镇,已开采50余年.随着开采水平的延深,矿井地下水流场发生了相应的变化,改变了地下水原有的补、径、排条件.2012年2月,青鹏煤矿-200m水平-22103运输巷施工过程中,碛头煤层(M2)顶板裂隙突水造成局部淹井事故.通过地面及井下水文地质调查以及采取地表水、泉水、矿井水样进行水质分析,指出矿井突水水源由须家河组裂隙水、采空区积水和嘉陵江组灰岩岩溶裂隙水的越流补给3部分组成.为矿井防治水提供了水文地质依据.