Earthquake-related gravity field changes at Beijing-Tangshan gravimetric network during 1987–1998

Based on the 46 batch repeated observations of Beijing-Tangshan gravimetric network, the gravity field changes of the region during 1987–1998 have been determined. A comparison was made between the differences of these gravity field changes and the 8 reasonably large earthquake events (M_b≥ 4.0) in the region, showing the existence of the earthquake-related gravity field changes. It appears that there is usually a detectable change of a nearby gravity field well before an earthquake, followed by an opposite change afterwards.     

汶川M_S8.0地震前地磁短临异常与强震预测探索

强震前地磁垂直分量日变化异常主要表现在幅度与相位上的变化.利用中国地磁台网多年观测资料,研究了2008年5月12日四川汶川8.0级地震前,地磁垂直分量日变极小值出现的时间(低点时间)在空间分布上的异常特征,即低点位移现象;并用此方法预测了汶川8.0级地震6级余震平静2个月后的一组6级强余震.这种少见的异常现象与强震发生有较好的相关性.发震日期为异常出现后的第27天或第41天的前后4天,强震发生地区在低点位移突变分界线附近.此外,还研究了汶川8.0级地震临震前,震中周围出现的地磁日变幅异常现象.     

Analysis on the Characteristics of the Coseismic Response of Water Levels Recorded in Three Wells in Hainan,China to the Two Sumatra-Andaman Strong Earthquakes

The characteristics of seismic water level fluctuations of the two Sumatra-Andaman strong earthquakes with magnitude 8.7 and 8.5 on December 26,2004 and March 29, 2005 recorded at Jiaji well, Qionghai, Hainan were analyzed, the features of the infrequent ＂step＂ changes of well water level after the two earthquakes were also analyzed and the mechanism of the ＂step change＂ of well water level was discussed. Then the high-sample-rate digital observation data of seismically-induced water level fluctuations of the Sumatra-Andaman strong earthquakes with magnitude 8.7 and 8.5 recorded at Nanbin well, Sanya and Tanniu well, Wenchang were analyzed. The results suggest that the dominant period of the seismic well water level fluctuation in all three wells was comparatively accordant, the amplitudes of seismic water level fluctuation of the same earthquake in different wells were clearly different, the time duration of seismic water level fluctuations of different earthquakes at the same well was also clearly different.     

利用GPS连续观测资料进行强震危险性预测的探讨

中国地壳运动观测网络基准站自1999运行以来已经积累了8年多的观测资料,目前针对地震预测、观测对象和数据处理方法,广义地提出了"点、线、面"的分析方法。实际应用表明,利用"线"的分析方法可能是比较好的方法,它最大的优点是在恰当的空间范围内不但可降低噪声,而且可突出异态信息。在目前较低测控能力的基础上,可通过全空间扫描与现象分析发现:①距昆仑山口西地震震中最近的德令哈观测站相对于拉萨观测站在震前较早的时间,其EW向就出现了缓慢变化,乃至闭锁(或无差异变化),直至地震发生为止,持续时间超过2年,闭锁数值10 mm以上,震后恢复正常;②云南地区数次强震震前下关观测站相对于泸州观测站EW向出现了闭锁或低于正常的变化,2003年强震之后恢复正常;最近的普洱强震自2006年初EW与SN向均出现了相对闭锁,两个方向的数值分别接近和达到10 mm;此外,每阶段异常的持续时间均超过1年;③塔什—乌什间EW向在新疆巴楚地震前出现了闭锁性活动,时间2年以上,数值约10 mm,震后恢复正常;目前SN向有相对闭锁迹象,并正在趋于明朗;④鼎新—西宁间EW方向有相对闭锁的迹象,但时间尚短;⑤通过寻找相对"闭锁"区段有可能成为判定强震危险性存在与否的主要方法。由此推测,若普洱6.4级地震后闭锁不解除,川滇菱形块体的西边界构造带及周围地区仍是近期强震最有可能发生的地区,其次是新疆的西天山地区,目前青藏高原东北缘尚不明朗。     

2007年苏门答腊8．5级、8．3级地震强余震库仑破裂应力触发研究

2007年9月12日印尼苏门答腊发生了8.5级地震,9月13日其西北边又发生了8.3级地震,震后在附近还发生了一系列6级以上强震。该文依次计算了苏门答腊8.5级地震后各次地震前其所在主破裂面的库仑破裂应力变化。结果表明,2007年苏门答腊8.5级地震的后续强震都发生在库仑破裂应力显著增加区,其应力变化值均大于0.01 MPa,即后续强震可能都是被触发的。     

中国东部中强地震发生的地震地质标志初探

中国东部地区,尤其是105°~120°E,20°~35°N的中国东南部大陆地区,自有史记载以来,少有7级以上的地震发生,却有不少5~6级左右的中强地震。研究此类中强地震发生的地震地质标志很有必要。对此,经初步分析认为:1)中国东部大多数中强地震发生在早第四纪(早、中更新世)活动断裂带附近;2)中国东部大多数5~6级中强地震都与第四纪断陷盆地的发育、分布有关;3)具有明显第四纪活动的构造地貌特征的地区,如线性断层地貌或地貌面的线性分布区具备孕发中强地震的可能性;4)有历史记载以来4~5级地震活动带的空区或缺震地区,也存在发育5~6级地震的可能性     

汶川Ms8．0地震的短临地电波动（潮汐力谐振和共振波-HRT波）前兆

简要介绍了强震短临前兆的HRT波模型,和用HRT波模型分析强震前地电观测资料预测未来强震的时间、地点、震级三要素方法。用HRT波模型分析了2008年汶川MS8.0地震前四川红格地电台的记录资料,提取出了汶川MS8.0地震前短临前兆信息。     

Swarms of similar long-period earthquakes in the mantle beneath Mauna Loa Volcano

We present analyses of two swarms of long-period (LP) earthquakes at > 30 km depth that accompanied the geodetically observed 2002–2005 Mauna Loa intrusion. The first LP earthquake swarm in 2002 consisted of 31 events that were precursory and preceded the start of Mauna Loa inflation; the second LP swarm of two thousand events occurred from 2004–2005. The rate of LP earthquakes slowed significantly coincident with the occurrence of the December 26, 2004 M_w 9.3 Sumatra earthquake, suggesting that the seismic waves from this great earthquake may have had a dynamic triggering effect on the behavior of Mauna Loa's deep magma system. Using waveform cross correlation and double difference relocation, we find that a large number of earthquakes in each swarm are weakly similar and can be classified into two families. The relocated hypocenters for each family collapse to compact point source regions almost directly beneath the Mauna Loa intrusion. We suggest that the observed waveform characteristics are compatible with each family being associated with the resonance of a single fluid filled vertical crack of fixed geometry, with differences in waveforms between events being produced by slight variations in the trigger mechanism. If these LP earthquakes are part of the primary magma system that fed the 2002–2005 intrusion, as indicated by the spatial and temporal associations between mantle seismicity and surface deformation, then our results raise the possibility that this magma system may be quite focused at these depths as opposed to being a diffuse network. It is likely that only a few locations of Mauna Loa's deep magma system met the geometric and fluid dynamic conditions for generating LP earthquakes that were large enough to be recorded at the surface, and that much of the deep magma transfer associated with the 2002–2005 intrusion occurred aseismically.     

Precursory seismicity of the 1994 eruption of Popocatépetl Volcano,Central Mexico

Popocatépetl Volcano is located in the central Mexican Volcanic Belt, within a densely populated region inhabited by over 20 million people. The eruptive history of this volcano indicates that it is capable of producing a wide range of eruptions, including Plinian events. After nearly 70 years of quiescence, Popocatépetl reawakened in December 21, 1994. The eruptive activity has continued up until the date of this submission and has been characterized by a succession of lava dome growth-and-destruction episodes, similar to events that have apparently been typical for Popocatépetl since the fourteenth century. In this regime, the episodes of effusive and moderately explosive activity alternate with long periods of almost total quiescence. In this paper we analyze five years of volcano-tectonic seismicity preceding the initial eruption of the current episode. The evolution of the V-T seismicity shows four distinct stages, which we interpret in terms of the internal processes which precede an eruption after a long period of quiescence. The thermal effects of a magma intrusion at depth, the fracturing related to the slow development of magma-related fluid pathways, the concentration of stress causing a protracted acceleration of this process, and a final relaxation or redistribution of the stress shortly before the initial eruption are reflected in the rates of V-T seismic energy release. A hindsight analysis of this activity shows that the acceleration of the seismicity in the third stage asymptotically forecast the time of the eruption. The total seismic energy release needed to produce an eruption after a long period of quiescence is related to the volume of rock that must be fractured so imposing a characteristic threshold limit for polygenetic volcanoes, limit that was reached by Popocatépetl before the eruption.