小震密集带与地质活动断裂的关系研究

采用双差地震定位方法对1830年磁县7(1/2)级地震X区及其附近地区小震进行重新定位,划分出小震密集带,根据小震空间分布特征,研究X区范围内断裂构造与小震密集带之间的关系。结果表明,小震主要集中在NE向断裂与磁县—大名断裂交汇处以及断层切割区。     

南北地震带强震主体活动区现象及未来趋势分析

通过分析我国南北地震带（以下简称南北带）有仪器记录以来发生的大震后,发现存在约10年主体大震活动区,并自北而南有4次转移图像;同时对汶川8级大震前后的震情活动进行分析,认为未来10年南北带北段及以西地区将进入活跃期,很有可能发生多次7级以上地震,但也可能南移;未来几年四川地区可能再次发生大震,甘肃东南部地区有可能发生6级以上地震。     

重庆及邻区地震精定位研究

采用双差地震定位法,对2008年1月—2013年11月重庆及邻区的荣昌、綦江、石柱、巫山—湖北巴东、巫溪地区地震进行精定位。结果表明,重新定位后地震震源位置比常规地震定位法得到的结果更加精确。荣昌、綦江、石柱地区地震震中呈条带状分布较明显,与断裂构造一致性较好;巫山—巴东、巫溪地区地震震中成团现象明显,地震成因较复杂。     

Patterns of significant seismic quiescence on the Mexican Pacific coast

Many authors have proposed that the study of seismicity rates is an appropriate technique for evaluating how close a seismic gap may be to rupture. We designed an algorithm for identification of patterns of significant seismic quiescence by using the definition of seismic quiescence proposed by Schreider (1990). This algorithm shows the area of quiescence where an earthquake of great magnitude may probably occur. We have applied our algorithm to the earthquake catalog on the Mexican Pacific coast located between 14 and 21 degrees of North latitude and 94 and 106 degrees West longitude; with depths less than or equal to 60 km and magnitude greater than or equal to 4.3, which occurred from January, 1965 until December, 2014. We have found significant patterns of seismic quietude before the earthquakes of Oaxaca (November 1978, M_w = 7.8), Petatlán (March 1979, M_w = 7.6), Michoacán (September 1985, M_w = 8.0, and M_w = 7.6) and Colima (October 1995, M_w = 8.0). Fortunately, in this century earthquakes of great magnitude have not occurred in Mexico. However, we have identified well-defined seismic quiescences in the Guerrero seismic-gap, which are apparently correlated with the occurrence of silent earthquakes in 2002, 2006 and 2010 recently discovered by GPS technology.     

Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest,based on multiple hazard scenarios and analytical methods

Bucharest, capital of Romania, is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage, due to the intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region, to the vulnerable building stock and local soil conditions.This paper tries to answer very important questions related to the seismic risk at city scale that were not yet adequately answered. First, we analyze and highlight the bottlenecks of previous risk-related studies. Based on new researches in the hazard of Bucharest (recent microzonation map and ground-motion prediction equations, reprocessed real recorded data) and in vulnerability assessment (analytical methods, earthquake loss estimation software like SELENA and ELER, the recently implemented Near Real-Time System for Estimating the Seismic Damage in Romania) we provide an improved estimation of the number of buildings and population that could be affected, for different earthquake scenarios. A new method for enhancing the spatial resolution of the building stock data is used successfully.     

大地震前体应变临震异常现象

本文对2011年1月至2014年4月间全球发生的80次MS≥7.0级地震前,二张营台和天堂河台Sacks体应变临震异常现象进行了研究,针对复杂震例提出了异常识别的前提条件。统计结果显示,体应变观测对震中距为8000km范围内的MS≥7.0级地震映震和前兆异常反映较好。同时,对异常现象进行了分类和描述,划分了三种异常类型：即固体潮畸变型、突变型和慢地震型,并对各种类型作了统计分析,进行了力学性质初步探讨。从研究结果来看,体应变异常信息对未来全球强震的发生具有一定的预示意义。     

Unknown large ancient earthquakes along the Kurai fault zone (Gorny Altai): new results of palaeoseismological and archaeoseismological studies

Palaeoseismological and archaeoseismological studies in the Kurai fault zone, along which the Kurai Range is thrust onto Cenozoic deposits of the Chuya intramontane basin, led to the identification of a long reverse fault scarp 8.0 m high. The scarp segments are primary seismic deformations of large ancient earthquakes. The scarp’s morphology, results of trenching investigations, and deformations of Neogene deposits indicate a thrusting of the piedmont plain onto the Kurai Range, which is unique for the Gorny Altai. Similarly for Northern Tien Shan, we explain this by the formation of both a thrust transporting the mountain range onto the depression and a branching thrust dislocation that forms the detected fault scarp. In a trench made in one of the scarp segments, we identified the parameters of the seismogenic fault – a thrust with a 30° dipping plane. The reconstructed displacement along the fault plane is 4.8 m and the vertical displacement is 2.4 m, which indicates a 7.2–7.6 magnitude of the ancient earthquake. The ¹⁴C age of the humus-rich loamy sand from the lower part of the colluvial wedge constrains the age of the earthquake at 3403–3059 years BP. Younger than 2500 years seismogenic displacements along the fault scarp are indicated by deformations of cairn structures of the Turalu–Dzhyurt-III burial mound, which was previously dated as iron age between the second half of I BC and I AD.     

Ground‐motion attenuation relationship for the Sumatran megathrust earthquakes

A representative attenuation relationship is one of the key components required in seismic hazard assessment of a region of interest. Attenuation relationships for peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and response spectral accelerations for Sumatran megathrust earthquakes, covering M_w up to 9.0, are derived based on synthetic seismograms obtained from a finite‐fault kinematic model. The relationships derived are for very hard rock site condition and for a long‐distance range between 200 and 1500 km. They are then validated with recorded data from giant earthquakes on the Sumatran megathrust occurring since year 2000. A close examination of the recorded data also shows that spectral shapes predicted by most of the existing attenuation relationships and that specified in the IBC code are not particularly suitable for sites where potential seismic hazard is dominated by large‐magnitude, distant, earthquakes. Ground motions at a remote site are typically signified by the dominance of long‐period components with periods longer than 1 s, whereas the predominant periods from most of the existing attenuation relationships and the IBC code are shorter than 0.6 s. The shifting of response spectrum towards longer period range for distant earthquakes should be carefully taken into account in the formulation of future seismic codes for Southeast Asia, where many metropolises are located far from active seismic sources. The attenuation relationship derived in the present study can properly reproduce the spectral shape from distant subduction earthquakes, and could hopefully give insights into the formulation of future seismic codes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Earthquake response of arch dams to spatially varying ground motion

The response of two arch dams to spatially varying ground motions recorded during earthquakes is computed by a recently developed linear analysis procedure, which includes dam–water–foundation rock interaction effects and recognizes the semi‐unbounded extent of the rock and impounded water domains. By comparing the computed and recorded responses, several issues that arise in analysis of arch dams are investigated. It is also demonstrated that spatial variations in ground motion, typically ignored in engineering practice, can have profound influence on the earthquake‐induced stresses in the dam. This influence obviously depends on the degree to which ground motion varies spatially along the dam–rock interface. Thus, for the same dam, this influence could differ from one earthquake to the next, depending on the epicenter location and the focal depth of the earthquake relative to the dam site. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

对地震预测有关问题的看法

文中对地震预测的一些问题提出了看法,认为影响地震预测的诸多因素中,最为关键的问题在于地震成因。利用新的观测技术,发展新的地震成因理论,或将成为地震预测研究取得突破性进展的必经之路。