菲律宾棉兰老岛2019年4次MW>6.0地震断层运动模型及库仑应力传输研究

基于雷达干涉测量技术,利用ALOS-2、Sentinel-1卫星升降轨雷达影像,获得2019-10~12发生在菲律宾棉兰老岛的4次M_W>6.0地震的同震形变场,并以此形变结果为约束,反演得到4次地震的断层运动模型。综合分析发现,此次地震序列由3条断裂的破裂引起,其中2019-10-16和2019-10-31的2次地震为同一发震断裂,2019-10-31地震断层破裂区域位于2019-10-16地震断层破裂的东北延伸段,最大滑动量约为1.1 m,约为2019-10-16地震最大滑动量的2倍。2019-10-29地震由一条独立断层破裂引起,断层最大滑动量约为2.0 m。2019-12-15地震由一条东北向倾斜断层破裂引起,断层最大滑动量约为3.0 m。此外,2019-10-16地震引起2019-10-29地震显著滑动区明显的正向库仑应力传输;而2019-10-29地震显著增加了2019-10-31地震震源区域的库仑应力;前3次地震对2019-12-15地震孕震断层的库仑应力传输总和为负值,说明静态库仑应力传输可能不是此次地震触发的主要诱因。     

Possible Cause-Effect Relationships Between Vrancea (Romania) Earthquakes and Some Global Geophysical Phenomena

The possibility that the Earth's tides are a triggering factor of Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes is investigated in the first part of this paper. A possible correlation between Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes and geomagnetic jerks is demonstrated in the second part. The last part of the paper presents a number of results concerning a possible relationship between the regularities of strong Vrancea subcrustal seismicity and the Chandler nutation parameters. An attempt is made to integrate all of these phenomena in a more general framework that takes into account physical processes in the Earth mantle and core. A long-term prediction of the next strong Vrancea earthquake is finally attempted.     

Discontinuous Nature of the Lower Part of the South American Wadati-Benioff Zone in The Arica Elbow Region

The Arica Elbow region represents that part of Andean South America where the azimuth of the strike of the Peru-Chile trench changes from 150° to 190°. The area under study is roughly bounded by latitudes 17 °S and 23 °S, The shape of the Wadati-Benioff zone was studied in terms of the distribution of ISC hypocentres dated between 1964 and 1993. A system of 22 vertical cross-sections, perpendicular to the trench axis, and a map of epicentres was used to derive the detailed shape of the Wadati-Benioff zone of the presently descending slab. The distribution of earthquake foci indicates a fingerlike shape of the lower part of the Wadati-Benioff zone beneath the aseismic gap. The slab length shows small changes around 350 km in the northern sections, pronounced length oscillations between 350 and 750 km in the neighbouring central sections and a constant value of 650 km in the southern sections. The dip and thickness of the Wadati-Benioff zone are practically constant in all sections. Fault plane solutions, separated spatially into three zones, were used to estimate the state of stress in the slab.     

Stress Field Estimations for Colima Volcano, Mexico, Based on Seismic Data

 For first time, during 1991, seismic activity was recorded during an eruption at Colima volcano. We analyze these data to obtain a stress pattern using a composite focal mechanism technique. From the analysis of regional seismicity, the Tamazula Fault and the Armeria River appear as active features and the dip of the slab east of the Jalisco Block is approximately 12°. Southwest of Colima volcano a vertical alignment of seismic events was observed. We estimate five different composite focal mechanism solutions from our data set, which indicate a change of the stress field at the volcano after the 1991 eruption. These solutions suggest that the stress field in the volcanic edifice was controlled by stresses related to the emplacement of magma superimposed on the regional stress field. No evidence of active local faults in the volcanic edifice was found. We propose a model for the eruptive process that involves tilting of the volcanic edifice. Received: 15 October 1995 / Accepted: 26 October 1998     

Dynamic variation of ambient shear stress field before and after three strong earthquakes in Yunnan

IntroductionThecrustaltectonicmovementisacomplicatedevolutionprocesswithtimeandspace.Spatially,themovementofcrustaltectoniciscloselyrelatedtotheinter-movementandinteractionofmulti-leveledcrustalblocksinacertainregionandtheirborderfaults.Temporally,themovementiscloselyrelatedtothatofmulti-leveledcrustalblocksandtimesequencedevelopmentofinteraction.Anearthquakeoccurrenceistheresultofsuddenruptureofcrustmediaundertheactionoftectonicstressfield,isalsoacomplicatedprocessinnercrust.Duetotheobviousi…     

The seismic history of Catania

A detailed study of the most significant seismic effects that took place in the city of Catania has been performed in order to build up a site catalogue, to assess seismic hazard directly from it and to provide the picture of damage scenarios which happened in the past. In the last 1000 years Catania was destroyed twice (1169 and 1693) and more or less severely damaged twelve times (e.g., 1542, 1818, 1848, etc.). Destruction or severe damage are mainly related to earthquakes occurring in the coastal sector of the Hyblean foreland, while slighter, moderate effects are usually due to earthquakes taking place in the seismogenic sources of the Messina Straits and in the inner Hyblean region. The analysis of the historical reports allowed to delineate the damage scenarios of the most relevant events. In particular, for the 1693 case-history it has also been possible to map the damage distribution with reference to the existing urban settlement of the city. The site catalogue was used for assessing seismic hazard; the obtained estimates show that the probability of occurrence for intensity 7 and 10 exceeds 99.9% for 150 and 500 years, respectively. These values, associated with the high vulnerability caused by the city growth which occurred mainly before the introduction of the seismic code (1981) and without ad-hoc planning policies, implies that the urban system is exposed to high seismic risk.     

Probabilities of occurrence of great earthquakes in the Himalaya

Long-term conditional probabilities of occurrence of great earthquakes along the Himalaya plate boundary seismic zone have been estimated. The chance of occurrence of at least one great earthquake along this seismic zone over a period of 100 years (beginning the year 1999) is estimated to be about 0.89. The 100-year probability of such an earthquake occurring in the Kashmir seismic gap is about 0.27, in the central seismic gap about 0.52 and in the Assam gap about 0.21. The 25-year probabilities of their occurrence in these gaps are 0.07, 0.17, and 0.05 respectively. These probability estimates may be used profitably to assess the seismic hazard in the Himalaya and the adjoining Ganga plains.     

Is the September 5, 2022, Luding MS6.8 earthquake an ‘unexpected’ event?

Whether the September 5, 2022, Luding M_S6.8 earthquake is an ‘expected’ event in the context of earthquake forecast? This commentary discusses this issue mainly using the recently proposed ‘earthquake nowcasting’ approach.     

Moment magnitudes of two large Turkish earthquakes on February 6, 2023 from long-period coda

Two large earthquakes (an earthquake doublet) occurred in south-central Turkey on February 6, 2023, causing massive damages and casualties. The magnitudes and the relative sizes of the two mainshocks are essential information for scientific research and public awareness. There are obvious discrepancies among the results that have been reported so far, which may be revised and updated later. Here we applied a novel and reliable long-period coda moment magnitude method to the two large earthquakes. The moment magnitudes (with one standard error) are 7.95±0.013 and 7.86±0.012, respectively, which are larger than all the previous reports. The first mainshock, which matches the largest recorded earthquakes in the Turkish history, is slightly larger than the second one by 0.11±0.035 in magnitude or by 0.04 to 0.18 at 95% confidence level.     

A 15-year-Long catalog of seismicity in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) using matched filter detection

We present a detailed catalog of 13 671 earthquakes in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) that spans January 1, 2005 to July 31, 2020. We apply a matched filter detection technique on over 15 years of continuous data, resulting in arguably the most complete catalog of seismicity in the ETSZ yet. The magnitudes of newly detected events are determined by computing the amplitude ratio between the detections and templates using a principal component fit. We also compute the b-value for the new catalog and comparatively relocate a subset of newly detected events using XCORLOC and hypoDD, which shows a more defined structure at depth. We find the greatest concentration along and to the east of the New York-Alabama Lineament, as defined by the magnetic anomaly, supporting the argument that this feature likely is related to the generation of seismicity in the ETSZ. We examine seismicity in the vicinity of the Watts Bar Reservoir, which is located about 5 ?km from the epicenter of the M_W 4.4 December 12, 2018 Decatur, Tennessee earthquake, and find possible evidence for reservoir modulated seismicity in this region. We also examine seismicity in the entire ETSZ to search for a correlation between shallow earthquakes and seasonal hydrologic changes. Our results show limited evidence for hydrologically-driven shallow seismicity due to seasonal groundwater levels in the ETSZ, which contradicts previous studies hypothesizing that most intraplate earthquakes are associated with the dynamics of hydrologic cycles.