基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Determination of subcatchment and watershed boundaries in a complex and highly urbanized landscape

Urban development significantly alters the landscape by introducing widespread impervious surfaces, which quickly convey surface run‐off to streams via stormwater sewer networks, resulting in “flashy” hydrological responses. Here, we present the inadequacies of using raster‐based digital elevation models and flow‐direction algorithms to delineate large and highly urbanized watersheds and propose an alternative approach that accounts for the influence of anthropogenically modified land cover. We use a semi‐automated approach that incorporates conventional drainage networks into overland flow paths and define the maximal run‐off contributing area. In this approach, stormwater pipes are clustered according to their slope attributes, which define flow direction. Land areas drained by each cluster and contributing (or exporting) flow to a topographically delineated catchment were determined. These land masses were subsequently added or removed from the catchment, modifying both the shape and the size. Our results in a highly urbanized Toronto, Canada, area watershed indicate a moderate net increase in the directly connected watershed area by 3% relative to a topographically forced method; however, differences across three smaller scale subcatchments are greater. Compared to topographic delineation, the directly connected watershed areas of both the upper and middle subcatchments decrease by 5% and 8%, respectively, whereas the lower subcatchment area increases by 15%. This is directly related to subsurface storm sewer pipes that cross topographic boundaries. When directly connected subcatchment area is plotted against total streamflow and flashiness indices using this method, the coefficients of variation are greater (0.93 to 0.97) compared to the use of digital elevation model‐derived subcatchment areas (0.78 to 0.85). The accurate identification of watershed and subcatchment boundaries should incorporate ancillary data such as stormwater sewer networks and retention basin drainage areas to reduce water budget errors in urban systems.     

自然和自然贡献情景模型研究综述

本文回顾了自然和自然贡献情景模型发展的背景、历史和内容,概括总结了自然和自然贡献情景模型的发展进程以及联合国生物多样性与生态系统服务政府间科学—政策平台(IPBES)情景模型的概念框架,讨论了自然和自然贡献情景模型存在的问题和发展方向。为了在全球层面解决现有综合集成模型存在的问题,根据地球表层建模基本定理和生态环境曲面建模基本定理,提出了具有中国原创特点的自然与自然贡献情景模型概念框架。     

景观生态分类与制图浅议

本文在查阅分析大量文献和前人研究的基础上 ,对目前景观生态分类和景观制图作了详细的对比分析 ,认为景观分类需要结合实际区域现状 ,采用逐级分类的方法 ;同时利用 ETM遥感影像为数据源 ,以天山北麓为示范区.研制其土地利用土地覆盖变化的景观类型图。     

平衡剖面的制作流程及其地质意义

平衡剖面技术是地质思维和计算机技术的结晶,使对断层构造的研究提高到定量阶段,其依据是在垂直构造走向的剖面上,地层长度和面积(2D)或体积(3D)是均衡的。在此原理基础上利用数学手段对盆地的构造发育史进行正演和反演模拟,直观地再现地下构造的原始几何形态,迅速提供地震剖面的构造解释方案,并对解释结果进行检验(不平衡的剖面其解释一般有问题),为深刻认识构造发育史、分析油气运移及聚集规律提供依据,提高了工作效率。其结果也为盆地模拟、油藏模拟、定量计算构造伸缩量等地质研究打下了坚实的基础[1]。     

Laboratory kinetics of C2H radical reactions with ethane, propane, and n-butane at T = 96-296 K: implications for Titan

The kinetics of the reactions of C₂H radical with ethane (k₁), propane (k₂), and n-butane (k₃) are studied over the temperature range of T = 96-296 K with a pulsed Laval nozzle apparatus that utilizes a pulsed laser photolysis-chemiluminescence technique. The C₂H decay profiles in the presence of both the alkane reactant and O₂ are monitored by the CH(A²Δ) chemiluminescence tracer method. The results, together with available literature data, yield the following Arrhenius expressions: k₁(T) = (0.51 ± 0.06) × 10⁻¹⁰ exp[(−76 ± 30)K/T] cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻¹ (T = 96-800 K), k₂(T) = (0.98 ± 0.32) × 10⁻¹⁰exp[(−71 ± 60)K/T] cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻¹ (T = 96-361 K), and k₃(T) = (1.23 ± 0.26) × 10⁻¹⁰ cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻¹ (T = 96-297 K). At T = 296 K, k₁ is measured as a function of total pressure and has little or no pressure dependence. The results from this work support a direct hydrogen abstraction mechanism for the title reactions. Implications to the atmospheric chemistry of Titan are discussed.     

RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…