东北地区水稻障碍型低温冷害变化对区域气候增暖的响应

利用东北地区153个气象站1961—2010年逐日气温资料,采用统计学方法分析了水稻障碍型低温冷害的气候变化特征及其对区域气候变暖的响应情况。结果表明,东北大部地区水稻障碍型低温冷害事件呈减少趋势,但区域性较为明显;障碍型低温冷害对关键发育期气温变化响应较为敏感,二者呈显著的负相关关系,表现为气温每升高1 ℃,东北地区冷害减少35个站次。东北地区关键发育期气温均呈上升趋势,但吉林西部地区障碍型冷害却随之增加,分析了关键发育期气温变率和气候变率,将其解释为局地障碍型冷害增加主要受气候变率增大的影响,逐日气温变率对其影响不大。     

Crossover from Nonlinearity Controlled to Heterogeneity Controlled Mixing in Two-Phase Porous Media Flows

We use high resolution Monte Carlo simulations to study the dispersive mixing in two-phase, immiscible, porous media flow that results from the interaction of the nonlinearities in the flow equations with geologic heterogeneity. Our numerical experiments show that distinct dispersive regimes occur depending on the relative strength of nonlinearity and heterogeneity. In particular, for a given degree of multiscale heterogeneity, controlled by the Hurst exponent which characterizes the underlying stochastic model for the heterogeneity, linear and nonlinear flows are essentially identical in their degree of dispersion, if the heterogeneity is strong enough. As the heterogeneity weakens, the dispersion rates cross over from those of linear heterogeneous flows to those typical of nonlinear homogeneous flows.     

Accurate real‐time hybrid earthquake simulations on large‐scale MDOF steel structure with nonlinear viscous dampers

This paper presents real‐time hybrid earthquake simulation (RTHS) on a large‐scale steel structure with nonlinear viscous dampers. The test structure includes a three‐story, single‐bay moment‐resisting frame (MRF), a three‐story, single‐bay frame with a nonlinear viscous damper and associated bracing in each story (called damped braced frame (DBF)), and gravity load system with associated seismic mass and gravity loads. To achieve the accurate RTHS results presented in this paper, several factors were considered comprehensively: (1) different arrangements of substructures for the RTHS; (2) dynamic characteristics of the test setup; (3) accurate integration of the equations of motion; (4) continuous movement of the servo‐controlled hydraulic actuators; (5) appropriate feedback signals to control the RTHS; and (6) adaptive compensation for potential control errors. Unlike most previous RTHS studies, where the actuator stroke was used as the feedback to control the RTHS, the present study uses the measured displacements of the experimental substructure as the feedback for the RTHS, to enable accurate displacements to be imposed on the experimental substructure. This improvement in approach was needed because of compliance and other dynamic characteristics of the test setup, which will be present in most large‐scale RTHS. RTHS with ground motions at the design basis earthquake and maximum considered earthquake levels were successfully performed, resulting in significant nonlinear response of the test structure, which makes accurate RTHS more challenging. Two phases of RTHS were conducted: in the first phase, the DBF is the experimental substructure, and in the second phase, the DBF together with the MRF is the experimental substructure. The results from the two phases of RTHS are presented and compared with numerical simulation results. An evaluation of the results shows that the RTHS approach used in this study provides a realistic and accurate simulation of the seismic response of a large‐scale structure with rate‐dependent energy dissipating devices. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial Breakdown Point of Variogram Estimators

In the context of robust statistics, the breakdown point of an estimator is an important feature of reliability. It measures the highest fraction of contamination in the data that an estimator can support before being destroyed. In geostatistics, variogram estimators are based on measurements taken at various spatial locations. The classical notion of breakdown point needs to be extended to a spatial one, depending on the construction of most unfavorable configurations of perturbation. Explicit upper and lower bounds are available for the spatial breakdown point in the regular unidimensional case. The difficulties arising in the multidimensional case are presented on an easy example in IR² , as well as some simulations on irregular grids. In order to study the global effects of perturbations on variogram estimators, further simulations are carried out on data located on a regular or irregular bidimensional grid. Results show that if variogram estimation is performed with a 50% classical breakdown point scale estimator, the number of initial data likely to be contaminated before destruction of the estimator is roughly 30% on average. Theoretical results confirm the previous statement on data in IR^d , d 1.     

对冀北-辽西-大兴安岭地区晚中生代地层划分、对比的区域构造学思考

根据冀北-辽西-大兴安岭地区晚中生代具有相关沉积建造组合、火山-沉积建造组合、生物组合和构造类型组合特征,提出建立与造山运动"同期"的构造地层单位概念.认为这种构造地层单位的概念有利于以区域构造演化为主线,理解"同造山期"陆缘活化区陆相沉积以及火山-沉积盆地地层系统的复杂性,并从区域构造学角度提出该地区地层划分、对比的方案.     

浅谈提高空中三角测量数据成果质量的3个关键环节

空中三角测量数据主要是为摄影测量提供定向框架数据,其质量决定最终产品的质量。笔者结合生产实践中遇到的实际问题,对提高空中三角测量数据成果质量的3个关键环节——航外控制测量,航内控制点量测,外业控制点的残差分析、空中三角测量成果检查及评定的重要性进行了阐述。     

桑沟湾沉积碳库年汇入速率的长期变化及其区域性差异

对取自桑沟湾北西南三根柱样近200 a碳来源及埋藏通量的解析,分析了湾内不同站位各形态碳的差异性,进而对全湾碳埋藏进行了估算。湾内环流、贝藻养殖等造成湾内不同区域碳埋藏的差异;桑沟湾总碳（TC）平均量1.79%,有机碳（TOC）平均量0.54%,无机碳（TIC）平均量1.25%,TOC含量相对较小,为海陆混合来源,以陆源有机碳（C_t）为主,大规模人工养殖后,海源有机碳（C_a）有明显增加的趋势。桑沟湾碳埋藏通量平均为228.9 g/（m2·a）,以无机碳为主要埋藏形式（约占70%）,高的沉积速率及生物残骸沉降使桑沟湾养殖区碳的来源及埋藏区别于其他陆架海域。     

区域矿产资源技术经济评价方法的研究

矿产资源是国民经济发展的重要物质基础。因此,一个区域经济发展战略或规划的制定,都把矿产资源技术经济评价成果作为重要的依据。但国内、外在这方面的研究和实践多只限于某一单矿种或某一矿组;多矿种综合性的定量评价实例尚未见到。本文以区域内所有矿种的矿床、矿点、矿化点构成的整体,在地质评价的基础上,于技术可行的条件下对探明的矿产可利用储量在未来一定时期内进行工业开发的经济评价的理论和方法进行了研究。先以区内大量地质勘查和开发利用的实际资料,对矿产资源优劣类型进行定量评判,论述矿产资源经济价值,以其为基础对矿产资源经济区进行划分。再按区内优势矿产资源进行开发系统评价,并分别提出开发对策意见。最后论述矿产资源技术经济评价的主要结论,总结矿产资源开发中的主要问题,提出切实可行的措施和建议。     

岷县漳县6.6级地震前区域地壳运动变形背景与断层形变异常特征

利用甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震区所在的青藏块体东北缘地区的区域水准、GPS、流动重力和跨断层短测线等地形变监测资料,结合地质构造、动力环境和已往的研究结果,分析了不同类型资料反映的震前区域性地壳变形背景、断层形变异常特征和可能的机理.结果认为：（1）岷县漳县6.6级地震前西秦岭、六盘山等构造区不同程度地存在着GPS水平挤压闭锁高应变积累、垂直隆升异常高梯度带和重力升、降差异剧烈变化等中长期背景;（2）震前到震时发震断裂附近及其外围相关构造区域断层形变异常在空间和时间上的起伏波动变化显著,尤其是汶川地震以来的波动变化在一定程度上反映了与本区构造比邻的龙门山断裂带剧烈右旋错动对本区的影响,与本次岷县6.6级地震过程有关;（3）本区有地形变监测资料积累以来缺乏6级以上震例,虽然存在不同程度的中长期形变背景异常,但何时进入短期-短临阶段确实很难把握,需要不断积累总结和探索提高.     

一种新的守时型原子钟综合时间尺度方法研究

在这篇文章中, 提出了一种基于改进的指数平滑和Vondrak_Cepek联合平滑的氢铯综合时间尺度产生方法. 以最小误差方法为理论基础, 动态估计氢原子钟频率漂移参数, 提升氢原子钟钟差预测准确度; 基于改进的二次指数平滑产生氢原子钟组时间尺度、加权平均方法产生铯原子钟时间尺度, 同时设计Vondrak_Cepek滤波器以结合两类时间尺度长短期稳定度优势, 提升综合时间尺度性能. 实验结果表明, 所提方法产生的氢铯综合时间尺度时稳可达1.60x10^-15,天稳可达3x10^-15,优于ALGOS、AT1和Kalman滤波3种经典方法产生的时间 尺度性能.