Validation of the effects of temperature simulated by multi-model ensemble and prediction of mean temperature changes for the next three decades in China

Using series of daily average temperature observations over the period of 1961–1999 of 701 meteorological stations in China, and simulated results of 20 global climate models (such as BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3T47) during the same period as the observation, we validate and analyze the simulated results of the models by using three factor statistical method, achieve the results of multi- model ensemble, test and verify the results of multi-model ensemble by using the observation data during the period of 1991–1999. Finally, we analyze changes of the annual mean temperature result of multi-mode ensemble prediction for the period of 2011–2040 under the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. Analyzed results show that: (1) Global climate models can reproduce Chinese regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, especially in low latitudes and eastern China. (2) With the factor of the trend of annual mean temperature changes in reference period, there is an obvious bias between the model and the observation. (3) Testing the result of multi-model ensemble during the period of 1991–1999, we can simulate the trend of temperature increase. Compared to observation, the result of different weighing multi-model ensemble prediction is better than the same weighing ensemble. (4) For the period of 2011–2040, the growth of the annual mean temperature in China, which results from multi-mode ensemble prediction, is above 1 °C. In the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, under the emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1, the trend of growth in South China region is the smallest, the increment is less than or equals to 0.8 °C; the trends in the northwestern region and south of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the largest, the increment is more than 1 °C.     

作物生产潜力变化的区域差异——以陕西省为例

作物生产潜力变化具有明显的区域差异性,亟需针对不同地理单元实施有效应对措施和调控策略。选择陕西省三大地理单元（陕北高原、关中盆地和秦巴山区）为研究对象,运用全球生态区模型（GAEZ）分析了陕西省不同地理单元作物生产潜力变化趋势,探讨了不同作物生产潜力变化的区域差异,辨识出影响不同作物生产潜力变化的主要因素,结果显示：（1） 1980—2015年间,陕西省玉米生产潜力总量增加了150.55×10⁴ t,小麦生产潜力总量则下降了402.69×10⁴ t。（2） 关中盆地的玉米和小麦生产潜力皆最大,陕北高原次之,秦巴山区的玉米和小麦生产潜力皆最小;陕北高原和秦巴山区的玉米生产潜力皆表现出先增加后减小再增加的变化趋势,关中盆地的玉米生产潜力则先减小后增加再减小;关中盆地和秦巴山区的小麦生产潜力都呈下降趋势,陕北高原的小麦生产潜力则有所提高。（3） 土地利用变化呈现减产效应,这一效应在关中盆地尤为显著,其次为陕北高原;气候变化导致玉米生产潜力增加,使小麦生产潜力下降;气候变化对不同地理单元的影响也不相同,在陕北高原表现为增产效应,在关中盆地和秦巴山区则为减产效应。（4） 在陕北高原,气候变化的增产效应是玉米和小麦生产潜力提高的主要原因,气候变化对玉米生产潜力的影响大于对小麦的影响,耕地向草地、林地和建设用地的转化是降低作物生产潜力最主要的土地利用变化因素;在关中盆地,作物生产潜力的变化主要是受气候变化的影响,小麦受气候变化的影响较玉米为大,以建设用地占用耕地为特征的土地利用变化对玉米生产潜力的影响大于对小麦的影响;在秦巴山区,土地利用变化是玉米生产潜力变化的主要原因,而小麦生产潜力的变化主要受气候变化影响。     

Coping with water scarcity in Kashafroud G-WADI Basin,Iran: climate change or growing demands?

This paper assesses the various factors contributing to climate change in the region of the Kashafroud G-WADI Basin in Iran; quantifies the local impacts of climate change, especially local water scarcity; and simulates and discusses several proposed methods to combat these impacts. Hydrologic and climatic data are statistically analyzed and VENSIM modeling is used for various simulations of water resources in the basin. Results show that the natural climate changes affecting Kashafroud Basin include increased temperature, less rainfall, more frequent droughts, and changes in rainfall patterns, all of which are local symptoms of climate change in recent years. However, the most important challenge in the basin is the overexploitation of surface and groundwater resources to meet the growing water demands, especially domestic needs. Changes in land use, reallocation of water uses, groundwater depletion, and degradation of the quality of surface waters have all contributed to significant changes in the environmental features of this basin, and are the main reason why water demands now exceed the renewal capacity of the basin. Proposed response measures include reallocation of resources among different uses, inter-basin water transfers, drawing water from six small dams on the Kashafroud River, reducing groundwater extraction, and replacing groundwater extraction for agriculture by reuse of urban wastewater. This study concludes that although changes in global climatic parameters have altered environmental features in the basin, local factors, such as water utilization beyond the renewable capacity of the basin, are more significant in worsening the impacts of climate change.     

全球气候变化背景下海岸洪水灾害风险评估研究进展与展望

全球气候变化背景下,海平面上升以及高潮位和风暴潮引起的极值水位导致的海岸洪水对沿海社会经济和自然环境造成巨大影响,已是国内外关注的重点。论文梳理了广义和狭义海岸洪水的定义和要素,重点阐述了狭义海岸洪水的组成部分,从致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体以及风险评估方法与模型3个方面,系统总结了相关研究方法与研究成果的主要进展,以及存在的主要问题,并透视了未来拟加强的研究方向。建议加强沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的研究,包括全球气候变化下多致灾因子耦合危险性和不确定性研究,沿海关键地区和关键暴露(关键基础设施)的风险评估研究,全球气候变化风险适应与减缓性措施的成本效益评价研究,提高沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的韧性研究,以及建立多学科间的基础数据共享机制,采用交叉学科手段以便更综合、系统、动态研究海岸带问题,保障沿海地区开展全球气候变化下风险评估的需要。     

马超营断裂带区域地球化学特征

该文探讨了马超营断裂带内各地层的成矿元素丰度特征,阐述了该带内成矿元素的分布特征及分布规律,总结了Ａｕ及有关元素Ａｇ、Ｐｂ、Ｚｎ、Ｍｏ、Ｃｏ、Ｎｉ、Ｍｎ、Ｂａ、Ｓｒ、Ａｓ、Ｓｂ、Ｂｉ等异常的特征及其分布规律。研究成果表明：马超营断裂带的韧性—韧脆性剪切带是本区Ａｕ及与其相关的Ａｇ、Ｐｂ、Ｚｎ等成矿元素异常规模、形态和空间分布的控制因素。     

A study on environmental aridity over northern and southern to Qinling Mountains under climate warming

1 Introduction With progressive researches on global climate change, an integrated study of various disciplines tends to be inevitable. Mr. Moore III, chairman of IGBP, holds that the key to integration is to synthesize scientific findings so as to get new ideas and to chance cognition up to a new high[1]. Micro-study, rather than macro-study focuses on regional change[2-5]. To strengthen the global perspective in the study, "to research on typical regions and to deepen the regional divide…     

华山树木年轮年表的建立

本文以秦岭东部的华山为例，论述了建立常规标准化、差值、自回归标准化这三种树木年轮年表的途径，指出了在半湿润地区利用这种途径建立树木年轮气候学年表的必要性，并进一步分析了三种年表对气候要素的响应及其差异。在取样环境较复杂的地点，建立多种年表有利于深入探讨气候要素与树木生长之间的关系，有推广的价值。     

Causes and effects of spatial and temporal variations of cold period in Chinese oases between 1960 and 2014

Based on daily average temperatures and observation data from 74 meteorological stations in Chinese oases, we calculate five-day (pentad) average temperature ≤0°C for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period using linear regression analysis, nonparametric Mann-Kendall tests, the Morlet wavelet power spectrum, and correlation analysis. We also analyze spatial and temporal variations and their effects on the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period in Chinese oases. Results show that over the last 55 years, the start pentad of cold period has been postponed while the end pentad has been advanced. Overall, the pentads have gradually shortened over time at trend rates that are 0.3 p/10a,–0.27 p/10a, and–0.58 p/10a, respectively. Spatial differences are significant, especially for the Qaidam Basin oasis where the start pentad is the earliest, the end pentad is the latest, and the trend of change is most obvious. Mutation points for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period were observed in 1990, 1998, and 1994, respectively. Of these, the start pentad and pentads of cold period show a periodic cycle, related to atmospheric circulation and El Nino events, while the end pentad exhibits a periodic cycle, related to solar activity. The Tibetan Plateau index (TPI), the Asian polar vortex area index (APVAI), and carbon dioxide emissions (CDE) are the main factors affecting cold period in the study area, whereas the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) index exerts the greatest effect on the Qaidam Basin oasis. The start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period increase in concert with latitude, longitude, and altitude; in response to these changes, the start pentad is advanced, the end pentad is postponed, and pentads of cold period are gradually extended. Results show that change in latitude is most significant. Overall, the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period show clear responses to regional warming, but there are different effects on each.     

近400年来北极地区和中国气温变化的对比研究

对中国和北极地区近400年来的气温变化进行了趋势分析和谱特征分析,通过对比认为,北极地区及中国基本上都有17世纪、19世纪两个寒冷期和18世纪、20世纪两个温暖期,在一定程度上说明了气候变化的全球性,但两地区气温的冷暖转化不同步。中国大部分地区(除华东、新疆、西藏区外)17、19世纪升温开始得较北极早;北极地区绝大部分站点18世纪升温较中国明显,且气温变化的区域差异较大。400aBP以来两地气温变化的周期较为一致,以130～140年、100年、80年的周期为主,说明400aBP以来气温的变化具有全球性,而且气温的变化受太阳活动的影响较大,自然因素尤其是太阳活动的影响是气候变化的主要原因。