Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

孟湾槽在百色市异常降雪天气中的作用

通过对1983年12月28日、2002年12月26日百色市两次异常降雪天气过程的对比分析,发现冬季孟加拉湾槽的发展东移在其中起到了关键性的作用。由于孟加拉湾槽前暖湿气流强盛,这种强盛的西南暖湿气流在低空冷空气堆(冷锋)上发生强烈的系统性上升运动,从而导致百色市及其邻近地区出现异常的雨雪天气。     

The GGOS as the backbone for global observing and local monitoring: A user driven perspective

A key geodetic contribution to both the three Global Observing Systems and initiatives like the European Global Monitoring for Environment and Security is an accurate, long-term stable, and easily accessible reference frame as the backbone. Many emerging scientific as well as non-scientific high-accuracy applications require access to an unique, technique-independent reference frame decontaminated for short-term fluctuations due to global Earth system processes. Such a reference frame can only be maintained and made available through an observing system such as the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS), which is currently implemented and expected to provide sufficient information on changes in the Earth figure, its rotation and its gravity field. Based on a number of examples from monitoring of infrastructure, point positioning, maintenance of national references frames to global changes studies, likely future accuracy requirements for a global terrestrial reference frame are set up as function of time scales. Expected accuracy requirements for a large range of high-accuracy applications are less than 5 mm for diurnal and sub-diurnal time scales, 2–3 mm on monthly to seasonal time scales, better than 1 mm/year on decadal to 50 years time scales. Based on these requirements, specifications for a geodetic observing system meeting the accuracy requirements can be derived.     

Late Quaternary systematic stream offsets caused by repeated large seismic events along the Kunlun fault, northern Tibet

The Kunlun fault is one of the largest strike-slip faults in northern Tibet, China. In this paper, we focus upon the Kusai Lake–Kunlun Pass segment of the fault to understand the geomorphic development of offset streams caused by repeated large seismic events, based on tectono-geomorphic analysis of high-resolution satellite remote sensing images combined with field studies. The results indicate that systematic left-lateral stream offsets appear at various scales across the fault zone: Lateral offsets of small gullies caused by the 2001 M_w 7.8 Kunlun earthquake vary typically from 3 m to 6 m, meanwhile streams with cumulative offsets of 10 m, 25–30 m, 50–70 m, 250–300 m and 750–1400 m have resulted from repeated large seismic events during the late Quaternary. An average slip rate of 10 ± 1 mm/year has been estimated from the lateral stream offsets and ¹⁴C ages of alluvial fan surfaces incised by the streams. A three-dimensional model showing tectono-geomorphic features along a left-lateral strike-slip fault is also presented. The Kusai Lake–Kunlun Pass segment provides an opportunity to understand the relationship between geomorphic features produced by individual large seismic events and long-term geomorphic development caused by repeated large seismic events along a major strike-slip fault.     

Preliminary Characterisation of New Glass Reference Materials (GSA-1G, GSC-1G, GSD-1G and GSE-1G) by Laser Ablation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry Using 193 nm, 213 nm and 266 nm Wavelengths

New glass reference materials GSA-1G, GSC-1G, GSD-1G and GSE-1G have been characterised using a prototype solid state laser ablation system capable of producing wavelengths of 193 nm, 213 nm and 266 nm. This system allowed comparison of the effects of different laser wavelengths under nearly identical ablation and ICP operating conditions. The wavelengths 213 nm and 266 nm were also used at higher energy densities to evaluate the influence of energy density on quantitative analysis. In addition, the glass reference materials were analysed using commercially available 266 nm Nd:YAG and 193 nm ArF excimer lasers. Laser ablation analysis was carried out using both single spot and scanning mode ablation. Using laser ablation ICP-MS, concentrations of fifty-eight elements were determined with external calibration to the NIST SRM 610 glass reference material. Instead of applying the more common internal standardisation procedure, the total concentration of all element oxide concentrations was normalised to 100%. Major element concentrations were compared with those determined by electron microprobe. In addition to NIST SRM 610 for external calibration, USGS BCR-2G was used as a more closely matrix-matched reference material in order to compare the effect of matrix-matched and non matrix-matched calibration on quantitative analysis. The results show that the various laser wavelengths and energy densities applied produced similar results, with the exception of scanning mode ablation at 266 nm without matrix-matched calibration where deviations up to 60% from the average were found. However, results acquired using a scanning mode with a matrix-matched calibration agreed with results obtained by spot analysis. The increased abundance of large particles produced when using a scanning ablation mode with NIST SRM 610, is responsible for elemental fractionation effects caused by incomplete vaporisation of large particles in the ICP.     

河南嵩山地区新元古界何家窑组微亮晶脉特征、成因及地质意义探讨

在河南嵩山地区青白口系何家窑组中可识别出一个碳酸盐岩微亮晶脉集中的层位，笔者等结合微亮晶脉自身的特征、成分和伴生的地震引起的其他变形特征，以及通过显微镜和核磁共聚焦显微镜下的微相研究，认为嵩山地区板状微亮晶脉与华北块体东缘胶辽徐淮地区的泥晶脉特征一致，是由地震液化形成的产物，该层位代表了一个地震活跃期。同处华北块体南缘的豫西鲁山和陕西南部相对应的青白口系层位（洛峪口组和巡检司组）也发现了同期的地震记录。笔者认为嵩山地区微亮晶脉的出现应与华北块体南缘构造事件相关联。     

利用地震属性研究准噶尔盆地西北缘拐19井区下侏罗统三工河组沉积环境

在准噶尔盆地西北缘，寻找岩性圈闭油气藏已是至关重要的问题。但人们几乎还是用常规的手段来寻找岩性油气藏，没有实质性进展。本文是以利用宽方位角采集的地震数据为基础，对数据进行高保真资料处理和参考标准层的层拉平解释。利用前人的区域地质研究成果和钻井解释成果对侏罗系的沉积环境进行了精细的描述，确定了拐19井区在下侏罗统三工河组的出油层段附近的沉积环境由湖泊相－三角洲前缘相－河流相－湖泊相的演化过程。利用地震属性解释的结果也能较好地反映目标区的沉积环境变迁，并且与区域地质、测井解释结果相吻合，为寻找油气提供了很好的依据。由此得出利用地震属性可以进行沉积环境变迁分析，为油田寻找岩性圈闭及油气藏做出贡献。     

A new magnitude category disaggregation approach for temporal high‐resolution rainfall intensities

Simulation of quick runoff components such as surface runoff and associated soil erosion requires temporal high‐resolution rainfall intensities. However, these data are often not available because such measurements are costly and time consuming. Current rainfall disaggregation methods have shortcomings, especially in generating the distribution of storm events. The objectives of this study were to improve point rainfall disaggregation using a new magnitude category rainfall disaggregation approach. The procedure is introduced using a coupled disaggregation approach (Hyetos and cascade) for multisite rainfall disaggregation. The new procedure was tested with ten long‐term precipitation data sets of central Germany using summer and winter precipitation to determine seasonal variability. Results showed that dividing the rainfall amount into four daily rainfall magnitude categories (1–10, 11–25, 26–50, >50 mm) improves the simulation of high rainfall intensity (convective rainfall). The Hyetos model category approach (Hyetos_Cat) with seasonal variation performs representative to observed hourly rainfall compared with without categories on each month. The mean absolute percentage accuracy of standard deviation for hourly rainfall is 89.7% in winter and 95.6% in summer. The proposed magnitude category method applied with the coupled Hyetos_Cat–cascade approach reproduces successfully the statistical behaviour of local 10‐min rainfall intensities in terms of intermittency as well as variability. The root mean square error performance statistics for disaggregated 10‐min rainfall depth ranges from 0.20 to 2.38 mm for summer and from 0.12 to 2.82 mm for the winter season in all categories. The coupled stochastic approach preserves the statistical self‐similarity and intermittency at each magnitude category with a relatively low computational burden. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.