Polynomial chaos expansion and response surface method for nonlinear modelling of reference evapotranspiration

The feasibility of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and response surface method (RSM) models is investigated for modelling reference evapotranspiration (ET₀). The modelling results of the proposed models are validated against the M5 model tree and multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) methods. Two meteorological stations, Isparta and Antalya, in the Mediterranean region of Turkey, are inspected. Various input combinations of daily air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and relative humidity are constructed as input attributes for the ET₀. Generally, the modelling accuracy is increased by increasing the number of inputs. Including wind speed in the model inputs considerably increases their accuracy in modelling ET₀. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), agreement index (d) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) are used as comparison criteria. The PCE is the most accurate model in estimating daily ET₀, giving the lowest MAE (0.036 and 0.037 mm) and RMSE (0.047 and 0.050 mm) and the highest d (0.9998 and 0.9999) and NSE (0.9992 and 0.9996) with the four-input PCE models for Isparta and Antalya, respectively.     

喜马拉雅地区与天山地区地壳强地震的孕震因素探讨

利用哈佛大学GCMT数据中心和前人积累的历史地震资料(1962~2016年M W>4.0地震)以及Crust2.0地壳结构统计分析了喜马拉雅地区、天山地区的地壳区域构造与地震活动间的相关性。此外,利用GFZ地学研究中心提供的静态卫星重力模型GGM03S/EGM2008和地形模型Topo计算了2个地区的各类重力异常场,同时还模拟了不同地壳弹性参数下的重力异常场,结果表明喜马拉雅地区重力异常场在水平、垂直方向的梯度特征远大于天山地区的异常特征,且喜马拉雅地区的有效弹性板厚度Te(6~15km)小于天山地区的有效弹性板厚度Te(20~30km)。最后,利用喜马拉雅地区与天山地区的GPS震间三维形变场约束了断层运动模型,结果显示两者主前缘断裂的断层闭锁深度及应力积累状态存在较大的差异。因此认为,造成青藏高原及邻区的边界地壳区域地震活动性差异的动力学因素,与地壳有效弹性板厚度、孕震断层参数及区域应力积累状态等密切相关。     

The Kellwasser events in the Upper Devonian Frasnian to Famennian transition in the Toc Tat Formation,northern Vietnam

Upper Devonian carbonates of the Toc Tat Formation in the Si Phai Pass area of Dong Van District, northern Vietnam were deposited in carbonate platform, slope, and basin environments. These carbonates yield abundant conodonts indicative of the Palmatolepis nasuta, Pa. linguiformis and Pa. triangularis zones, the Frasnian–Famennian stage boundary being identified by the first occurrence of Pa. triangularis. Two positive carbon isotope excursions are recognized, the lower excursion peaking in the interval of the lower to middle Pa. nasuta Zone, whilst the upper excursion peaks just above the local Frasnian–Famennian boundary. Based on the biostratigraphy, these excursions equate to the Lower and Upper Kellwasser events. Locally, tentaculitoid taxa (Nowakia, Styliolina, Homoctenus, and Metastyliolina?) are abundant in the interval of the Pa. nasuta Zone, but show a drastic decline in abundance before the Lower Kellwasser Event, and only two taxa survived into the Famennian.     

整体平差方法在CCD天体测量中的应用

回顾了基于底片重叠观测的整体平差方法的发展历史和应用概况，分析了该方法应用于底片资料处理没有取得预期效果的原因，介绍了小视场CCD重叠观测的整体平差研究进展．分析与实测资料归算表明，整体平差方法可以在CCD资料处理中充分发挥作用，在保证长焦距、小底片比例尺的同时，通过对CCD重叠观测的整体平差(相当于扩大观测视场)，可覆盖更多的参考星，进而达到改善局部参考架、提高归算结果精度的目的。     

Late Holocene floodplain incision and alluvial fan formation in the central Grampian Highlands,Scotland: chronology,environment and implications

A section cut across an alluvial fan and the underlying floodplain terrace in the central Grampian Highlands provides an unusually complete record of late Holocene events. At ca. 2.7–2.4 cal kyr BP floodplain aggradation was replaced by net floodplain incision. Pollen evidence and charcoal counts provide no evidence for contemporaneous anthropogenic landscape change, and the timing of the transition suggests that it reflects an increase in high-magnitude erosive flood events following overall climatic deterioration. The overlying fan was deposited by torrential hyperconcentrated flows during three brief storm-generated depositional events at ca. 2.2–2.1, 1.9–1.8 and 0.9–0.7 cal kyr BP, separated and succeeded by prolonged periods of stability and peat accumulation. During these three events, a cumulative total of ca. 6750 m³ of sediment was deposited, probably in no more than a few hours over a timescale of two millennia. These findings imply that proposed links between human activity and the development of alluvial fans or debris cones require reassessment, and that different elements of the Holocene alluvial landscape have responded in different ways to the same climatic inputs. Aggregation of dating evidence relating to aggradation or incision of alluvial landforms at different scales therefore may produce misleading results. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘Bond cycles’ recorded in terrestrial Pleistocene sediments of southwestern British Columbia,Canada

Recent data from exposures of terrestrial Pleistocene sediments in the Fraser Lowland of southwestern British Columbia reveal at least two ‘Bond cycles’ within Oxygen Isotope Stage 2. The maximum of the Coquitlam Stade coincides with the timing of Heinrich event H2, the Port Moody Interstade with Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) interstade 2, the maximum of the Vashon Stade with H1, and the Fort Langley interval with D–O interstade 1. The Sumas Stade apparently preceded H0 (Younger Dryas) but could have been in response to the same climatic signal. The timing of Sumas advances may be explained by a combination of glacio-isostatic rebound, destabilisation of the ice margin, and rapid movement over a short distance on soft muddy beds of a rising sea floor, thereby leading the timing of North Atlantic events by hundreds of years. In contrast, Coquitlam and Vashon advances were mainly over permeable glaciofluvial sediments and because of this their maxima probably did not precede the timing of H2 and H1. The Port Moody Interstade coincided with the global Last Glacial Maximum, due in part to the moderating effect of moist summer storms in a southward-shifted jet stream that influenced the Fraser Lowland at that time. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

太阳质子事件耀斑的短期预报

回顾产生太阳质子事件耀斑的短期预报,讨论短期预报在近期应做的研究．给出以下结论：（１）在６０年代和７０年代,质子事件耀斑的预报有相当大的进展;（２）新预报方法的探索和质子流在日冕与行星际的传播问题,是当前改进短期预报的关键;（３）对实际应用的短期预报工作的改进,可能需要从空间天气预报的角度,研究太阳活动区的分类．     

树轮长年表在全球变化相关领域中的应用研究进展-以14C曲线校正、环境考古和地质灾害事件定年为例

近几十年树轮年代学得到了迅速发展,现已成功建立了大量长度逾千年的树轮长年表。本文评述树轮长年表在全球变化相关研究领域中的应用。树轮长年表可为¹⁴C定年提供校准曲线,从而将样本的¹⁴C年龄转化为日历年龄,提高了¹⁴C测年的精度;也可为环境考古如古木建筑及墓葬等提供定年服务,确定古木构建筑的建造年代;树轮长年表在地质灾害事件定年方面也发挥了重要作用。然而,树轮长年表在上述研究领域的应用也存在不足,最新的国际¹⁴C会议公布的¹⁴C校正曲线中能够准确定年的树轮校正部分仅为过去12 410年,目前尚无法提供更长时间尺度的树轮校正曲线。在对木构建筑进行定年时受到古木样本量不足的限制等。因此,为了更好地发挥树轮长年表的应用潜力,应不断发掘与延长现有树轮宽度长年表,同时建立长年表的C、O同位素序列,以期为长年表的应用不断做出贡献。     

Biotite Reference Materials for Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry 18O/16O Measurements

Five new biotite reference materials were calibrated at the SwissSIMS laboratory (University of Lausanne) for oxygen isotope determination by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) and are available to the scientific community. The oxygen isotope composition of the biotites, UNIL_B1 to B5, was determined by laser‐heating fluorination to be 11.4 ± 0.11‰, 8.6 ± 0.15‰, 6.1 ± 0.04‰, 7.1 ± 0.05‰ and 7.6 ± 0.04‰, respectively. SIMS analyses on spots smaller than 20 μm gave a measurement repeatability of 0.3‰ (2 standard deviation, 2s). The matrix effect due to solid solution in natural biotite could be expressed as a linear function of X_Mg and X_F for biotite. No effect was found for different crystallographic orientations. SIMS analysis allows the oxygen isotope composition of biotite to be measured with a measurement uncertainty of 0.3–0.4‰ (2s) for biotites with similar major element compositions. A measurement uncertainty of 0.5‰ (2s) is realistic when F poor biotites (lower than 0.2% m/m oxides) within the compositional range of X_Mg of 0.3–0.9 were compared from different sessions. The linear correlation with F content offers a reasonable working curve for F‐rich biotites, but additional reference materials are needed to confirm the model.     

A New Appraisal of Sri Lankan BB Zircon as a Reference Material for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐Pb Geochronology and Lu‐Hf Isotope Tracing

A potential zircon reference material (BB zircon) for laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS) U‐Pb geochronology and Hf isotope geochemistry is described. A batch of twenty zircon megacrysts (0.5–1.5 cm³) from Sri Lanka was studied. Within‐grain rare earth element (REE) compositions are largely homogeneous, albeit with some variation seen between fractured and homogeneous domains. Excluding fractured cathodoluminescence bright domains, the variation in U content for all analysed crystals ranged from 227 to 368 μg g^?1 and the average Th/U ratios were between 0.20 and 0.47. The Hf isotope composition (0.56–0.84 g/100 g Hf) is homogeneous within and between the grains – mean ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf of 0.281674 ± 0.000018 (2s). The calculated alpha dose of 0.59 × 10¹⁸ g^?1 for a number of BB grains falls within the trend of previously studied, untreated zircon samples from Sri Lanka. Aliquots of the same crystal (analysed by ID‐TIMS in four different laboratories) gave consistent U‐Pb ages with excellent measurement reproducibility (0.1–0.4% RSD). Interlaboratory assessment (by LA‐ICP‐MS) from individual crystals returned results that are within uncertainty equivalent to the TIMS ages. Finally, we report on within‐ and between‐grain homogeneity of the oxygen isotope systematic of four BB crystals (13.16‰ VSMOW).