鲁中地区近35年不同历时降水变化特征

利用鲁中地区8个气象站1980-2014年逐日降水资料,分析不同持续时间不同强度降水的时空变化规律。结果表明：鲁中地区近35年无特大暴雨发生,降水发生频率随降水强度和持续时间的增加而减少,降水频率与降水强度的变化规律基本一致。1日降水除小雨外,其他强度降水发生次数均呈增加趋势,最多发生在7月,大暴雨的降水强度除沂源外,其他地区呈增加趋势,暴雨降水强度在中部平原和南部山区呈增加趋势,除大暴雨外,其他不同强度降水年均发生次数主要空间变化规律一致,但在第二特征向量上存在差异;持续2日降水除暴雨年均发生次数随时间呈增加趋势外,其他强度降水均呈减少趋势,暴雨的降水强度除中西部平原外,其他地区呈增加趋势,大雨和小雨最多出现在8月,暴雨和中雨出现在7月,暴雨中北部平原最多,大雨东部平原最多,中雨、小雨山区最多;持续3日中雨和小雨年均发生次数随时间呈增加趋势,降水强度在多数地区呈增加趋势,最多出现在8月,山区最多;持续4日、5日小雨年均发生次数随时间呈减少趋势,降水强度在多数地区呈减少趋势,最多分别出现在8月、9月,空间分布均匀。     

冬季大范围持续性极端低温事件与欧亚大陆大型斜脊斜槽系统研究进展

本文总结了近年来关于我国冬季大范围持续性极端低温事件（EPECE）及其对应的欧亚大陆大型斜脊斜槽系统的研究成果。EPECE和普通寒潮是冬季影响我国的两类不同时间尺度大型冷空气活动,对它们的异同点进行梳理和深入理解是非常必要的。最新研究进展可概括为如下:（1）基于极端低温站点的范围和极端低温过程的持续性特点,客观界定了我国冬季EPECE。近年来的研究表明,欧亚大陆大型斜脊斜槽系统是冬季EPECE形成和维持的主要关键环流系统。同时,鉴于大型斜脊斜槽系统的重要应用意义,建立了客观识别方法。（2）从前兆信号、环流演变、阻塞高压和反气旋式波破碎活动的角度,揭示了EPECE和普通寒潮事件之间的关键区别。全国类EPECE的发生具有一周之前的前兆信号,而普通寒潮并不存在这么早的前兆信号。EPECE以从乌拉尔山到东北亚的广阔区域的阻塞高压活动为关键特征,而普通寒潮则主要以区域性阻塞高压为其主要特征。这两类事件对应的阻塞高压活动的差异可由天气尺度波破碎活动的差异加以解释。（3）最新的研究解释了大型斜脊斜槽系统形成和维持的动力学机理。基本流场对位涡扰动的正压作用是大型斜脊斜槽系统的形成和维持最重要的动力学机制。基本流场通过变形场作功和线性平流使大型扰动维持和向下游发展。与阻塞高压不同,非线性作用并非大型斜脊斜槽系统维持的主要原因。     

Assessing the applicability of OpenStreetMap data to assist the validation of land use/land cover maps

The validation of land use/land cover (LULC) maps is usually performed using a reference database consisting of a sample of points or regions to which the ‘real’ class is assigned. This assignment is usually performed by specialists using photointerpretation (PI) of high-resolution imagery and/or field visits, which are time consuming and expensive processes. The aim of this article is to assess if the data available in the collaborative project OpenStreetMap (OSM) may be used as a source of data to assist the creation of these reference databases, reducing the time spent and costs associated with their generation. For this aim, two case studies were used, where the validation of the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security Urban Atlas (UA) was performed. The used methodology requires the harmonization of the data available in OSM with the UA nomenclature, and the subsequent creation of a LULC map from the OSM data. This map was then compared to UA to assess the similarity of the regions mapped in both. To test the usefulness of OSM data to assess the accuracy of UA, a sample of points was created and two reference databases generated, one assigning the data extracted automatically from OSM to the points where these data were available, and PI for the remaining points, and the other using only PI. The accuracy assessment of UA for the two case studies was then made building confusion matrixes and computing accuracy indicators. The results showed that for the two study areas, only low percentages of points had to be photo interpreted in the first reference database (respectively, 12% and 2% for the two study areas), decreasing the work load considerably. The results obtained with both reference databases are comparable for level 1 classes. For level 2 classes, worse results were obtained for some classes, showing that the OSM data used are not enough to create reliable reference data.     

Numerical Simulation and Analysis of Storm Surges Under Different Extreme Weather Event and Typhoon Experiments in the South Yellow Sea

In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.     

Accurate analytical nutation series

In this letter we present the first accurate analytical nutation series, deduced from the Hamiltonian theory by the authors. They provide the highest accuracy ever obtained by any analytical nutation series, since the deviation in CEP (celestial ephemeris pole) offsets with respect to that of the IERS Conventions 1996 is kept below 1 mas in the time domain, in spite of still lacking ocanic corrections.     

南黄海陆架区15ka以来的古气候事件与环境演变

于１９８６－１９９４年间,陆续对南黄海７个柱状样品进行了孢粉分析研究,结合＾１４Ｃ测年数据,参考古地磁、热释光测年等分析资料,以其中３个主要岩芯剖面资料为代表,论述了南黄海陆架区１５ｋａ以来的古气候环境演变。结果表明,在第四纪末次冰期冰消期中,气候曾剧烈波动,并逐渐由晚冰期向冰后期过渡。这一演变特点与全球气候背景下的中国东部地理环境相关。同时识别出３个短期降温和两个升温事件：其中Ａ１亚带冷期出现在     

参考作物腾发量预测的径向基函数法

探讨了采用径向基函数网络模型进行参考作物腾发量预测方法的可行性,设计多组数字实验处理研究了输入因子间相关性对网络模型预测准确性的影响,预测结果与Penman-Montieth方法计算结果比较表明,所确定的模型与改进的Penman公式计算值有很高的一致性,具有一定精度。     

近50 年华南地区极端强降水频次的时空变化特征

利用华南地区110 个台站1961—2008 年逐日降水资料,采用百分位法定义各站极端强降水事件的阈值,运用线性回归、M-K 突变检验、正交函数分解(EOF)、旋转经验正交函数分解(REOF)等方法,对华南地区年极端强降水频次的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:在空间分布上,年极端强降水频次在华南中部较大、广东沿海和广西西部内陆较小;华南极端强降水频次有3 个主要的空间异常模态,一致性异常特征是华南极端强降水频次分布的最主要空间模态,而东、西反向和南、北反向变化模态也是比较重要的异常模态。在时间分布上,华南的极端强降水事件主要发生在夏半年,夏半年极端强降水频次占全年总频次的83.7%;1960 年代和1980 年代极端强降水频次较少,从1980 年代中后期起,极端强降水频次有由少变多的趋势。华南区域各站极端强降水频次气候倾向率不一致,除中部呈减少趋势外,其余大部呈上升趋势,华南区域各站极端强降水频次的平均序列也呈上升趋势,但上升趋势不显著。华南极端强降水频次从区域变化特征上可分为6 个主要区域,分别具有不同的年际变化趋势,其中有3 个区域的代表站先后发生了显著增多的突变现象。      

Determination of Zirconium, Niobium, Hafnium and Tantalum at ng g-1 Levels in Geological Materials by Direct Nebulisation of Sample HF Solution into FI-ICP-MS

We have developed a rapid and accurate method to determine Zr, Nb, Hf and Ta (denoted as HFSE) in geological samples by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry fitted with a flow injection system (FI-ICP-MS). The method involves sample decomposition by HF followed by HF dissolution of HFSE coprecipitated with insoluble M and Ca fluoride residues formed during the initial HF attack. This HF solution was directly nebulized into an ICP mass spectrometer. An external calibration curve method and an isotope dilution method (ID) were applied for the determination of Nb and Ta, and of Zr and Hf, respectively. Recovery yields of HFSE were > 96% for peridotite, basalt and andesite compositions, apart from Zr and Hf for peridotite (> 85%). No matrix effects for either signal intensities of HFSE or isotope ratios of Zr and Hf were observed in basalt, andesite and peridotite solutions down to a dilution factor of 100. Detection limits in silicate rocks were 40, 2, 1 and 0.1 ng g-1 for Zr, Nb, Hf and Ta, respectively. This technique required only 0.1 ml of sample solution, and thus is suitable for analysing small and/or precious samples such as meteorites, mantle peridotites and their mineral separates. We also present newly determined data for the Zr, Nb, Hf and Ta concentrations in USGS silicate reference materials DTS-1, PCC-1, BCR-1, BHVO-1 and AGV-1, GSJ reference materials JB-1, -2, -3, JA-1, -2 and -3, and the Smithsonian reference Allende powder.     

MDD模式与快速冷却事件

ＭＤＤ 模式（Ｍｕｌｔｉｐｌｅ Ｄｉｆｆｕｓｉｏｎ Ｄｏｍａｉｎ ｍｏｄｅｌ） 是Ｄｏｄｓｏｎ 模式的扩展,它可以从一个钾长石样品分析中,得到温度在≤３５０ ～１５０ ℃之间的一条连续的冷却曲线,因此,ＭＤＤ 模式的一个突出贡献是对快速冷却事件的定量制约。冈底斯岩带与哀牢山－ 红河剪切带中新世的快速冷却事件与构造含义是利用这一模式进行研究的成功实例,它不仅定量厘定了快速冷却事件的时间,证实了其存在的普遍性,而且明确指出了中新世印度和欧亚板块碰撞后岩石圈质量转移过程的时间序列,定量地指出了冈底斯岩带逆冲抬升导致的地壳增厚与沿哀牢山－ 红河剪切带地壳块体的侧向挤出在时间上的同步性和差异性