Maritime network dynamics before and after international events

Investigating the influence of international events on global maritime networks is a challenging task that must comprehensively incorporate geographical, political, and maritime sciences. Understanding global maritime network dynamics is an initial and critical step in this investigation. This study proposes an automatic identification system (AIS)-based approach to understanding maritime network dynamics before and after international events. In this approach, a spatiotemporal modeling method is introduced to measure the similarity in shipping trends before and after international events. Then, a spatiotemporal analytic framework is proposed to understand the maritime network dynamics by grouping similar situation, and assessing possible indirect effects within a network. Finally, three case studies of international events, military conflict, lifted economic sanctions, and government elections, were used to investigate the observed network dynamics possibly affected by international events. The results indicate that container, tanker, and bulk shipping between India and its connected countries all declined more than 69% after military conflicts between India and Pakistan in August 2015. Tanker shipping between Iran and the United Arab Emirates increased 51% after economic sanctions on Iran were lifted. Container shipping between Sri Lanka and Singapore, Malaysia, and India increased more than 74% after the general election in Sri Lanka. These investigations demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach in assessing the possible effects of international events on maritime network dynamics.     

Comparison of temperature extremes between Zhongshan Station and Great Wall Station in Antarctica

Although temperature extremes have led to more and more disasters, there are as yet few studies on the extremes and many disagreements on temperature changes in Antarctica. Based on daily minimum, maximum, and mean air temperatures(Tmin, Tmax, Tmean) at Great Wall Station(GW) and Zhongshan Station(ZS), we compared the temperature extremes and revealed a strong warming trend in Tmin, a slight warming trend in Tmean, cooling in Tmax, a decreasing trend in the daily temperature range, and the typical characteristic of coreless winter temperature. There are different seasonal variabilities, with the least in summer. The continentality index and seasonality show that the marine air mass has more effect on GW than ZS. Following the terminology of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC AR5), we defined nine indices of temperature extremes, based on the Antarctic geographical environment. Extreme-warm days have decreased, while extreme-warm nights have shown a nonsignificant trend. The number of melting days has increased at GW, while little change at ZS. More importantly, we have found inverse variations in temperature patterns between the two stations, which need further investigation into the dynamics of climate change in Antarctica.     

天津地面相对湿度资料的非均一性检验及订正

研究中利用NCEP/DOEAMIP-ⅡReanalysis(R-2)比湿再分析资料和基础观测资料两种参考序列,对天津历史月平均相对湿度数据中存在的非均一性因素进行了检验和订正。结果显示,有9个地面站的相对湿度序列存在显著断点,占台站总数的69%。查阅台站元数据得到导致其突变的主要原因是自动站业务化,其次为迁站和仪器变更。从订正量来看,负订正量比例约占96. 3%,其中分布范围在-5.0%～-1.5%,约占总订正量的80%以上。对比分析订正前后月平均相对湿度序列的方差和趋势变化,均一性订正基本修正了非均一性因素造成的突变影响,减缓相对湿度序列长期出现异常偏干的趋势变化。同时,与朱亚妮等(2015)研制的同类数据产品误差分析发现,两类数据的误差平均值较小,但由于一些主观因素影响使得个别台站MAE、SE误差值达到3. 0%以上,造成MAE、SE误差值范围在0～2%的台站比例分别仅在84. 6%和76. 9%及两者以上。从而,一定程度上能够反映出本研究所采用的数据处理技术手段相对以往具有优越性。     

冬季大范围持续性极端低温事件与欧亚大陆大型斜脊斜槽系统研究进展

本文总结了近年来关于我国冬季大范围持续性极端低温事件（EPECE）及其对应的欧亚大陆大型斜脊斜槽系统的研究成果。EPECE和普通寒潮是冬季影响我国的两类不同时间尺度大型冷空气活动,对它们的异同点进行梳理和深入理解是非常必要的。最新研究进展可概括为如下:（1）基于极端低温站点的范围和极端低温过程的持续性特点,客观界定了我国冬季EPECE。近年来的研究表明,欧亚大陆大型斜脊斜槽系统是冬季EPECE形成和维持的主要关键环流系统。同时,鉴于大型斜脊斜槽系统的重要应用意义,建立了客观识别方法。（2）从前兆信号、环流演变、阻塞高压和反气旋式波破碎活动的角度,揭示了EPECE和普通寒潮事件之间的关键区别。全国类EPECE的发生具有一周之前的前兆信号,而普通寒潮并不存在这么早的前兆信号。EPECE以从乌拉尔山到东北亚的广阔区域的阻塞高压活动为关键特征,而普通寒潮则主要以区域性阻塞高压为其主要特征。这两类事件对应的阻塞高压活动的差异可由天气尺度波破碎活动的差异加以解释。（3）最新的研究解释了大型斜脊斜槽系统形成和维持的动力学机理。基本流场对位涡扰动的正压作用是大型斜脊斜槽系统的形成和维持最重要的动力学机制。基本流场通过变形场作功和线性平流使大型扰动维持和向下游发展。与阻塞高压不同,非线性作用并非大型斜脊斜槽系统维持的主要原因。     

Assessing the applicability of OpenStreetMap data to assist the validation of land use/land cover maps

The validation of land use/land cover (LULC) maps is usually performed using a reference database consisting of a sample of points or regions to which the ‘real’ class is assigned. This assignment is usually performed by specialists using photointerpretation (PI) of high-resolution imagery and/or field visits, which are time consuming and expensive processes. The aim of this article is to assess if the data available in the collaborative project OpenStreetMap (OSM) may be used as a source of data to assist the creation of these reference databases, reducing the time spent and costs associated with their generation. For this aim, two case studies were used, where the validation of the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security Urban Atlas (UA) was performed. The used methodology requires the harmonization of the data available in OSM with the UA nomenclature, and the subsequent creation of a LULC map from the OSM data. This map was then compared to UA to assess the similarity of the regions mapped in both. To test the usefulness of OSM data to assess the accuracy of UA, a sample of points was created and two reference databases generated, one assigning the data extracted automatically from OSM to the points where these data were available, and PI for the remaining points, and the other using only PI. The accuracy assessment of UA for the two case studies was then made building confusion matrixes and computing accuracy indicators. The results showed that for the two study areas, only low percentages of points had to be photo interpreted in the first reference database (respectively, 12% and 2% for the two study areas), decreasing the work load considerably. The results obtained with both reference databases are comparable for level 1 classes. For level 2 classes, worse results were obtained for some classes, showing that the OSM data used are not enough to create reliable reference data.     

Numerical Simulation and Analysis of Storm Surges Under Different Extreme Weather Event and Typhoon Experiments in the South Yellow Sea

In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.     

Accurate analytical nutation series

In this letter we present the first accurate analytical nutation series, deduced from the Hamiltonian theory by the authors. They provide the highest accuracy ever obtained by any analytical nutation series, since the deviation in CEP (celestial ephemeris pole) offsets with respect to that of the IERS Conventions 1996 is kept below 1 mas in the time domain, in spite of still lacking ocanic corrections.     

南黄海陆架区15ka以来的古气候事件与环境演变

于１９８６－１９９４年间,陆续对南黄海７个柱状样品进行了孢粉分析研究,结合＾１４Ｃ测年数据,参考古地磁、热释光测年等分析资料,以其中３个主要岩芯剖面资料为代表,论述了南黄海陆架区１５ｋａ以来的古气候环境演变。结果表明,在第四纪末次冰期冰消期中,气候曾剧烈波动,并逐渐由晚冰期向冰后期过渡。这一演变特点与全球气候背景下的中国东部地理环境相关。同时识别出３个短期降温和两个升温事件：其中Ａ１亚带冷期出现在     

参考作物腾发量预测的径向基函数法

探讨了采用径向基函数网络模型进行参考作物腾发量预测方法的可行性,设计多组数字实验处理研究了输入因子间相关性对网络模型预测准确性的影响,预测结果与Penman-Montieth方法计算结果比较表明,所确定的模型与改进的Penman公式计算值有很高的一致性,具有一定精度。     

近50 年华南地区极端强降水频次的时空变化特征

利用华南地区110 个台站1961—2008 年逐日降水资料,采用百分位法定义各站极端强降水事件的阈值,运用线性回归、M-K 突变检验、正交函数分解(EOF)、旋转经验正交函数分解(REOF)等方法,对华南地区年极端强降水频次的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:在空间分布上,年极端强降水频次在华南中部较大、广东沿海和广西西部内陆较小;华南极端强降水频次有3 个主要的空间异常模态,一致性异常特征是华南极端强降水频次分布的最主要空间模态,而东、西反向和南、北反向变化模态也是比较重要的异常模态。在时间分布上,华南的极端强降水事件主要发生在夏半年,夏半年极端强降水频次占全年总频次的83.7%;1960 年代和1980 年代极端强降水频次较少,从1980 年代中后期起,极端强降水频次有由少变多的趋势。华南区域各站极端强降水频次气候倾向率不一致,除中部呈减少趋势外,其余大部呈上升趋势,华南区域各站极端强降水频次的平均序列也呈上升趋势,但上升趋势不显著。华南极端强降水频次从区域变化特征上可分为6 个主要区域,分别具有不同的年际变化趋势,其中有3 个区域的代表站先后发生了显著增多的突变现象。