An Experiment Using the High Resolution Eta and WRF Models to Forecast Heavy Precipitation over India

In the present study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Eta models, recent heavy rainfall events that occurred (i) over parts of Maharastra during 26 to 27 July, 2005, (ii) over coastal Tamilnadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during 24 to 28 October, 2005, and (iii) the tropical cyclone of 30 September to 3 October, 2004/Monsoon Depression of 2 to 5 October 2004, that developed during the withdrawal phase of the southwest monsoon season of 2004 have been investigated. Also sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the WRF model to test the impact of microphysical and cumulus parameterization schemes in capturing the extreme weather events. The results show that the WRF model with the microphysical process and cumulus parameterization schemes of Ferrier et al. and Betts-Miller-Janjic was able to capture the heavy rainfall events better than the other schemes. It is also observed that the WRF model was able to predict mesoscale rainfall more realistically in comparison to the Eta model of the same resolution.     

The numerical solution of the Advection-Dispersion Equation: A review of some basic principles

The simulation of solute transport in rivers is frequently based on numerical models of the Advection-Dispersion Equation. The construction of reliable computational schemes, however, is not necessarily easy. The paper reviews some of the most important issues in this regard, taking the finite volume method as the basis of the simulation, and compares the performance of several types of scheme for a simple case of the transport of a patch of solute along a uniform river. The results illustrate some typical (and well known) deficiencies of explicit schemes and compare the contrasting performance of implicit and semi-Lagrangian versions of the same schemes. It is concluded that the latter have several benefits over the other types of scheme.     

Contemporary versus long‐term denudation along a passive plate margin: the role of extreme events

Short‐term (contemporary) and long‐term denudation rates were determined for the Blue Mountains Plateau in the western Sydney Basin, Australia, to explore the role of extreme events (wildfires and catastrophic floods) in landscape denudation along a passive plate margin. Contemporary denudation rates were reconstructed using 40 years of river sediment load data from the Nattai catchment in the south‐west of the basin, combined with an analysis of hillslope erosion following recent wildfires. Long‐term denudation rates (10 kyr–10 Myr) were determined from terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides, apatite fission track thermochronology and post‐basalt flow valley incision. Contemporary denudation rates average several times lower than the long‐term average (5·5 ± 4 mm kyr^?1 versus 21·5 ± 7 mm kyr^?1). Erosion of sediment following wildfires accounts for only a small proportion (5%) of the contemporary rate. Most post‐fire sediment is stored on the lower slopes and valley floor, with the amount transported to the river network dependent on rainfall–run‐off conditions within the first few years following the fire. Historical catastrophic floods account for a much larger proportion (35%) of the contemporary erosion rate, and highlight the importance of these events in reworking stored material. Evidence for palaeofloods much larger than those experienced over the past 200 years suggests even greater sediment export potential. Mass movement on hillslopes along valleys incised into softer lithology appears to be a dominant erosion process that supplies substantial volumes of material to the valley floor. It is possible that a combination of infrequent mass movement events and high fluvial discharge could account for a significant proportion of the discrepancy between the contemporary and long‐term denudation rates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

沉管沉放的实时监测

介绍了在沉管隧道施工中,实时监测沉管沉放的一种测量方法.它利用全站仪观测数据,通过坐标系之间的坐标转换,实时计算沉管管体特征点的坐标,从而对沉管的沉放过程进行实时监测.     

VLBI、SLR、GPS综合数据处理方案研究

按参与平差观测值类型的选取不同，对VLBI、SLR、GPS综合处理方案进行了分类。给出了各类方案的平差模型，结合当前我国三种技术的实测情况，分析了各种方案的优缺点，提出了较为可行的综合处理方案。     

近海多种卫星测高联合数据处理技术

海域海况复杂多变 ,潮汐不但受外海能量输入的控制 ,而且在复杂的海岸线、浅海海底和内陆河流运输的作用下变得异常复杂。卫星测高由于受复杂的海洋动力环境和陆地反射的影响 ,数据质量普遍较深海差。将多种卫星测高数据联合处理 ,可以大大提高近海海域平均海面高的精度与分辨率 ,增强测高卫星监测近海复杂动力现象与反演近海复杂动力机制的能力。本文讨论近海多种卫星联合数据处理的技术与方法 ,分别从提取海平面稳态和时变信息的角度较系统地研究了多种卫星测高联合数据处理方法 ,通过提取不同测高卫星海平面观测数据中与时间无关的系统偏差 ,建立多种卫星测高数据的海平面时变基准 ,从而将多种测高卫星海面监测数据融合到一个动力系统中。大大提高测高卫星海平面监测的时空分辨率 ,为联合多种卫星测高数据在大地测量与近海海洋动力学研究中的应用创造基本条件。     

高精度GPS复测网的形变基准解释

在高精度GPS复测网的平差处理中 ,首先要选择一组已知的、精确的IGS (国际GPS地球动力学服务 )跟踪站为基准 ,并对基准站坐标施加不同的约束 ,这样就产生了不同的参考基准。在深入探讨基于不同约束的GPS网平差的参考基准及意义的基础上 ,文中推导了不同基准之间的转换关系     

监测网的稳定性分析

讨论了变形监测网的参考系问题，举例说明了不同的参考基准对应着完全不同的位移场。对监测网点位稳定性进行了分析，重点介绍了平均间隙法，稳健迭代权法和单点位移分量法。     

近50年浙江省旱、涝气候变化及特征

用1951－1999年资料详细研究了浙江省的年、季的旱、涝气候变化特征。主要结果：浙江省夏季降水量表现出稳定的增加，其他季节（特别是秋季）的降水有不同程度的减少。每年在浙江省出现大范围旱（或涝）的可能性很大（约80％）。1985年以后浙江每年都要发生大范围的季节性的旱涝。浙江省年、季降水量旱涝有年代际变化。旱、涝发生的气候频率已经有了明显的变化，特别是夏季。奇异谱分析与最大熵谱分析的结果表明夏季、秋季与年的降水量有明显的长期趋势变化，它们还有10年左右的周期，而冬季降水的2年周期振荡特别明显。