试论矿产勘查中人的决定性因素

矿产勘查是一项系统工程，由多种因素构成，要想获得尽可能高的矿产勘查成果，仅依靠先进的成矿理论和找矿方法是不够的，还需注重掌握先进成矿理论与方法的管理人员的作用，在地勘行业调整与改革的现阶段，强调矿产勘查系统中人的决写性因素，认识人在矿产勘查中的地位与作用，提高勘查人员的素质，对调整，稳定发展地勘队伍具有一定的现实意义。     

Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change

Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.     

Assessing natural and cultural influence on soil in remnant tropical woodlands

Rural Hong Kong contains culturally protected enclaves of remnant woodlands that provide sanctuary for vegetation, wildlife and soil. This study focuses on the influence of natural and cultural factors on soil properties in woodlands with different human activities. At each of the nine selected sites, two pits were dug to collect soil samples for analysis of 24 physical and chemical properties. Analyses of variance between soil attributes and site factors suggest the prominence of woodland size, and important contribution of topography, aspect and parent material. Soil indicators of human impacts and the tenacity of woodland soil towards anthropogenic disturbance were demonstrated.     

Numerical study on scale effect of form factor

The scale effect of form factor is investigated via a numerical approach in this paper, where the turbulent ship flow is computed by solving the steady and incompressible Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes and continuity equations. A wall function approach is employed to bridge the near-wall and outer turbulent flow region. The numerical scheme based on a finite-volume formulation is applied to discretize the coupled governing equation. For the sake of numerical stability, accuracy and economy, an identical grid is employed to compute ship flow at different Reynolds number, where the grid is optimized for the medium Reynolds number of the investigated range. Four surface ships and two sub-bodies with notably different geometrical characteristics are chosen as the investigated cases, where double-model flow without appendages is computed. The calculated total resistance coefficient shows a decreasing tendency against Reynolds number among all studied hulls. Similar to the calculated total resistance coefficient, the calculated friction resistance coefficient decreases with the Reynolds number and varies relatively little for a given Reynolds number among different hulls. The viscous pressure resistance coefficient is less insensitive to the Reynolds number but apparently depends on hull form. Compared with the form factor calculation based on empirical friction lines, the flat-plate friction prediction based on CFD approach clearly gives smaller Re-dependent form factor, which should more realistically reflect the scale effect of form factor. The form factor exhibits a near linear and increasing dependence on Reynolds number. The numerical results show that the dependence of r_P on Reynolds number mainly governs the scale effect of form factor.     

降雨条件下顺倾向煤系地层边坡稳定性的影响研究

煤系地层具有岩层软硬不均,层间胶结较差,风化速度快,遇水易软化,结构易破坏导致强度丧失等特点,特别是夹层中炭质泥岩或页岩具有强度低、易活化、易变性和渗透系数相对较小的特点,这决定了其对整体边坡的稳定性具有控制作用。文章分析了煤系地层边坡饱和、非饱和渗流降雨条件（降雨强度）、土性参数（夹层饱和渗透系数）以及边坡形状尺寸（坡脚、夹层倾角、夹层埋深）等因素对边坡渗流特点及稳定性的影响,发现软弱夹层与上下岩体渗透性差异性对边坡稳定性影响明显;软弱夹层埋置越浅,边坡越易失稳;降雨强度越大,边坡越易沿软弱夹层发生滑坡;并非坡脚越大降雨之后边坡的安全系数降低幅度就大,而是随着夹层倾角的增大,边坡的安全系数逐渐降低,边坡越易沿软弱夹层发生滑坡,这些认识对煤系地层边坡的设计和治理有重要的参考意义。      

依法行政做好防震减灾工作--纪念《中华人民共和国防震减灾法》实施5周年

从立法、法制宣传、建立健全规章制度和科学规范的管理程序、公正严格执法、执法监督和法制工作队伍建设等6个方面，论述了做好防震减灾依法行政工作的重要性，指出。只有依法行政，才能保障防震减灾工作的顺利发展。     

俄罗斯减轻地震灾害的政策,计算和管理的分析（1994～1998）

根据近年来俄罗斯科学院与俄罗斯紧急情况和减轻自然灾害后果部的有关资料 ,叙述了该国减轻地震灾害的情况和成果 ;分析了相关的政策、计划和管理中的一些问题 ,并提出了若干参考建议 ,供有关部门研究     

雅鲁藏布江流域降水时空变化特征

雅鲁藏布江流域是全球气候变化的敏感区,该流域降水变化对青藏高原的水系统、生态系统和山地灾害系统的演变具有重要影响。本文通过流域水文分析,将雅鲁藏布江流域的三大水资源区细分为9个分区。基于雅鲁藏布江流域1979—2018年降水数据,综合分析了雅鲁藏布江流域及9个分区的年、干湿季、月降水量以及日、小时尺度极端降水的时空变化特征,探讨了降水和典型大尺度大气环流因子的相关性。结果表明：① 1979—2018年间,在流域尺度上,各时间尺度降水整体上均呈上升趋势。其中,年降水量上升趋势最大,为2.5 mm·a^-1;年、干湿季降水量以及典型小时尺度极端降水（Rx3hour、Rx12hour）均在95%信度水平下显著上升。在水资源分区尺度上,各分区不同时间尺度降水的变化趋势呈现更明显的非一致性,所有分区除小时尺度极端降水均呈上升趋势外,其余时间尺度降水的趋势变化方向各异。② 雅鲁藏布江流域降水存在明显的空间分异性,且降水空间分异性会随着降水指标时间尺度的缩短而增强。各时间尺度降水整体上均呈现出自东部向西部逐渐减少的趋势,流域东南部（分区Ⅲ-2）始终是高值中心,流域中西部（分区Ⅰ-2、Ⅱ-1）存在区域性高值中心。③ 北半球副热带高压和北半球极涡对雅鲁藏布江流域降水变化具有显著影响。研究结果有助于掌握当地降水的多尺度变化特征,可为雅鲁藏布江流域和青藏高原地区的水循环研究、水资源开发利用和山洪灾害防治等提供科学基础。     

雷暴探测研究的进展

基于达州市2015年10月-2016年9月的闪电定位和探空观测资料,以850 hPa与500 hPa温差、大气可降水量、K指数、对流有效位能、对流抑制和抬升指数作为雷暴预警因子,利用投影寻踪动态聚类方法对该时段内的雷暴个例构建了预警模型。结果表明：（1）模型预报结果定量评估的临界成功指数为72.00%,该模型对个例达到了识别和预警效果;（2）该预警模型与常规预警方法相比,具有识别率高,计算简便,客观性强等特点,可为雷暴预警提供了一种新的客观预报方法。

     

华北地区石炭－二叠系煤系地层和轻质油关系研究

对华北地区石炭－二叠系、下第三系、中上元古界沉积物和油样的低环萜烷参数用因子分析方法进行油源对比，表明石炭－二叠系部分样品与该区轻质油的关系密切。进一步分析这套地层的有机地球化学特征后，提出壳质组含量和成熟度是决定石炭－二叠系能否生成轻质油的主要因素，并提出该区煤系地层生成轻质油的成熟度下限是镜质组反射率Ｒ０为１．１％。