A Note of the Use of the Shift Technique in the Measurement of Population Change

This paper examines the issue of modeling dynamic aspects of shopping trip-making behavior using time series data and presents the results of an empirical analysis based on a two-week travel diary survey of households in Hamilton, Ontario. It is concluded that logit models incorporating time dependent variables perform significantly better in terms of both calibrated goodness-of-fit and predictive capabilities than do models which assume no time dependency between choices.     

Modeling uncertainty of moving objects on road networks via space–time prisms

Moving objects produce trajectories, which are typically observed in a finite sample of time‐stamped locations. Between sample points, we are uncertain about the moving objects's location. When we assume extra information about an object, for instance, a (possibly location‐dependent) speed limit, we can use space–time prisms to model the uncertainty of an object's location.

Until now, space–time prisms have been studied for unconstrained movement in the 2D plane. In this paper, we study space–time prisms for objects that are constrained to travel on a road network. Movement on a road network can be viewed as essentially one‐dimensional. We describe the geometry of a space–time prism on a road network and give an algorithm to compute and visualize space–time prisms. For experiments and illustration, we have implemented this algorithm in MATHEMATICA.

Furthermore, we study the alibi query, which asks whether two moving objects could have possibly met or not. This comes down to deciding if the chains of space–time prisms produced by these moving objects intersect. We give an efficient algorithm to answer the alibi query for moving objects on a road network. This algorithm also determines where and when two moving objects may have met.     

Directed movements in probabilistic time geography

This article studies probabilistic time geography for space–time prisms, that is, for situations where observers know the location of an agent at one time and then again at another time. In the intervening period, the agent would have moved freely, according to its time budget. The article demonstrates that the probability of finding the agent somewhere in the space–time prism is not equally distributed, so any attempt of a quantitative time geographic analysis must consider the actual probability distribution. This article develops, implements, and demonstrates this distribution. A preceding article introduced probabilistic time geography for space–time cones. With cones and prisms, the elementary space–time volumes of time geography are provided.     

A new algorithm for distance cartogram construction

A distance cartogram is a diagram that visualizes the proximity indices between points in a network, such as time–distances between cities. The Euclidean distances between the points on the distance cartogram represent the given proximity indices. This is a useful visualization tool for the level of service of transport, e.g. difference in the level of service between regions or points in a network and its improvement in the course of time. The two previously proposed methods—multidimensional scaling (MDS) and network time–space mapping—have certain advantages and disadvantages. However, we observe that these methods are essentially the same, and the merits of both these methods can be combined to formulate a generalized solution. In this study, we first formulate the time–space mapping problem, which includes the key features of both of the above stated methods, and propose a generalized solution. We then apply this solution to the time–distances of Japan's railway networks to confirm its applicability.     

Exploring space–time paths in physical and social closeness spaces: a space–time GIS approach

Exploring the evolution of people’s social interactions along with their changing physical locations can help to achieve a better understanding of the processes that generate the relationships between physical distance and social interactions, which can benefit broad fields of study related to social networks. However, few studies have examined the evolving relationships between physical movements and social closeness evolution. This is partially related to the shortage of longitudinal data in both physical locations and social interactions and the lack of an exploratory analysis environment capable of effectively investigating such a process over space and time. With the increasing availability of sociospatiotemporal data in recent years, it is now feasible to examine the relationships between physical separation and social interactions at the individual level in a space–time context. This research was intended to offer a spatiotemporal exploratory analysis approach to address this challenge. The first step was to propose the concept of a social closeness space–time path, which is an extension of the space–time path concept in time geography, to represent evolving human relationships in a social closeness space. A space–time geographical information system (GIS) prototype was then designed to support the representation and analysis of space–time paths in both physical and social closeness spaces. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed concept and design in gaining insight into the impact of physical migration on online social closeness was demonstrated through an empirical study. The contributions of this study include an extension of the time–geographic framework from physical space to social closeness space, the development of a multirepresentation approach in a GIS to integrate an individual’s space–time paths in both physical and social closeness spaces, and an exploratory analysis of the evolving relationships between physical separation and social closeness over time.     

Map errors that could account for deviations from a uniform intensity of land change

Intensity Analysis is a mathematical framework that compares a uniform intensity to observed intensities of temporal changes among categories. Our article summarizes Intensity Analysis and presents a new method to compute the minimum hypothetical error in the data that could account for each observed deviation from a uniform intensity. A larger hypothetical error gives stronger evidence against a hypothesis that a change is uniform. The method produces results for five groups of measurements, which are organized into three levels of analysis: interval, category, and transition. The method applies generally to analysis of changes among categories during time intervals, because the input is a standard contingency table for each time interval. We illustrate the method with a case study concerning change during three time intervals among four land categories in northeastern Massachusetts, USA. Modelers can perform the analysis using our computer program, which is free.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of tree height in a young cork oak plantation

Cork oak is one of the most valuable natural forest genera in the Mediterranean basin. Modelling cork oak growth has been a challenge for foresters in recent years because of strong site and genetic influences, below-ground competition, management regimes and age effects. Because cork productivity is related to forest height, which is, in turn, related directly with site characteristics, an increase in the accuracy of height prediction implies improved productivity estimation. A Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) geostatistical model was applied to characterize the space–time pattern of height of young cork oak in a forest stand from central Sardinia in the years 2000, 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2008. Cork oak height maps were produced for each of the 5 years. The main goals were to analyse and interpret through time (i) the changes in spatial correlation and (ii) the changes in spatial distribution of cork oak height. The plantation was characterized by an increasing spatial dependence through time, whereas the temporal range was 2 years. Cork oak height was significantly correlated with wind speed (reduced by a neighbouring forest) in all the years implying a single trend. The correlations were larger for 2006 and 2008 than for previous years. Three other environmental variables (shade, elevation and slope) were less significant and their influence restricted to 2 years only. This research has several implications for the management of cork oak in the young phase.     

2007～2010年云南GPS观测大气可降水量特征分析

利用最新云南地基GPS站观测和探空观测资料分析表明:GPS/PWV和探空大气可降水量变化趋势一致,相关性好;云南省GPS/PWV年内干湿季气候特征分明,湿季开始前GPS/PWV月变率小于干季开始前的月变率;全省GPS/PWV年平均日变化峰值和谷值出现时间一致,勐腊、蒙自和昆明具有准双峰型特征;勐腊站干季、湿季日变化明显不同,其余测站干季和湿季的PWV日变化特征与全年平均日变化特征基本一致。GPS/PWV资料能够反应云南雨季开始期时空演变趋势。     

中国东南屯溪-温州宽角地震资料去广角效应成像

由于长排列广角地震采集中必定存在超临界角的广角反射信息,广角反射信息相对临界角内反射信息存在随偏移距变化的时移现象.本文研究了去广角效应下的走时反演成像,并将其应用到东南屯溪—温州的宽角地震资料.通过拾取中国东南屯溪—温州剖面宽角实际地震资料中P波垂直分量拾取到的反射P波走时,继而使用遗传反演方法进行处理,得到了该区丰乐、新安江、松阳、青田以及洞头五炮去广角效应与未考虑广角效应情况下的一维速度深度曲线,并对比了去广角效应前后的地壳结构界面形态.结果表明,广角效应去除前后影响主要体现在壳内层速度差异,地壳浅层界面深度的广角效应明显强于深层界面.     

Research on wind-induced responses of a large-scale membrane structure

The wind-induced responses of a large-scale membrane structure, Expo Boulevard, are evaluated in this study. To obtain the wind pressure distribution on the roof surface, a wind tunnel test is performed. A brief analysis of wind pressure on the membrane roof is conducted first and then an analysis of the wind-induced responses of the structure is carried out using a numerical integral method in the time domain. In the process of calculation, the geometrical nonlinearity is taken into account. Results indicate that mean, RSM and peak values of the structure responses increase nonlinearly while the approaching flow velocity increases. Strong nonlinear characteristics are observed in the displacement responses, whereas the responses of nodal stress and cable axial force show minimal nonlinear properties when the membrane structure is subjected to wind loads. Different values of the damping ratio only have a minimal impact on the RSM response of the structure because the background component is a dominant part of the total dynamic response and the resonant component is too small. As the damping ratio increases from 0.02 to 0.05, the RMS responses of vertical displacement, nodal stress and cable axial force decrease by 8.1%, 6.7% and 17.9%, respectively. Since the mean component plays a significant role in the wind-induced response, the values of the gust response factor are not high for Expo Boulevard.