时变参数PGM（1,1）模型在变形监测中的应用研究

给出了时变参数PGM（1,1）模型的数值解法,比较了其与GM（1,1）、PGM（1,1）模型的预测精度,分析了灰区间作为预测结果的可靠性。     

基于非等时距数据序列的高层建筑沉降预测

将泊松曲线引入到高层建筑的沉降预测分析中。采用牛顿插值平均法将非等时距数据转化成等时距数据,通过三段计算法求解模型系数,并结合高层建筑沉降监测工程实例计算分析,结果表明:泊松曲线预测与实际沉降数据吻合较好,拟合曲线精度较高,预测效果明显好于传统的双曲线法和指数曲线法,具有较高的实际应用价值。     

Bankfull Discharge Recurrence Interval in Gravel-bed Rivers

Bankfull discharge was identified in some 30 gravel-bed rivers representing in total c. 40 gauging stations. The catchment sizes cary from 4km² to nearly 2700km². Bankfull discharge value increases with basin size. In the case of gravel-bed rivers developed on an impermeable substratum, the following equation emerges: Q_b=0·087 A^1·044. Bankfull discharge recurrence interval was determined by fitting maximum annual floods (T_a) into Gumbel's distribution and then using the partial duration series (T_p) in this same distribution. Recurrence interval is below 0·7 years (T_p) for small pebble-bed rivers developed on an impermeable substratum; it reaches 1·1 to 1·5 years when the catchment size of these rivers exceeds 250km². Rivers incised in the soft schists of the Famenne show larger channel capacity at bankfull stage, a small width/depth ratio and thus higher recurrence intervals (1·4–5·3 years with T_a and 1–4·4 years with T_p). Baseflow-dominated gravel-bed streams and sandy or silty rivers experience less frequent bankfull discharges, with a recurrence interval higher than 2 or even 3 years (T_p). © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

考虑间歇充填和浓度效应的充填体长期强度试验研究

为探究不同充填间隔时间(FTS)和料浆浓度对胶结充填体长期强度影响机制,配制70%、72%、75%三个浓度、充填间隔时间为12、24、36、48 h的两分层胶结充填体试件,开展单轴抗压强度(UCS)试验并探究其力学特性及其破坏形式。试验结果表明,（1）胶结充填体峰值抗压强度随充填间隔时间增大而呈递减趋势,充填间隔时间一定时胶结充填体抗压强度随料浆浓度增大而增大,且峰值抗压强度与充填间隔时间呈多项式函数规律;（2）胶结充填体试件加载过程中表现为压密阶段、线弹性阶段、裂纹扩展阶段和破坏发展4个阶段,随充填间隔时间延长,胶结充填体的破坏形式可能表现为张拉破坏–拉剪破坏过渡–拉剪混合破坏的损伤模式。研究结论能够为后期充填体强度设计和稳定性控制提供有益参考。     

analyses on the triggering facrors of large quantities of landslides in the upper reaches of the minjiang river,sichuan province

Over the past geological and historical period, tens of thousands of landslides occurred in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, an area which is characterized by alpine valleys and has been densely populated over the past several hundreds of years. Discussing the triggering factor of these landslides is of great significance to geological hazard mitigation and prevention in this region. In this paper, we focus on four aspects of regional rainfall, shape features of landslide slopes, the corresponding relationship between landslide area and earthquake magnitude, and the recurring features of the reconstructed palaeoearthquake record at Diexi. Compared with those in Nepal, both mean seasonal rainfall accumulation and mean daily rainfall for the past 30 years are too low to reach the threshold values triggering landslides in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River. Secondly, landslides in the study area are usually absent of inner gorges(canyon topography)on the hillslope toes, which are confirmed in previous studies as typical features of landslides triggered by storms. Thirdly, wide distribution of the landslides in the study area supports our notion of earthquake-triggering because the landslides triggered by storms commonly distribute locally. Fourthly, periodicity analysis of the reconstructed palaeoearthquake record at Diexi provides a few cycles of twenty to thirty years, possibly corresponding to the earthquakes of magnitudes>5.0 or 5.5 which are believed to have caused soft-sediment deformation in the study area. In contrast, like the 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, the average recurrence interval of the large earthquakes in the study area is 2.6ka. They caused tens of thousands of landslides and provided more coarse silt particles for the nearby lake sediments at least in 330 years for each time. This is consistent with exponential increase of earthquake magnitude from large to medium and of the landslide area with the increased earthquake magnitude. To sum up, we suggest that tens of thousands of landslides in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River were most likely triggered by earthquakes instead of storms. This preliminary viewpoint needs further examination in the future.     

上海地区不同重现期的风速估算研究

基于上海气象站历史风速观测资料,采用极值I型和皮尔逊III型分布估算了上海市不同重现期最大风速的时间变化以及各区（县）不同重现期最大和极大风速的空间分布。结果表明,1901~2011年,上海市10、30、50和100 a重现期的最大风速分别为21.0、24.9、26.7和29.2 m/s。1974~2011年期间,上海各区（县）10 m高度10、30、50和100 a重现期的最大风速都是以南部沿海地区南汇或金山最大,分别为19.0、21.4、22.6和24.1 m/s;各重现期极大风速也是以南汇或金山最大,分别为32.3、36.4、38.4和41.0 m/s。中心城区各重现期的最大和极大风速都最小。     

卫星钟差采样间隔对高频PPP-ZTD精度的影响

高频对流层延迟（ZTD）的提取对于反映水汽含量的高时间分辨率瞬时变化及其在暴雨短临预报中的应用具有重要意义。基于精密单点定位技术（PPP）分析了不同采样间隔的卫星钟差对PPP-ZTD精度的影响。结果表明,卫星钟差的时间间隔小于30 s时,所获得的PPP-ZTD(RMS<4 mm)比5 min间隔的（RMS<6 mm）精度要高;而5 s与30 s采样间隔的卫星钟差所获得的ZTD精度相当。     

Holocene slip rate and paleoearthquake records of the Salt Lake segment of the Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault,Shanxi Province

The Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault is a major deep fault at the southern margin of the Yuncheng Basin. There have been few studies on the fault, and the historical earthquakes are few and weak. However, the intensity of activity on the fault should never be underestimated. Through interpretations of aerial images, topography measurements and excavation of trenches, this paper studied the fault distribution, the surface deformation and the activity of the normal fault south of Salt Lake near the city of Yuncheng. By tracing faults in the three trenches, it was found that there had been at least three large paleoseismic events, at 1–3.5, 3.6–4.4 and 7.4–8.8 ka BP. Employing 14 C dating, we determined the same gravel layers in the uplifted side and downthrown side. Making differential Global Positioning System measurements of the vertical difference and topographic profile, we obtained the mean slip rate of the Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault since 24.7 ka BP(0.75±0.05 mm/a). Using the results of relevant studies, we calculated the possible vertical fault displacement of one earthquake(2.35 m) and obtained the recurrence interval of characteristic earthquakes as 2940–3360 a after dividing the displacement by the mean slip rate.     

层状云中飞机人工增雨作业间距的研究

利用数值试验方法, 设计了4 km, 8 km和20 km 三种飞机增雨播云间距方案, 研究了不同间距对有效区域的影响.从结果分析发现, 实际形成的播云线受水平风场输送作用, 与设计的航线产生了偏离; 不同播云间距形成的投影有效面积、有效作用时段不同, 其时空分布及投影有效面积所对应的地面位置也不尽相同.另外, 提出了增雨效益的数学表达式.效益分析表明, 在相同作业条件下, 8 km间距的增雨效益比20 km间距提高31%, 比4 km间距提高了23%, 4 km间距比20 km间距提高6%, 其物理原因主要是并合作用.最后, 针对交叉和平行播云方案, 提出了设计最佳播云间距的数学表达式.     

龙门山中央断裂北川－邓家一带古地震初步研究

龙门山断裂带是否存在类似汶川5.12大地震的地质记录,是地震科学工作者所关注的科学问题之一。处于中央断裂带中段和北段分界地区的北川－邓家一带,古地震研究对认识整个龙门山断裂带的大地震复发特征有重要意义。沿北川－邓家地震地表破裂带,可能有过早期活动,并兼顾是否有较多细粒第四纪沉积物,以便能较清晰地分析、判断古地震事件以及采集测年样品,所以我们在沙坝1组、和尚坪和邓家海光6组等3个地点开挖了4个探槽,并进行了断错地貌的实测,发现了该地区明显的古地震遗迹,以及该地区特殊的正断层地表破裂样式。通过探槽和实测地貌情况与前人在龙门山中央和前山断裂带的古地震研究结果的对比分析,结果显示该地区至少发生过两次地震事件(包括5.12地震事件在内),与龙门山中央和前山断裂大部分地点已揭露的古地震事件相吻合。而通过对该地区地貌侵蚀特征与地震陡坎的高度变化分析,可以得出该地区之前的地震事件与5.12地震的大小相近。