中卫-同心断裂带全新世古地震研究

通过对中卫 -同心断裂带中段和西段 7个新探槽的古地震研究 ,并结合前人对中段古地震的研究结果 ,分析确定出 140 0 0a以来中卫 -同心断裂带共发生 6次古地震事件。其中仅有 1次是破裂全带的 ,发生在晚更新世末 ,其它都为全新世以来的次级破裂事件 ,3次破裂中段 ,两次破裂西段。公元 170 9年 7 级历史地震只破裂中段 ,因此推断只破裂中段或西段的古地震震级约为 7 级左右 ;破裂全带的古地震震级应为 8级左右。从时间上看 ,这 6次事件的分布是不均匀的 ,但没有明显的丛集现象     

板内地震复发间隔对断层长度的标度关系研究及应用探索

虽然关于一些重要参数值仍然存在显著的不确定性，地学家们一致认为断层分布遵从幂律标度关系。本文我们把这些标度关系和地震分布的幂律标度关系结合起来获得了区域板内地震复发间隔对断层长度的标度关系式，再对其进行局部校准进而得到某一具体小地方的地震危险估计方法。小断层（未跨越孕震层与断４层）的标度资料表明地震复发间隔和断层长度的负幂成比例变化。由于最近认识到了大震标度中参数的不确定性，对于大断层（跨越孕震层的断层），其地震复发间隔是和断层长度的负幂还是和正幂成比例变化的问题是不确定的，这个问题对地震危险估计是至关重要的。     

乌鲁木齐—沙湾一带地震活动特点的初步研究

采用b值时间扫描及地震复发周期等统计方法,对乌鲁木齐至沙湾一带1977年以来的地震观测资料进行了计算分析。初步结果表明:研究区域内5.0级以上中强地震发生前,b值均出现不同程度的负异常。利用地震复发周期计算公式和未来地震震级定量计算公式,得到区内不同震级区间的平均复发周期及今后2年左右可能发生的最大地震震级。     

Statistical analysis of seismic data from north-western and western Argentina

Due to the process of subduction of the Nazca Plate, high seismic activity is observed near the Argentine Andean range between 21°S and 36°S. The new version of the Argentine Seismic Catalogue, which includes well-defined events during the period 1964–1989, allows us to perform an analysis of seismic risk.Earthquakes with epicenters in the provinces included in the north-western and western regions were studied using Gumbel III extreme value distribution. Modal extreme magnitudes and return periods were calculated for both regions and the results were compard with the ones obtained through the entire process techniques (both analytical and graphical).As a first study, we analyzed each province separately, after which mean values for each region were obtained. Modal values around 5–5.5 have been found and times of recurrence for events withm _b >6 of approximately 25 years were obtained.Also at CONICET (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Técnicas).     

Rupture segmentation and assessment of probabilities of seismic potential on the Xiaojiang fault zone

Spatial distribution of sources of strong and large earthquakes on the Xiaojiang fault zone in eastern Yunnan is studied according to historical earthquake data. 7 segments of relatively independent sources or basic units of rupture along the fault zone have been identified preliminarily. On every segment, time intervals between main historical earthquakes are generally characterized by “time-predictable” recurrence behavior with indetermination. A statistic model for the time intervals between earthquakes of the fault zone has been preliminarily established. And a mathematical method has been introduced into this paper to reckon average recurrence interval between earthquakes under the condition of having known the size of the last event at a specific segment. Based on these, ranges of the average recurrence intervals given confidence have been estimated for events of various sizes on the fault zone. Further, the author puts forward a real-time probabilistic model that is suitable to analyze seismic potential for individual segments along a fault zone on which earthquake recurrence intervals have been characterized by quasi-time-predictable behavior, and applies this model to calculate conditional probabilities and probability gains of earthquake recurring on the individual segments of the Xiaojiang fault zone during the period from 1991 to 2005. As a consequence, it has shown that two parts of this fault zone, from south of Dongchuan to Songming and from Chengjiang to Huaning, have relatively high likelihoods for strong or large earthquake recurring in the future. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 322–330, 1993.     

准时间可预报复发行为与断裂带分段发震概率估计

反不确定性引入“时间可预报模式”，可将一次地震之后的平静时间表示成与这次地震位错量在小呈正相关的随机变量。称这种带有不确定性的地震原地复发行为为“准时间可预报行为”。对于历史地震资料，准时间可预报复发行为可由地震后平静时间的对数与地震烈度的回归方程。文中给出了估计一条枯断裂带不同段落以上一次地震烈度值为背景的平均复发时间间隔的方法，以及可用 于对未来地震潜势进行不确定评价的实时概率模型，并以鲜水河     

鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级（M≥67）及复发间隔研究

鲜水河断裂带是四川西部一条晚第四纪强烈左旋走滑活动的构造带，历史上发生多次强震. 它与西北侧的甘孜—玉树断裂带一起，构成青藏高原东部的侧向滑移构造系统中的川滇活动地块的北边界——羌塘地块的东北边界. 鲜水河断裂带北西段可以分成4个段落，每一段落均可作为一个独立的基本破裂单元而发生地震破裂，亦有可能发生不同尺度的多段联合瞧裂. 对鲜水河断裂带北西段不同尺度破裂的震级及复发间隔进行研究. 根据该地区的地质、地球物理、测量及地震等方面的资料，结合我国强震复发的特点，分析了拉分盆地内部的滑动速率分布，以确定各段落的等效长度和倾向宽度，从而建立适合我国大陆走滑断裂的面波震级与断裂发震面积的关系式；进而运用地震矩方法，考虑断层之间的相互作用，结合专家意见建立了该段的矩平衡断裂破裂模型；最后，给出了鲜水河断裂带北西段各破裂源特征化地震的复发间隔、震级大小和不确定性，以及他与中小地震的联合震级分布. 结果表明，鲜水河断裂带北西段较易发生单段破裂，复发间隔在100～150年左右.     

稻谷安全种植土壤重金属限值的基于置信区间评价法

由于现有国家土壤环境质量标准在应用于浙江土壤环境质量评价的过程中过于严格,在土壤环境质量评价过程中Ⅰ类土壤过少并与实际情况不符.本文以Cd元素为例提出基于土壤-籽实生态安全响应关系模型的土地生态安全性置信区间评价法,并应用于浙江省上虞市土地生态安全评价标准值的确定.通过描述具体的计算过程得出Cd的安全界限值、基本安全界限值和危险界限值分别为324μg/kg、563μg/kg和802μg/kg.得出的3个界限值比较符合浙江省上虞市的实际情况.     

基于区间树索引的等高线提取算法

重新设计了从高程格网中提取等高线过程中的遍历策略，以保证提取结果具有统一的方向；针对日益增长的高程格网数据量，提出了基于区间树索引来查找等高线起点的算法。