汾渭地震带地震发生的统计分析

应用极值理论、马尔科夫过程、震级－频度关系等６种方法，分别对汾渭地震带地震发生的规律性进行了讨论，各种方法取得了比较一致的预测效果。经计算得到：汾渭地震带今后５年内，有可能发生Ｍｓ＝５．０级左右的地震，发生Ｍｓ＞５．５级地震的可能性较小；Ｍｓ＝５．０、５．５级地震的复发周期分别为６年和２５年左右；自１３００年以来．其５．０级以上的地震活动存在着２３０±１０年的卓越周期。     

MOMENT DEFICITS ON THE MAJOR FAULTS AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN THE EASTERN HIMALAYAN SYNTAXIS

The Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis(EHS)is a critical region for studying the tectonic evolution of Tibetan plateau, which was affected by the intense seismic activities. We use the theory of moment balance, GPS velocities and historical earthquake records to analyze the moment deficits in the EHS, assess the future seismicity and further to predict the recurrence interval of the 1950 Chayu M_S8.6 earthquake. We first collected multiple sets of GPS velocity fields and combined them to reduce the systematic bias. Then a micro-blocks model, constrained by GPS velocities, was built by TDEFNODE software to simultaneously invert the fault elastic strain parameters and rigid motion parameters based on the grid research and simulated annealing methods. The long-term slip rates on the faults were further estimated by the differential motions between the neighboring blocks. The results show that the nearly NS dextral strike-slip faults, Naga Fault and Sagaing Fault, slip with the average rates of ~10.6 and ~16.6mm/a, which are consistent with the lateral extrusion in the Tibetan plateau. However, the Main Frontal Thrust shows a distinguished sinistral strike-slip feature(6~10mm/a), possibly caused by the NNE pushing from the Indian plate to the Eurasian plate. On the other hand, because the EHS is located in frontal area of the collision between Indian and Eurasian plate, most faults show thrusting feature. The most obvious one is the Mishimi Fault, slipping with the rate of 23.3mm/a, implying that the convergence rate of the Indo-European plates is largely absorbed by this fault. The moment accumulation rate in the EHS is higher than the average rate in the Tibetan plateau and the total moment accumulation is(1.15±0.03)×10²² N·m in the last 200a. About 59.7% and 21.6% of the moment accumulation rate concentrate on the Main Frontal Thrust and Mishimi Fault. Second, we selected the earthquake records occurring on the upper crust since 1800AD to analyze the moment release in the EHS based on the data from the International Seismological Centre, United States Geological Survey, and catalogue of historical strong earthquakes in China and some other previous studies. In addition, the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Project and linear regression method were adopted to estimate the relationship between body wave magnitude(m_b), surface wave magnitude(M_S), local magnitude(M_L)and the moment(M₀). Then we further estimated the total fault moment release in the EHS, (5.50±2.54)×10²¹N·m, which is significantly lower than the total moment accumulation. About 79.2% of the moment release occurs on the Mishimi Fault, this is because the 1950 M_S8.6 Chayu earthquake is assumed to have ruptured on this fault. Finally, the present-day moment deficits on the faults in the EHS were calculated by the differences between the moment accumulation and release, which represent the possibility to produce earthquakes on the upper crust faults in the future. The largest moment deficit was found on the Main Frontal Thrust near Bhutan, which is able to rupture with M_W8.1+. Similarly, earthquakes with M_W7.5+ and M_W7.3+ have the potentials to occur on the Naga Fault and the Jiali Fault near Tongmai. However, the future earthquake scales may be less than M_W7.1 on the remaining faults. Moderate minor earthquakes are the main activity in the area near the Yarlung Zangbo Suture zone and the southern Sagaing Fault. Although the Chayu M_S8.6 earthquake occurred near the Mishimi Fault and the eastern MFT, the earthquake risk on those two faults cannot be ignored. Meanwhile, no matter which fault produced the Chayu earthquake, its recurrence will likely be 660a to 1 030a.     

Statistical analysis of the largest possible earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast for selected return periods

ABSTRACT

In this work, we have studied the largest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast by using the principles of Extreme Value Analysis based on its two approaches: Block Maxima and Peaks-over-Threshold. First, before modelling the recorded earthquakes, the K-means clustering technique was applied to determine a classification according to the level of magnitude of the earthquakes. Then, models based on the Extreme Value theory of earthquake magnitudes were developed for each of the four clusters that were found, and finally, the best-fitted models were those known as Fréchet and Gumbel ones. The zone with the greatest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast is located between the north of the province of Manabí and the south of the province of Esmeraldas, with a return period of 50 years for an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7.7 M_W.     

1303年山西洪洞8级大地震的时间有序性特征

1303年山西洪洞地震是我国历史记录中被确认的第一个8级大地震。引入有序系列和有序组合的含义,对1303年山西洪洞地震和1556年陕西华县地震分别形成的2个有序系列进行了研究,认为2个8级地震的发震时间有一个时间差(τ)。2个τ值之差用△τ来表示。若2个τ值相差不大,则4个地震(有时可以是3个地震)组成一个有序组合。2个有序系列可有7个有序组合。7个有序组合的τ值在100a～450a范围变化,但它们的△τ值仅在10d～2400d范围内变化,表示了2个有序序列之间的密切联系。震例表明,1303年洪洞大地震与其他8级地震之间的间隔的形成机制可能与沙罗周期有关。     

流域水资源承载能力综合评价的多目标决策-理想区间模型

水资源承载能力评价，是一个由多目标组成的复杂巨系统，其难点是如何合理地建立评价该系统的数学模型。由于评价标准是区间概念而非点的概念，因而传统的多目标决策一理想点法把评价标准处理成理想点存在一定缺陷。为了克服这种缺陷，对多目标决策理想点法进行了改进，提出了一种新的评价模型——多目标决策一理想区间模型(MODMIIM)，介绍了MODMIIM的原理，给出了其构成方法，并用MODMIIM对淮河流域的水资源承载能力进行了综合评价，结论为淮河流域的水资源承载能力总体上较弱。MODMIIM可操作性强，计算结果稳定、合理。与多目标决策一理想点法相比，MODMIIM具有更大的适用性。MODMIIM可广泛应用于各种水资源综合评价问题中。     

Nocturnal Surface-Layer Characteristics at the Bottom of a Valley

Nighttime data collected at the bottom of a valley locatedin southern Brazil are studied. The analyzed quantities includemomentum and sensible heat fluxes, turbulence statistics andintermittency factors, and their relationship to the stability parameter.The proper interval for averaging and flux calculations is foundto be 20 min, based on the comparison of the fluxes and therandom error associated in their determination. Each data seriesis classified as calm or windy, according to the mean windspeed. A much better dependency of the variables in terms of thestability parameter is found under windy conditions. Analysis ofthe wind direction and topographic scales indicates that distortioneffects under calm conditions affect the flow, while the flow is inlocal equilibrium for windy conditions. In this case, the sensible heatflux shows a minimum for a value of z/L=0.08, while the momentumflux and the normalized scales of the wind components andtemperature decrease monotonically as the stability increases. Anintermittency factor is proposed and shown to be larger (moreintermittency) for more stable conditions.     

高分辨率数字航测相机现状和思考

本文根据国内外数字航测相机发展的实际情况，对于新型数字航测相机视场角、影像分辨率、像移补偿、摄影间隔和影像存贮器容量、相机系统的动态定位与定向以及真彩色与多光谱摄影等技术问题进行了分析并给出了相应的结论。     

Surface ruptures induced by the devastating 1068 AD earthquake in the southern Arava valley, Dead Sea Rift, Israel

The Elat fault (a segment of the Dead Sea Transform) runs along the southern Arava valley (part of the Dead Sea Rift, Israel) forming a complex fault zone that displays a time-dependent seismic behaviour. Paleoseismic evidence shows that this fault zone has generated at least 15 earthquakes of magnitude larger than M 6 during the late Pleistocene and the Holocene. However, at present the Elat fault is one of the quietest segments of the Dead Sea Transform, lacking even microsesimicity. The last event detected in the southern Arava valley occurred in the Avrona playa and was strong enough to have deformed the playa and to change it from a closed basin with internal drainage into an open basin draining to the south.Paleoseismological, geophysical and archaeological evidences indicate that this event was the historical devastating earthquake, which occurred in 1068 AD in the eastern Mediterranean region. According to the present study this event was strong enough to rupture the surface, reactivate at least two fault branches of the Elat fault and vertically displace the surface and an early Islamic irrigation system by at least 1 m. In addition, the playa area was uplifted between 2.5 and 3 m along the eastern part of the Elat fault shear zone. Such values are compatible with an earthquake magnitude ranging between M 6.6 and 7. Since the average recurrence interval of strong earthquakes during the Holocene along the Elat fault is about 1.2 ± 0.3 ky and the last earthquake occurred more about 1000 years ago, the possibility of a very strong earthquake in this area in the future should be seriously considered in assessing seismic hazards.     

Evaluation of earthquake potential along the Northern Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea using comparisons of GPS strain and seismotectonic parameters

Seismotectonic parameters including the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and multifractal dimensions D₂ and D₁₅ of seismicity patterns (both spatial and temporal) were compared to GPS-derived maximum shear and dilatation strains measured in the Marmara Sea region of western Turkey along the Northern Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). Comparisons of seismotectonic parameters and GPS-derived maximum shear and dilatation strain along the NAFZ in the vicinity of the 1999 M7.4 Izmit earthquake reveal a positive correlation (r = 0.5, p = 0.05) between average dilatation and the Gutenberg-Richter b-value. Significant negative correlation (r = − 0.56, p = 0.03 and r = − 0.56, p = 0.02) was also observed between the spatial fractal dimension D₂ and GPS-derived maximum geodetic and shear strain. This relationship suggests that, as maximum geodetic and shear strains increase, seismicity becomes increasingly clustered.Anomalous interrelationships are observed in the Marmara Sea region prior to the Izmit event along a bend in the NAFZ near the eastern end of the Marmara Sea known as the Northern Boundary Fault (NBF). An asperity is located near the northwest end of the NBF. Along the 50-km length of the NBF, GPS strains become slightly compressive. The correlation between b-value and GPS-derived dilatation suggests that regions in compression have increased probability of larger magnitude rupture. The NBF appears to serve as an impediment to the transfer of strain from east to west along the NAFZ. Recurrence times for large earthquakes along the NBF are larger than in surrounding areas. Temporal clustering of seismicity in the vicinity of the NBF may represent foreshocks of an impending rupture.     

鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级（M≥67）及复发间隔研究

鲜水河断裂带是四川西部一条晚第四纪强烈左旋走滑活动的构造带，历史上发生多次强震. 它与西北侧的甘孜—玉树断裂带一起，构成青藏高原东部的侧向滑移构造系统中的川滇活动地块的北边界——羌塘地块的东北边界. 鲜水河断裂带北西段可以分成4个段落，每一段落均可作为一个独立的基本破裂单元而发生地震破裂，亦有可能发生不同尺度的多段联合瞧裂. 对鲜水河断裂带北西段不同尺度破裂的震级及复发间隔进行研究. 根据该地区的地质、地球物理、测量及地震等方面的资料，结合我国强震复发的特点，分析了拉分盆地内部的滑动速率分布，以确定各段落的等效长度和倾向宽度，从而建立适合我国大陆走滑断裂的面波震级与断裂发震面积的关系式；进而运用地震矩方法，考虑断层之间的相互作用，结合专家意见建立了该段的矩平衡断裂破裂模型；最后，给出了鲜水河断裂带北西段各破裂源特征化地震的复发间隔、震级大小和不确定性，以及他与中小地震的联合震级分布. 结果表明，鲜水河断裂带北西段较易发生单段破裂，复发间隔在100～150年左右.