多时滞系统的不稳定性

利用比较原理结合向量Lyapunov函数研究一类多滞后线性时变系统的不稳定性,并在此基础上进一步研究一类多滞后非线性系统及多滞后区间系数系统的不稳定性,给出相关定理,丰富已有文献的相应结果。     

Nonhomogeneous Poisson model for volcanic eruptions

A simple Poisson process is more specifically known as a homogeneous Poisson process since the rate was assumed independent of time t. The homogeneous Poisson model generally gives a good fit to many volcanoes for forecasting volcanic eruptions. If eruptions occur according to a homogeneous Poisson process, the repose times between consecutive eruptions are independent exponential variables with mean=1/. The exponential distribution is applicable when the eruptions occur at random and are not due to aging, etc. It is interesting to note that a general population of volcanoes can be related to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with intensity factor(t). In this paper, specifically, we consider a more general Weibull distribution, WEI (, ), for volcanism. A Weibull process is appropriate for three types of volcanoes: increasing-eruption-rate (>1), decreasing-eruption-rate (<1), and constant-eruption-rate (=1). Statistical methods (parameter estimation, hypothesis testing, and prediction intervals) are provided to analyze the following five volcanoes: Also, Etna, Kilauea, St. Helens, and Yake-Dake. We conclude that the generalized model can be considered a goodness-of-fit test for a simple exponential model (a homogeneous Poisson model), and is preferable for practical use for some nonhomogeneous Poisson volcanoes with monotonic eruptive rates.     

Conceptualizing leakage and storage contributions from long open interval wells in regional deep basin flow models

Deep basin aquifers are increasingly used in water‐stressed areas, though their potential for sustainable development is inhibited by overlying aquitards and limited recharge rates. Long open interval wells (LOIWs)—wells uncased through multiple hydrostratigraphic units—are present in many confined aquifer systems and can be an important mechanism for deep basin aquifers to receive flow across aquitards. LOIWs are a major control on flow in the deep Cambrian–Ordovician sandstone aquifers of the upper Midwest, USA, providing a source of artificial leakage from shallow bedrock aquifers and equilibrating head within the sandstone aquifers despite differential pumpage. Conceptualizing and quantifying this anthropogenic flow has long been a challenge for groundwater flow modellers, particularly on a regional scale. Synoptic measurements of active production wells and well completion data for northeast Illinois form the basis for a transient, head‐specified MODFLOW model that determines mass balance contributions to the region and estimates LOIW leakage to the aquifers. Using this insight, transient LOIW leakage was simulated using transiently changing K_V zones in a traditional, Q‐specified MODFLOW‐USG model, a novel approach that allows the K_V in a cell containing a LOIW to change transiently by use of the time‐variant materials (TVM) package. With this modification, we achieved a consistent calibration through time, averaging 19.9 m root mean squared error. This model indicates that artificial leakage via LOIWs contributed a minimum of 10–13% of total flow to the sandstone aquifers through the entire history of pumping, up to 50% of flow around 1930. Removal from storage exceeds 40% of flow during peak withdrawals, much of this flow sourced from units other than the primary sandstone aquifers via LOIWs. As such, understanding the timing and magnitude of LOIW leakage is essential for predicting future water availability in deep basin aquifers.     

渤海海域多期伸展型交汇断层封闭性评价方法

渤海海域新生代经历了复杂的多期伸展运动,导致交汇型断裂系统异常发育。交汇型断层控制的断块圈闭已经被证明是重要的油气聚集区,但是大量的勘探实践表明交汇断层的油气渗漏程度是成藏差异性的主要原因。综合利用钻井资料、三维地震资料和构造物理模拟技术对交汇断层的封闭性进行研究,结果显示：（1）交汇断层发育演化程度控制了交汇点渗漏强度;（2）油气充注—渗漏相对时间控制了交汇断层的有效封闭时间;（3）早期先存断裂的斜向拉伸作用导致的不同走向断层的应力差异影响断层封闭能力。综合利用上述三个影响因素对渤海油田交汇型断层实钻构造的封闭性进行了模糊综合评价,发现封闭值的大小与实钻圈闭的油柱高度具有良好的正相关关系,证实了该评价方法在多期伸展型交汇断层封闭性评价中的有效性。     

青藏高原东缘高位崩滑灾害多动力多期次演化特征

青藏高原东缘是全球重要的活动构造区,高原峡谷区斜坡陡峻,高位崩滑灾害多发。采用遥感解译、地面调查、钻孔勘探及测年分析等方法,研究了西藏洛隆察达沟和易贡扎木弄沟两处高位崩滑堆积体的多动力多期次演化特征。研究结果表明：(1)沿陡峻沟道发生的高位崩滑灾害多为复合成因,兼具内动力和外动力作用交替促发特征;(2)洛隆察达沟晚更新世以来的堆积物形成序列可分为4期,分别经历了以冰川作用为主的冰碛物堆积、古地震引发的高位崩滑-碎屑流堆积、气候变暖背景下的冰-岩崩滑堆积及近代重力崩滑堆积;(3)易贡扎木弄沟在过去5500年中,先后发生了8次以上较大规模崩滑堆积,测年结果显示了巨型崩滑事件存在百年数量级的复发周期,由于不同期次巨型崩滑体的成因不同,复发周期可能存在长、中、短的差异;(4)近年来受全球气候变化影响,冰-岩崩滑灾害频现,可能成为高原峡谷区高位远程地质灾害研究的焦点。本文关于高位崩滑灾害多期次演化过程的认识对于高原峡谷区重大地质灾害防灾减灾具有一定启示意义。     

多失效模式下基于区间非概率的岩质隧道稳定可靠度分析

对于岩质隧道工程的稳定可靠度分析,一方面由于岩体参数的统计数据获取困难使得概率可靠度方法难以适用,另一方面其工程稳定与多种失效模式密切相关,须考虑隧道结构体系的可靠度问题。首先,基于区间理论,通过区间变量形式表征不确定性参数;然后,针对岩质隧道工程中多种失效模式并存的情况,引入结构体系可靠度理念,建立基于区间非概率的岩质隧道结构体系可靠度指标计算及其稳定性评价方法;在此基础上,通过工程实例验证了该方法的合理性;最后,定义不确定性参数的波动幅度,进一步分析各失效模式中不同参数对相应可靠度指标以及结构体系可靠度指标的影响。分析结果表明,各失效模式相应的非概率可靠度指标均随区间变量范围的增大而降低,且同一参数在不同失效模式中表现出不同的影响;另外,不确定性参数的变化还将导致影响岩质隧道结构体系稳定的主要失效模式发生相应的变化。     

一种用户均衡分配不确定性的计算方法

为解决目前交通分配中存在的不确定性问题,基于Wardrop用户平衡原理,利用起讫点（OD,Origin Destination）估计方法和Beckman交通分配模型,建立了一种交通分配不确定性计算方法.该方法分别以不同置信水平下的OD估计结果的上下限为输入量,然后利用Frank-Wolf算法求解交通分配模型,得到不同置信水平下的路段流量区间,以此量化交通分配问题中的不确定性.以南京市区域路网为研究对象进行案例分析,并采用宽度流量比R和无效覆盖率（Kickoff Percentage,KP）对模型结果进行评价,结果表明该方法可以得到路段流量的置信区间,量化交通分配的不确定性.     

定点式横向声学多普勒流速剖面仪应用研究

介绍了应用定点式横向声学多普勒流速仪进行实时流量在线监测方面的比测率定研究工作。主要从设备选型、安装位置、代表流速计算、单元流速区间选择、关系率定、精度评定、测点流速分析等方面进行了分析研究。通过设备选型、安装位置、单元流速区间选择等多方面的比较分析,选择最佳方案,进行比测分析,率定出代表流速与断面平均流速的关系。重点对设备安装位置、单元流速区间的选择、流速横向分布等进行比较分析,对于其他测站的类似H-ADCP监测方案有一定的指导意义。     

AItBOC信号码跟踪性能研究

通过分析A1tBOC（15,10）信号的功率谱密度、自相关函数,得出该信号在码跟踪性能上的理论优势,并根据Betz码跟踪评估理论仿真分析了接收机前端带宽、相关器间隔、环路鉴别器类型、载噪比以及全频带和单边带两种接收方式对该信号码跟踪精度的影响,并且通过与BPSK（10）、BOC（15,10）和单边带AltBoc（15,10）信号对比,得出AltBOC（15,10）信号在码跟踪精度上的优势,为AltBOC接收机设计提供理论依据。     

检波器组合对高分辨率地震勘探的影响

基于检波器组合各点为平面简谐波同相叠加的假设,地震勘探野外施工多将检波器组合作为压制噪音提高原始资料信噪比的一种主要手段,但实际野外地震地质因素难以满足假设条件,导致由多个检波器组合叠加的地震信号存在一定程度的畸变,进而影响到信号的振幅和频率。通过对组合基距及组内距的计算,论证了检波器组合对信号频率及振幅的影响程度。实际资料分析证明,检波器组合在噪音压制的同时也会损伤到有效信号,尤其高频信息成份;过大的检波器组合基距,不仅会降低原始资料信噪比,甚至还会降低原始资料频率。据此提出在高信噪比地区,采集地震数据宜采用较小检波器组合基距,以提高原始资料的分辨率。