2015年5月大气环流和天气分析

对2015年3—5月T639、ECMWF（文中简称EC）及日本数值模式中期预报产品进行了检验和对比。结果表明：三个模式对亚洲中高纬地区大尺度环流和850 hPa温度的演变和调整均具有较好的预报性能,EC模式对西风指数、850 hPa温度转折过程和变化幅度的预报略优于其他两个模式。对2015年3月31日至4月1日北方地区强沙尘暴天气过程的主要影响天气系统,三个模式预报能力相当,121 h时效都较好地预报出了地面冷高压,但强度和范围与实况有一定偏差。     

世界各国日像仪主要性能比较

本文是世界各国日像仪的天线阵性能汇集,包括日、俄、法、中、美等专用日像仪及美国、印度、巴西等兼作日像仪的天线阵,列出了几个典型天线阵列排列及接收系统。附录中列出了等口径及不等口径天线阵列的灵敏度及动态范围计算公式,同时列出了视场、角分辨率等公式。便于读者自行分析,计算,比较各天线阵列性能。     

Some things old, some things new: The spatial representations and politics of change of the peak oil relocalisation movement

Despite continued uncertainty about the physical realities and political, economic and social implications of peak oil, combined concerns about oil scarcity, climate change and globalisation has spawned an energetic relocalisation movement dedicated to achieving a comprehensive reduction in oil dependency through community-scale initiatives. This paper uses a discourse approach to examine the emergence, geographical spread and practices of the Transition Network, a UK-originated relocalisation movement now involving 186 local initiatives in the UK and other countries. We trace the movement’s drawing upon, and innovation from, discourses and techniques used by other grassroots environmental movements to promote a spatial representation of peak oil as an inevitable and geographically undiscriminating problem, and its use of addiction metaphors and participatory techniques to promote personal and community-scale energy descent initiatives as a viable and necessary alternative to globalisation. We also analyse the spatial representations and techniques used in the Network’s “rhizomic” spread across multiple localities around the world and embedding in communities where relocalisation initiatives are established. We conclude by examining the future challenges these spatial constructions of peak oil pose for the relocalisation movement.     

珠江三角洲年际潮差长期变化趋势

对20世纪50年代以来珠江三角洲网河内17个主要控制水文站的年际潮差变化趋势进行了显著性检验和突变点分析.通过Trend Free Pre-Whitening方法削除了水文时间序列中的自相关成分,利用非参数的Mann-Kendall检验研究了珠江三角洲年均潮差的变化趋势,指出潮差在珠江三角洲的变化趋势存在着空间变异性.在网河内的中、上游河段,潮差呈现明显的增大趋势,且越往上游,潮差的增大趋势越为显著;而在下游的口门区,由于受到围垦等人类活动影响,大部分站点的潮差表现为显著的下降趋势.Pettitt检验的结果表明,珠江三角洲潮差发生突变的时间段主要在20世纪80年代,这基本与河网内大规模的无序采沙开始的时间是同步的,表明挖沙是引起珠江三角洲内潮差变异的主导因素.潮差显著增大的趋势表明航道网内潮流动力明显增强,这亦是近年来珠江三角洲咸潮频发的机理原因之一.     

基于遥感技术的龙门山前山带烃类微渗漏信息提取

通过对龙门山前山带含油区与非含油区的岩石、土壤、植被等进行测试,认为烃类微渗漏会造成地表热异常、红层褪色、低价铁富集以及粘土矿化等现象,并对研究区的粘土矿物、Fe3+、Fe2+与烃类的波普曲线特征进行了分析对比。以ETM卫星图像为主要信息源,选择了TM2/TM3、TM3/TM4和TM5/TM7进行比值处理,从光谱数据中直接提取出碳酸盐化、粘土矿化、红层褪色等油气蚀变信息,并在对研究区遥感地质解译的基础上,指出烃渗漏信息异常晕主要沿断裂带分布,特别在不同走向断裂的交汇区域分布面积和强度较大,而在已知油气圈闭区域,信息晕主要呈碎片状或斑点状零散分布,且以低值异常为主。根据烃渗漏异常的分布特征,提取出石板滩、中坝、孝泉、聚源、鸭子河以及邛崃等遥感信息异常区块。     

1981—2011年阿里河地区气温极差变化浅析

利用1981—2011年阿里河镇的平均气温及逐日最高、最低气温资料,详细分析了年平均气温、年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温以及年平均气温极差的变化规律和特点。结果表明:阿里河地区的年平均气温呈明显上升趋势;年极端最高、最低气温都呈上升趋势;年平均气温极差值逐渐增大。     

���͹���������ǵ�����

?????????????????????????????????????????????μ?????????????????????????????????????????????????0.05 mm????????0.02 mm?????????????????????????????????÷???????     

基于T213集合预报的延伸期产品释用方法及初步试验

基于T213集合预报系统2008年1月中国及附近区域500 hPa高度和850 hPa温度的1~15 d预报资料,构建延伸期产品释用方法,通过对逐日11~15 d预报资料做集合平均和后向衰减权重系数滑动平均,进而得到延伸期(11~15 d)候平均和候距平预报,并对预报效果进行检验,结果表明:对11~15 d预报场做集合平均和后向衰减权重系数滑动平均均能降低预报误差,改善整体预报效果。由此得到的500 hPa高度场和850 hPa温度场11~1 5 d候平均预报误差与逐日控制预报第5d的水平相当,候距平相关系数均接近0.6,整体而言效果较好,具备一定的应用价值。500 hPa高度场和850 hPa温度场11~15 d候距平预报在中国大陆地区位相准确率均较高,东南沿海和东北部分地区稍差,且850 hPa温度场的位相准确率整体高于500 hPa高度场。候距平预报对延伸期(11~15 d)的大范围持续性异常距平具有较强的捕捉能力,对异常距平出现的范围和分布、强距平中心的位置的预报均较好,但强度整体偏弱。     

The impact of anoxia on pelagic macrofauna during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (Early Jurassic)

Extreme environmental change during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event had widespread impacts on marine biota. This study provides new evidence, from the Yorkshire coast sections, UK, that the event was associated with periods of elevated fish and ammonite mortality. Using a synthesis of pelagic macrofaunal changes, benthic macrofaunal data and geochemical proxies we show that there are stratigraphical correlations between: (1) pelagic macrofaunal ranges and abundance, (2) benthic macrofaunal abundance, and (3) geochemical proxies that indicate deoxygenation. We identify eight stratigraphical intervals of differing character. Results suggest two major phases of relatively persistent deoxygenation with photic zone euxinia. The cyclostratigraphic timescale indicates that each phase lasted at least tens of thousands of years. Belemnite migration during the event probably resulted from increased seawater temperatures and low food supply similar to that observed for many marine taxa, including squid, within the present-day oceans.