Land-cover impacts on streamflow: a change-detection modelling approach that incorporates parameter uncertainty

Abstract

The effect of land-use or land-cover change on stream runoff dynamics is not fully understood. In many parts of the world, forest management is the major land-cover change agent. While the paired catchment approach has been the primary methodology used to quantify such effects, it is only possible for small headwater catchments where there is uniformity in precipitation inputs and catchment characteristics between the treatment and control catchments. This paper presents a model-based change-detection approach that includes model and parameter uncertainty as an alternative to the traditional paired-catchment method for larger catchments. We use the HBV model and data from the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon, USA, to develop and test the approach on two small (<1 km²) headwater catchments (a 100% clear-cut and a control) and then apply the technique to the larger 62 km² Lookout catchment. Three different approaches are used to detect changes in stream peak flows using: (a) calibration for a period before (or after) change and simulation of runoff that would have been observed without land-cover changes (reconstruction of runoff series); (b) comparison of calibrated parameter values for periods before and after a land-cover change; and (c) comparison of runoff predicted with parameter sets calibrated for periods before and after a land-cover change. Our proof-of-concept change detection modelling showed that peak flows increased in the clear-cut headwater catchment, relative to the headwater control catchment, and several parameter values in the model changed after the clear-cutting. Some minor changes were also detected in the control, illustrating the problem of false detections. For the larger Lookout catchment, moderately increased peak flows were detected. Monte Carlo techniques used to quantify parameter uncertainty and compute confidence intervals in model results and parameter ranges showed rather wide distributions of model simulations. While this makes change detection more difficult, it also demonstrated the need to explicitly consider parameter uncertainty in the modelling approach to obtain reliable results.

Citation Seibert, J. & McDonnell, J. J. (2010) Land-cover impacts on streamflow: a change-detection modelling approach that incorporates parameter uncertainty. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(3), 316–332.     

Traditional irrigation techniques in MENA with a focus on Tunisia

ABSTRACT

Due to their efficiency, revitalized traditional techniques for irrigation management of scarce water resources have been suggested as a way to at least partially cope with the present water crises in the Middle East. A better irrigation management includes re-using treated wastewater in agriculture. Treated wastewater should also be used in industrial processes, thus contributing to a more efficient overall water management. However, the most important change leading to better water management is improving water efficiency in agricultural irrigation. Traditional water management techniques have an important role in many Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. Besides bringing more water to a thirsty population, they can also contribute to the societal awareness, and recognition of the great diversity of cultural and social values water has to human civilization.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR P. Hubert     

Bivalve shellfish harvesting and consumption in New Zealand, 2011: data for exposure assessment

We provide an overview of bivalve molluscan shellfish (BMS) availability to New Zealanders. Data on commercial production (aquaculture) and harvesting, non-commercial (recreational and customary) harvesting and international trading (imports, exports) of BMS were assembled. These data were transformed to estimate the total weight (greenweight and meatweight) of each BMS species, and all BMS species, available to New Zealand domestic consumers in 2011. An estimated 68,000 tonnes greenweight, or 13,000 tonnes meatweight, of BMS were available. Mussels (mostly commercially-produced Perna canaliculus) accounted for 96% of the total available BMS by meatweight. Non-commercially harvested BMS were 1% of the total available BMS. BMS availability was estimated as 8 g/person/day for the total New Zealand population and 407 g/person/day for shellfish consumers. These estimates were comparable to published national consumption data. The results can be used as inputs to exposure assessment. Food availability is a useful estimate where consumption data are limited.     

Marine reserve effects on population density and size structure of commonly and rarely exploited limpets in South Africa

Marine reserves are commonly used to conserve living resources, but their effectiveness where policing is difficult is unclear. We compared monthly population density and size structure data collected over 20 months for two rarely and two commonly exploited intertidal limpets inside and outside reserves in South Africa. Densities were greater inside reserves, but significantly so in very few months. Unexpectedly, no significant reserve effect was detected for the territorial Scutellastra longicosta, shown by surveys to be favoured by harvesters. Reserve effects for the rarely exploited S. granularis probably result from indirect effects of higher barnacle cover in reserves where trampling is reduced, while interviews indicated that Cellana capensis is not targeted but large individuals are sometimes misidentified and hence are harvested outside the reserve. There were few reserve effects on mean or mean maximum size. The results indicate a gradient of exploitation among species and sites. One non-reserve site was more heavily exploited than the other, while one reserve experienced more poaching than the other. The effectiveness of marine reserves thus differed between reserves and among species. Exploited limpets were generally larger and at higher densities in reserves, but these effects were rarely statistically significant, indicating that reserve effects are weak compared to natural variability, probably reflecting ineffective policing.     

Chemistry of Precipitation Events and Inter-Relationship with Ambient Aerosols over a Semi-Arid Region in Western India

The precipitation events (n = 91), collected for 3 years (2000–2002) during the period of SW-monsoon (Jun–Aug) from an urban site (Ahmedabad, 23.0°N, 72.6°E) of a semi-arid region in western India, are found to exhibit characteristic differences in terms of their solute contents. The low solute (<700 μeq L⁻¹) events are either marked by heavy precipitation amount or successive events collected during an extended rain spell; whereas light precipitation events occurring after antecedent dry period are characterized by high solutes (>700 μeq L⁻¹). The ionic composition of low solute events show large variability due to varying contribution of anthropogenic species (: 1%–74%; : 1%–25%; and : 8%–68%) to the respective ion balance. In high solute events, ionic abundances are dominated by mineral dust (Ca²⁺ and ) and sea-salts (Na⁺ and Cl⁻). These differences are also reflected in the pH of low solute events (range: 5.2–7.4, VWM: 6.4) and high solute events (range: 6.6–8.2, VWM: 7.3). The comparison of Ca²⁺/Na⁺ and nss- ratios (on equivalent basis) in rain and aerosols suggests that the ionic composition of high solute events is influenced by below-cloud scavenging; whereas evidence for in-cloud scavenging is significantly reflected in low solute events. The annual wet-deposition fluxes of and are 330 and 480 mg m⁻² y⁻¹, respectively, in contrast to their corresponding dry-deposition fluxes (14 and 160 mg m⁻² y⁻¹); whereas wet and dry removal of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ and are comparable.     

砂田集雨补灌对西瓜产量和土壤水分的影响

砂田在干旱半干旱地区是传统保水保墒的耕作方式,至今已有300多年的历史。对传统的砂田配合现代集雨滴灌技术种植西瓜,供试品种是西农8号,试验处理为集雨滴灌砂田(DSF),传统砂田(CSF),不覆砂的传统土田(CEF)。通过甘肃景泰十里砂河村的田间试验表明,产量比传统砂田提高近3倍。产量提高最主要的因素是在西瓜水分受到胁迫的几个关键需水期,及时实施了集雨补灌技术。从田间水分变化分析了集雨补灌砂田的增产机理。     

星云湖南岸主要入湖河流氮入湖污染特征及南岸调蓄系统削减效果研究

为明确星云湖主要入湖河流向湖体的氮素营养盐输送特征,研究以星云湖南岸4条主要入湖河流单元雨季与旱季不同形态氮素的监测数据为基础,系统研究了星云湖南岸主要入湖河流单元不同形态氮的入湖浓度时空变化及不同形态氮对入湖TN的贡献,并探讨了已建南岸带状调蓄系统入湖污染削减效果。结果表明:①星云湖南岸主要入湖河流单元TN浓度为1.1～18.69 mg/L,DTN浓度为1.88～8.61 mg/L,且农田径流污染导致雨季TN浓度均高于旱季。②南岸大多数入湖河流单元样点中氮素以NO_3-N为主,占TN 39.49%;PN和NH3-N含量相近,分别占TN的28.50%与24.75%;DON含量相对较少,占TN的9.97%。雨季NH3-N、NO_3-N及PN对入湖TN的贡献显著增加。③星云湖南岸四条入湖河流在经过调蓄系统调蓄后,TN浓度均呈现下降趋势,TN平均削减率达到32.35%。不同形态氮素削减效果以NO_3-N最佳,平均削减率达到58.22%;NH_3-N及PN削减效果相对不显著。④星云湖南岸带状调蓄系统应考虑不同形态氮污染季节性差异,并进一步与湖滨湿地串联,提升调蓄系统对NH_3-N与PN的削减效果。     

再论北京西山山地壶穴的形态特征与成因机制

北京西山"京西古道"的"驮兽蹄窝",近些年来因为进山旅游的人越来越多而名声大噪,常见诸报刊、电视、网络等媒体。至于其真正成因,却鲜有学者深究。通过对出现"驮兽蹄窝"的北京西山牛角岭、石佛岭和峰口庵三个垭口详细的野外观察和实地测量,认为基岩路面上那些圆形、椭圆形或多边形凹坑,是历史上无数次暴雨流挟带砂砾冲刷与磨蚀基岩坡面上原先的构造和岩性薄弱部位而逐渐形成的山地壶穴（hillside potholes）,属于正常的雨流侵蚀现象（rain-induced erosion）。壶穴的分布特征（在山脊垭口两侧,沿基岩路面上沟槽成串分布）、几何形态的非对称性、内壁的水平擦痕、底部的中央岛现象,以及长、短轴长度、长短轴比（a/b）、宽深比（D/h）和长轴倾向的统计结果与D-h相关性等数据,皆证明"驮兽蹄窝"的成因是不可能的。