模糊综合评判法在新宾县地质灾害易发程度分区评价中的应用

结合辽宁省新宾县地质灾害发育情况,在充分分析影响该地区地质灾害发生发展的自然因素和人为因素基础上,应用模糊综合评判方法,通过网格单元剖分,对泥石流、崩塌、滑坡、地面塌陷、地裂缝5种地质灾害进行易发程度划分与评价.结合Visual BASIC软件编程对各单元区评定等级,对其数字化结果进行叠加分析,最后应用Sufer 7.0软件生成等值线进行了新宾县地质灾害易发区的划分并作出评价.     

空间扰动引力的谱分析

基于重力场的频谱理论，给出了扰动引力在全球平均意义下的功率谱表达式，揭示了扰动引力的传播特性。通过数值试验，给出了扰动引力随高度变化规律，并分析了不同高度上，扰动引力恢复重力场的最高阶数及相应分辨率。从理论上分析了航空重力测量探测重力场中高频信息的能力，对制定飞行方案有一定参考价值。     

STUDY ON SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION OF URBAN LAND PRICE DISTRIBUTION IN CHANGZHOU CITY OF JIANGSU PROVINCE

1INTRODUCTION The level and periodic changes of land price are interest- ing subjects for the governors, investors, researchers and grass-roots. Currently, the higher land price in China has become the focus among the people, from central go- vernment tocommon citizens,especially in theChang- jiang (Yangtze) River Delta area around Shanghai City. So that studyingthisproblem have both an academic and practicalmeaning. One characteristic ofland is fixed location (the others are high cost…     

1961 - 2017年中国东北地区降雪时空演变特征分析

利用东北地区162个气象台站逐日降水量和天气现象数据, 采用统计分析方法, 对近57年（1961 - 2017年）降雪的气候特征和时空演变规律进行了分析。结果表明： 降雪量和降雪日数最多出现在12月, 小雪和中雪最多出现在11月或12月, 大雪和暴雪在冬末春初出现概率最高。降雪分布为山地大于平原, 平原地区自北向南、 自东向西减少, 降雪高值区主要位于大兴安岭北部、 小兴安岭和长白山区, 降雪强度中心位于长白山区和辽宁中部平原地区。年、 秋季、 冬季、 春季降雪量占同期降水量比例分别为4.7%、 7.0%、 84.4%和7.6%; 辽宁省西部山区和南部大连地区日最大降雪量占年总降雪量比例最高, 最长连续降雪日数在2 d以下, 降雪较高纬度地区更为集中。近57年降雪量和降雪强度分别以1.93 mm?（10a）^-1和0.11 mm?d^-1?（10a）^-1的速率显著增加, 降雪日数以2.08 d?（10a）^-1速率显著减少; 降雪量增加主要表现为各等级降雪量的增加, 降雪日数减少主要是微量和小雪日数的减少, 降雪强度增加主要为大雪和暴雪降雪强度的增加。年、 秋季和冬季降雪量占同期降水量比例平均每10年增加0.36%、 0.48%和0.45%, 春季以0.11%?（10a）^-1的速率减少。中雪、 大雪和暴雪对降雪贡献率均呈增加趋势, 小雪降雪量和微量降雪日数贡献率减少; 1987年降雪量和降雪日数突变后, 微量降雪日数和暴雪日数、 小雪降雪量贡献率改变显著。就区域平均而言, 2001 - 2017年的降雪量较1961 - 1980年增加了27.8%, 降雪日数减少了22.4%。     

基于多元整体最小二乘优化的多点灰色动态变形分析模型

提出一种多元整体最小二乘优化的多点灰色动态模型,并结合实例验证优化的MGM(1,n)模型的优越性。将优化的MGM(1,n)模型与一般的MGM(1,n)模型进行对比,分析两种模型的建模值和预测值。结果表明,优化的MGM(1,n)模型在建模数据多于4期的情况下建模精度更高,预测精度更准确,更符合实际情况。     

宁波市地下水位动态与地面沉降预测分析

为了准确预测分析宁波市地下水位动态与地面沉降的发展趋势,建立了宁波市第四纪松散沉积层孔隙地下水流三维数值模拟模型和地面沉降与地下水位多元线性回归模型,预测了2009年底到2020年底的逐月地下水位动态和逐年地面沉降量的变化特征.结果表明,从2013年起,除山区沟谷孔隙潜水地下水位降落漏斗逐渐扩大外,其余孔隙水的地下水流场基本趋于稳定,地下水位年际变化很小,年地面沉降量也逐渐变小,由2012年的5.62 mm/a逐渐下降到2020年的5.54 mm/a,由地下水位下降引起的地面沉降基本得到控制.     

Multifractal modeling and spatial statistics

In general, the multifractal model provides more information about measurements on spatial objects than a fractal model. It also results in mathematical equations for the covariance function and semivariogram in spatial statistics which are determined primarily by the second-order mass exponent. However, these equations can be approximated by power-law relations which are comparable directly to equations based on fractal modeling. The multifractal approach is used to describe the underlying spatial structure of De Wijs 's example of zinc values from a sphalerite-bearing quartz vein near Pulacayo, Bolivia. It is shown that these data are multifractal instead of fractal, and that the second-order mass exponent (=0.979±0.011 for the example) can be used in spatial statistical analysis.     

GIS Platform-based Multi-source Information System for Evaluation of Cu, W and Au Resources in the Northern Qilian, China

Based on the information of geology, geochemistry, geophysics and remote sensing, the GIS of multi-source information is used to evaluate Cu, W and Au mineral resources in Northern Qilian, China. As the GIS evaluation system works out in the thinking of geological prospecting, its functions include file management, graph edition, database maintenance, information inquiry and comprehensive spatial analysis as well as prospecting target prognosis. Accordingly, the GIS evaluation system can be used directly and conveniently for inquiry and analysis of visual graphs or images.     

A new approach of selecting real input ground motions for seismic design: The most unfavourable real seismic design ground motions

This paper presents a new way of selecting real input ground motions for seismic design and analysis of structures based on a comprehensive method for estimating the damage potential of ground motions, which takes into consideration of various ground motion parameters and structural seismic damage criteria in terms of strength, deformation, hysteretic energy and dual damage of Park & Ang damage index. The proposed comprehensive method fully involves the effects of the intensity, frequency content and duration of ground motions and the dynamic characteristics of structures. Then, the concept of the most unfavourable real seismic design ground motion is introduced. Based on the concept, the most unfavourable real seismic design ground motions for rock, stiff soil, medium soil and soft soil site conditions are selected in terms of three typical period ranges of structures. The selected real strong motion records are suitable for seismic analysis of important structures whose failure or collapse will be avoided at a higher level of confidence during the strong earthquake, as they can cause the greatest damage to structures and thereby result in the highest damage potential from an extended real ground motion database for a given site. In addition, this paper also presents the real input design ground motions with medium damage potential, which can be used for the seismic analysis of structures located at the area with low and moderate seismicity. The most unfavourable real seismic design ground motions are verified by analysing the seismic response of structures. It is concluded that the most unfavourable real seismic design ground motion approach can select the real ground motions that can result in the highest damage potential for a given structure and site condition, and the real ground motions can be mainly used for structures whose failure or collapse will be avoided at a higher level of confidence during the strong earthquake. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inter- and intra-annual trend analysis of water level and flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Ganjiang River,China

ABSTRACT

The Ganjiang River is the largest tributary of Poyang Lake in China, and its hydrological regime variation greatly affects the utilization of regional water resources and the ecological environment of the lake. In this study, a novel trend analysis method, the Moving Average over Shifting Horizon (MASH), was applied to investigate the inter- and intra-annual trends of flow and water level from 1976 to 2016 at the Xiajiang and the Waizhou hydrological stations in the Ganjiang River. The Significant Change Rate Method (SCRM) was proposed to determine the MASH averaging parameters. The trend analysis results show a statistically significant decrease in water level series throughout the year and the relationship of flow and water level have changed greatly at the Waizhou station. The sediment load reduction, large-scale sand mining and water level decrease of Poyang Lake are identified as the main causes for the water level decrease.