基于高分影像光谱特征快速估算综合雨量径流系数的方法探索——以嘉兴海绵城市示范区为例

依据综合雨量径流系数计算公式,提出了一种基于高分影像光谱特征的综合雨量径流系数快速估算方法。结合面向对象的影像分割分类技术及阴影区再分类方法,获取了试验区覆被分类信息,从而达到了快速估算综合雨量径流系数的目的,并以嘉兴海绵城市示范区为例,对比嘉兴市地理国情普查成果,验证本文方法的可行性。     

基于GPS-PWV的不同云系降水个例的综合分析

利用成都地基GPS观测网的观测数据,结合自动气象站资料计算出GPS遥感的大气可降水量(GPS-PWV)。按照降水性质,选取对流云降水和层状云降水个例,分析不同类型降水过程中GPS-PWV的变化特征。结果表明,对流云降水和层状云降水一般均发生在GPS-PWV的高值阶段。     

卫星遥感中风场对降雨飘移距离的影响及误差校正

首先利用海表面风速与高度的对数关系、风向与高度的关系,推算出高空的风速、风向及相应风力的大小。在此基础上根据降雨的形成高度,假定在海表面10 m处风速为10 m/s的情况下,得到单位质量为1的雨水在风场影响下的飘移距离在3—100 km之间,可以判定这个偏移距离即为在风场影响下卫星观测降雨的误差。利用上述方法对10组TRMM卫星降雨产品数据进行纠正,将纠正前后的TRMM数据与GPCP数据进行对比。结果显示,经过纠正的TRMM数据与GPCP数据更为一致,整体精度提高了12%左右,验证了方法的正确性。     

URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING IN CALIFORNIA: AN EVALUATION

California's excellent road system has provided unmatched mobility for most of the state's residents. Recently, however, constraints on construction of high-capacity roads have threatened the future of unrestricted auto use. California's transportation planners have therefore shifted emphasis from expanding the transportation system to increasing its efficiency. No concomitant change has occurred, however, in state legislation or resource allocation. As a result, rather than being an integrated process, transportation planning and implementation are fragmented. This paper examines the origins and implications of this situation and possible remedies for it.     

Satellite-derived rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning in Bogowonto Catchment,Central Java,Indonesia

Satellite rainfall products for landslide early warning prediction have been spotlighted by several researchers, in the last couple of decades. This study investigates the use of TRMM and ERA-Interim data, for the determination of rainfall thresholds and the prediction of precipitation, respectively, to be used for landslide early warning purposes at the Bogowonto catchment, Central Java, Indonesia. A landslide inventory of 218 landslides for the period of 2003–2016 was compiled, and rainfall data were retrieved for the landslide locations, as given by 6 ground stations, TRMM, and ERA-Interim data. First, rainfall data from the three different sources was compared in terms of correlation and extreme precipitation indices. Second, a procedure for the calculation of rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence was followed consisting of four steps: i) the TRMM-based rainfall data was reconstructed for selected dates and locations characterized by landslide occurrence and non-occurrence; ii) the antecedent daily rainfall was calculated for 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days for the selected dates and locations; iii) two-parameter daily rainfall-antecedent rainfall thresholds were calculated for the aforementioned dates; after analysis of the curves the optimum number of antecedent rainfall days was selected; and (iv) empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence were determined. The procedure was repeated for the entire landslide dataset, differentiating between forested and built-up areas, and between landslide occurrence in four temporal periods, in relation to the monsoon. The results indicated that TRMM performs well for the detection of very heavy precipitation and can be used to indicate the extreme rainfall events that trigger landslides. On the contrary, as ERA-Interim failed to detect those events, its applicability for LEWS remains limited. The 15-day antecedent rainfall was indicated to mostly affect the landslide occurrence in the area. The rainfall thresholds vary for forested and built-up areas, as well as for the beginning, middle and end of the rainy season.     

某岩溶区公路岩土滑坡形成机理与治理

灰岩区复杂的岩体和土体条件引发频繁的滑坡,严重影响了岩溶区高速公路的建设和运营。以某高速工程典型的岩土双区滑坡为例,进行岩溶区滑坡机理研究,结果表明,岩土体及地形是内因,路堑开挖是外因,强降雨是诱因,滑坡机制概括为开挖应力释放—降雨推移（Ⅰ区土体）—牵引（Ⅱ区岩体）。通过极限平衡法的滑坡稳定性分析,卸载后滑坡达到了基本稳定,但是在降雨工况下,滑坡依然处于不稳定状态。针对这种滑坡特殊成因,采用以抗滑桩为主的综合分区治理滑坡方案,处治效果良好,具有降低造价,加快施工进度等优势。     

沙澧河流域两场大暴雨过程的对比分析

利用常规观测资料、自动站资料和NCEP1°×1°再分析资料对2007年7月5日和14日沙澧河流域两场大暴雨过程进行了诊断对比分析.结果表明:不同影响系统下产生的大暴雨过程其动力机制有所差异.垂直螺旋度计算结果显示:两次过程700hPa等压面上正垂直螺旋度中心的移向和强度变化与降水落区及趋势变化有很好的对应关系,暴雨区出现在正垂直螺旋度中心移动的前方,对流域大暴雨的落区有一定的指示意义.5日呈现中低层正、高层负的垂直螺旋度配置,动力条件更有利于大暴雨的发生.湿位涡演变分析发现,5日中低层既存在对流不稳定,又存在对称不稳定,有利于垂直对流和倾斜对流发生,造成流域大暴雨.14日中低层大气处于对流稳定状态,但边界层和中层存在对流不稳定,同时中层还存在较强的对称不稳定,垂直涡度得到较大增长,导致上升运动的加强和水汽的垂直输送,有利于降水增幅.     

青藏高原前期冬春季地面热源与我国夏季降水关系的初步分析

首先对青藏高原地表热通量再分析资料与自动气象站(AWS)实测资料进行对比, 结果表明: 相对于美国国家环境预报中心和国家大气中心20世纪90年代研制的NCEP/NCAR(Kalnay 等1996)和NCEP/DOE (Kanamitsu 等2002) 再分析资料, ECMWF(Uppala 等2004)资料在高原地区的地表热通量具有较好的代表性。进一步利用奇异值分解(SVD)方法分析了ECMWF资料反映的高原地面热源与我国夏季降水的关系, 发现前期青藏高原主体的冬季地面热源与长江中下游地区夏季降水量呈负相关, 与华北和东南沿海地区的夏季降水量呈正相关。而长江中下游地区夏季降水量还与春季高原南部的地面热源存在负相关、与高原北部的地面热源存在正相关。高原冬、春季地面热源场的变化是影响我国夏季降水的重要因子。     

Spatial rainfall estimation by linear and non-linear co-kriging of radar-rainfall and raingage data

The feasibility of linear and nonlinear geostatistical estimation techniques for optimal merging of rainfall data from raingage and radar observations is investigated in this study by use of controlled numerical experiments. Synthetic radar and raingage data are generated with their hypothetical error structures that explicitly account for sampling characteristics of the two sensors. Numerically simulated rainfall fields considered to be ground-truth fields on 4×4 km grids are used in the generation of radar and raingage observations. Ground-truth rainfall fields consist of generated rainfall fields with various climatic characteristics that preserve the space-time covariance function of rainfall events in extratropical cyclonic storms. Optimal mean areal precipitation estimates are obtained based on the minimum variance, unbiased property of kriging techniques under the second order homogeneity assumption of rainfall fields. The evaluation of estimated rainfall fields is done based on the refinement of spatial predictability over what would be provided from each sensor individually. Attention is mainly given to removal of measurement error and bias that are synthetically introduced to radar measurements. The influence of raingage network density on estimated rainfall fields is also examined.     

四川雅安地质灾害时空预警试验区初步研究

借鉴美国旧金山湾和香港地区的经验,提出了地质灾害监测预警试验区建设和研究思路。经过近两年的工作,初步建成了四川雅安地质灾害监测预警试验区。取得的阶段性成果主要有:(1)根据现场考察和试验区地质灾害数据库,统计研究了降雨型滑坡的几何特征;(2)建成了由20台遥测雨量计构成的降雨观测网,取得了2002年4月～2003年8月的降雨观测数据;(3)结合历史降雨资料分析,初步研究了雅安试验区的年、日、小时和十分钟最大降雨特征;(4)研制了斜坡岩土体含水量野外监测仪,取得了桑树坡试验点2003年4月～8月的实时监测数据;(5)自上而下分4层研究了斜坡岩土层含水量变化,发现了岩土层含水量变化对降雨过程的滞后性;(6)基于区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法(AMFP),利用地质灾害因子分析结果,分别计算了雅安试验区地质灾害"发育度"和"潜势度";(7)利用2003年8月23～25日的过程降雨观测资料,对雅安试验区在该降雨过程中发生的地质灾害事件进行了时空预警反演模拟研究,计算出的地质灾害"危险度"分布比较符合实际,"危险度"可以作为预警指数使用。