国家级格点化定量降水预报系统

2020年7月18—19日,江淮地区出现一次特大暴雨过程,欧洲中期天气预报中心全球确定性预报模式（以下简称EC模式）、华东区域数值模式（以下简称华东模式）和国家气象中心Grapes高分辨区域模式（3 km分辨率,以下简称G3模式）预报的暴雨落区均明显偏北,且降水强度偏弱。通过对模式的风场及降水预报进行检验发现：模式天气形势预报的优劣,很多时候与模式的降水预报优劣是直接相关的,尤其是天气形势中的中低层风场,很容易受模式中降水潜热反馈过程的影响,导致错误的预报订正指引;比较而言,模式预报的高层流场,受潜热反馈过程影响较小,是值得在天气分析环节中加以重视的预报着眼点;此外,对于由中小尺度天气系统传播所致的大暴雨或特大暴雨,分辨率更高的区域模式预报结果可能具有更好的预报参考性,也是今后类似暴雨预报过程中应该重视的着眼点之一。

     

柴达木盆地北部风速对尘暴事件降尘的影响

通过系统监测柴达木盆地北部冷湖地区的月降尘通量以及尘暴事件降尘量,发现该地区月降尘通量变化在0.57×103～18.12×103 μg·cm–2·month–1之间,并且与月极大风速（Vextr）具有较好的正相关性（r2=0.60, n=23）;该区年内主要粉尘堆积时段为春季和初夏;尘暴事件发生期间的降尘量不仅与尘暴持续期间10 min平均风速具有良好的正相关关系（r2=0.60, n=16）,而且降尘量与10 min风速变化幅度有关:强劲稳定的风力条件在监测地点产生较少的降尘量,强劲且变率较大的风力条件产生较多的降尘量。监测结果显示,风速的变化对粉尘的释放、输送和沉降有重要的影响,有助于理解地质记录所揭示的冰期-间冰期不同的大气粉尘沉降速率。     

Sensitivity Analysis of the Super Heavy Rainfall Event in Henan on 20 July (2021) Using ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts

An unprecedented heavy rainfall event occurred in Henan Province, China, during the period of 1200 UTC 19-1200 UTC 20 July 2021 with a record of 522 mm accumulated rainfall. Zhengzhou, the capital city of Henan, received 201.9 mm of rainfall in just one hour on the day. In the present study, the sensitivity of this event to atmospheric variables is investigated using the ECMWF ensemble forecasts. The sensitivity analysis first indicates that a local YellowHuai River low vortex(YHV) in the southe...     

流域侵蚀产沙人类活动影响指数研究——以长江上游为例

流域产沙是土壤侵蚀的重要反映,受降雨等自然要素和人类活动的共同作用。采用退耦理论的思想和差分方法推导出流域侵蚀产沙人类活动影响指数的简易估算方法,并对长江上游的金沙江、乌江、嘉陵江、岷江分别计算人类活动总体贡献率。结果表明,各流域人类活动对侵蚀产沙变化的贡献率达72％～97％,总体上属于抑制侵蚀的正向活动。长江上游输沙量呈阶段梯级变化,根据流域侵蚀产沙人类活动影响指数的距平累积变化的突变特征将1955～2009年划分为5个阶段并分析了每个阶段人类活动的主要特点及其对侵蚀产沙的影响。其中,20世纪80年代中期以前河流输沙量较大,主要与“一五”、“大炼钢铁”、“三线建设”、农村改革前期不稳定因素等密切相关,而70年代河流输沙量较小是受当时大搞农田基本建设和采取“挑沙面土”、“边沟背沟”等传统水土保持措施的影响,80年代中期后河流输沙量明显减少,主要受社会经济稳定有序发展、水保工程的实施及大兴水库建设等影响。     

Small inflation sources producing seismic and infrasonic pulses during the 2000 eruptions of Miyake-jima, Japan

During the 2000 activity of Miyake-jima volcano, Japan, we detected long period seismic signals with initial pulse widths of 1-2 s, accompanied by infrasonic pulses with almost the same pulse widths. The seismic signals were observed from 13 July 2000, a day before the second summit eruption. The occurrences of the seismic signals were intermittent with a gradual increase in their magnitudes and numbers building toward a significant explosive eruption on 18 August. After the eruption, the seismic and infrasonic events ceased. The results of a waveform inversion show that the initial motions were excited by an isotropic inflation source beneath the south edge of the caldera at a depth of 1.4 km. On the other hand, the sources of the infrasonic pulses were located in the summit caldera area. The times at which the infrasonic pulses were emitted at the surface were delayed by about 3 s from the origin times of the seismic events. It is suggested that small isotropic inflations excited seismic waves in the crust and simultaneously caused acoustic waves that traveled in the conduit and produced infrasonic pulses at the crater bottom. Considering the observed time differences and gas temperatures emitted from the vent, the conduit should have been filled with vapor mixed with SO₂ gas and volcanic ash. The change of the time differences between the seismic and infrasonic signals suggests that the seismic source became shallower within half a day before the August 18 explosive eruption. We interpret the source process as a fragmentation process of magma in which gas bubbles burst and quickly released part of the pressure that had been sustained by the tensional strength of magma.     

热带气旋西行造成的远距离降雨特征分析

2018年7月27~28日凉山州地区出现了持续性的强降水天气过程,本文运用水平分辨率为1°×1°的NECP6小时再分析资料、新型监测资料及常规观测资料进行分析。发现此次过程不同于常规的降水过程,环流背景上受副高外围的东南气流和热带气旋形成的东风波倒槽共同作用形成的急流轴影响,为降水地提供充足的水汽和能量补充,从而形势上形成了热带气旋远距离降水,同时副热带高压的稳定维持也阻挡了高原上的低值系统快速东移,使得降水机制长时间停滞,对降水地造成影响。     

地球深部探测的先锋: 深地震反射方法的发展与应用

深地震反射剖面早已被国际上证实是一种地球深部探测的先锋技术,它利用比石油地震勘探更长的接收排列、更大的激发能量,探测上至地表,下达上地幔的精细结构和构造特征,现已被国内外越来越多地应用于大陆及海洋地壳与岩石圈上地幔探测上。深地震反射剖面技术在揭示地球深部动力学过程,论述大地构造演化,确定盆山耦合关系,推测成矿成藏条件,分析地震灾害等方面取得了丰硕成果。系统地梳理和概括了国内外陆地地区深地震反射剖面技术的研究现状以及典型应用案例。在此基础上,从深地震反射野外数据采集、数据资料处理、剖面地质解译以及多方法联合探测4个方面,对地震反射剖面技术未来发展方向进行了展望。研究认为：在野外采集方面,研发不同激发、接收组合类型的采集技术、提升深地震反射数据采集质量,减少环境破坏,降低经济成本;在数据处理中,继续探究提高深地震反射剖面的信噪比与分辨率,定量监控深地震反射数据处理过程中振幅保真度的相对变化;在资料解译时,将深入挖掘深地震反射剖面的叠前、叠后潜在信息,降低单纯依靠深地震反射振幅解译的非唯一性;在综合研究上,从多学科、多角度、多尺度、多方法上相互补充印证,降低剖面的多解性,提高成果的准确性和可靠度。

     

Analysis and modelling of rainfall fields at different resolutions in southern Italy

Abstract

The spatial and temporal variability of the scaling properties and correlation structure of a data set of rainfall time series, aggregated over different temporal resolutions, and observed in 70 raingauges across the Basilicata and Calabria regions of southern Italy, is investigated. Two types of random cascade model, namely canonical and microcanonical models, were used for each raingauge and selected season. For both models, different hypotheses concerning dependency of parameters on time scale and rainfall height can be adopted. In particular, a new approach is proposed which consists of several combinations of models with a different scale dependence of parameters for different temporal resolutions. The goal is to improve the modelling of the main features of rainfall time series, especially for cases where the variability of rainfall changes irregularly with temporal aggregation. The results obtained with the new methodology showed good agreement with the observed data, in particular, for the summer months. In fact, during this season, rainfall heights aggregated at fine temporal resolutions (from 5 to 20 min) are more similar (relative to the winter season) to the values cumulated on 1 or 3 h (due to convective phenomena) and, consequently, the process of rainfall breakdown is nearly stationary for a range of finer temporal resolutions.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Montanari     

青海木里地区天然气水合物三维地震探测

首次在中国祁连山冻土区青海木里地区实施了针对天然气水合物的三维地震探测。根据工区内冻土层厚度、地层岩性、水合物储集空间类型和赋存深度等特 点,设计了三维地震数据采集方案,制定了地震数据处理流程,获得了良好的三维地震探测结果。结果表明,工区内天然气水合物赋存层段地震响应特征与国外冻土区的天然气水合物具有明 显差异;冻土层厚度、岩性、水合物储集空间类型等因素,对该区地震资料振幅、频率、速度等影响显著;水合物层段的地震资料存在低频、中等杂乱振幅等明显的特点,这些特征为该区天然气水合物探测和识别提供了依据。     

NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF AN EXTREME RAINSTORM OVER THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION ON 7 MAY 2017 BASED ON WRF-ENKF

An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of the assimilation of surface observation data in an extreme local rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta region on 7 May 2017. Before the occurrence of rainstorm, the signals of weather forecasts in this case are too weak to be predicted by numerical weather model, but the surface temperature over the urban area are high. The results of this study show that the wind field, temperature, and water vapor are obviously adjusted by assimilating surface data of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, and 2-m water vapor mixing ratio at 2300 BST 6 May, especially below the height of 2 km. The southerly wind over the Pearl River Delta region is enhanced, and the convergence of wind over the northern Guangzhou city is also enhanced. Additionally, temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and pseudoequivalent potential temperature are obviously increased over the urban region, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. After assimilation, the predictions of 12-h rainfall amount, temperature, and relative humidity are significantly improved, and the rainfall intensity and distribution in this case can be successfully reproduced. Moreover, sensitivity tests suggest that the assimilation of 2-m temperature is the key to predict this extreme rainfall and just assimilating data of surface wind or water vapor is not workable, implying that urban heat island effect may be an important factor in this extreme rainstorm.