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171.
Praveen Kumar Peter Guttarp Efi Foufoula-Georgiou 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1994,8(3):173-183
We present a statistically robust approach based on probability weighted moments to assess the presence of simple scaling in geophysical processes. The proposed approach is different from current approaches which rely on estimation of high order moments. High order moments of simple scaling processes (distributions) may not have theoretically defined values and consequently, their empirical estimates are highly variable and do not converge with increasing sample size. They are, therefore, not an appropriate tool for inference. On the other hand we show that the probability weighted moments of such processes (distributions) do exist and, hence, their empirical estimates are more robust. These moments, therefore, provide an appropriate tool for inferring the presence of scaling. We illustrate this using simulated Levystable processes and then draw inference on the nature of scaling in fluctuations of a spatial rainfall process. 相似文献
172.
TRAJECTORY DIAGNOSIS OF AIR PARCELS IN HIGH-AND LOW-LEVEL JETS FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL CASE DURING MEIYU SEASON OF 1991 下载免费PDF全文
Trajectory diagnostic methods were used to analyze air parcels of high-and low-level jets during the heavy rainfall of 4-6 July 1991.It is found that air parcels above rainfall area travelled from the entrance of the high-level jet,passing through the jet center and reached the exit region.Upper tropospheric divergence over rainfall area resulted from decelerative motion of the jet flow.Warm and moist southwest flow converged and ascended ahead of the low-level jet.The decreasing of low-level pressure as a result of high-level divergence that caused the low-level jet became unexpectedly strong. 相似文献
173.
174.
利用主成份分析和非整数波功率谱分析研究了1991年初夏亚洲季风区逐日500 hPa环流的时空分布特征。结果表明,主成份分析得到的前5个特征向量的空间分布与各个季风系统的活动有关,其时间系数存在显著的12—22天准周期振荡和28—31,43—65天的低频振荡周期,它们与长江下游暴雨形成有密切联系。当第一主成份从谷点上升且第二主成份稳定地增大(减小)时,长江下游出现持续暴雨。亚洲副热带海洋加热异常和海陆热力差异产生的不均匀加热分布激发的各种低频波及其相互作用导致向热带外能量频散的异常,是引起长江下游持续暴雨的 相似文献
175.
利用Threat Score方法,对1991年6月12—15日,6月29日—7月12日江淮持续暴雨的定量预报进行了检验。结果表明,对于大雨和暴雨预报,目前主观预报优于客观预报。数值预报在降雨定量预报的某些方面有了一定突破。 相似文献
176.
177.
E. Nakakita S. Ikebuchi M. Shiiba T. Takasao 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1990,4(2):135-150
A computational method for the determination of rainfall distribution for applications in short term rainfall prediction is presented here. The method is strongly influenced by the experience gained from the observation and analysis of data gathered on a heavy rainfall event in 1986 that occurred during the Baiu Season in Japan. The method is based on the concept that rainfall occurs as an interaction between an instability field, appropriately modeled, and a field of water vapor under the influence of topography. The results from this computational method showed good agreement with the temporal variation in the rainband that moved across the observation field in 1986. Towards determination of the parameters in the computational model, another method for the determination of the rainfield is also developed. This second method determines the rainfall distribution from estimation of the conversion rate of water vapor to liquid water through use of data from a three dimensional scanning radar. The results are consistent with those obtained from the first method. 相似文献
178.
D. -J. Seo J. A. Smith 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1991,5(1):17-29
Procedures for estimating rainfall from radar and raingage observations are constructed in a Bayesian framework. Given that the number of raingage measurements is typically very small, mean and variance of gage rainfall are treated as uncertain parameters. Under the assumption that log gage rainfall and log radar rainfall are jointly multivariate normal, the estimation problem is equivalent to lognormal co-kriging with uncertain mean and variance of the gage rainfall field.The posterior distribution is obtained under the assumption that the prior for the mean and inverse of the variance of log gage rainfall is normal-gamma 2. Estimate and estimation variance do not have closed-form expressions, but can be easily evaluated by numerically integrating two single integrals. To reduce computational burden associated with evaluating sufficient statistics for the likelihood function, an approximate form of parameter updating is given. Also, as a further approximation, the parameters are updated using raingage measurements only, yielding closed-form expressions for estimate and estimation variance in the Gaussian domain.With a reduction in the number of radar rainfall data in constructing covariance matrices, computational requirements for the estimation procedures are not significantly greater than those for simple co-kriging. Given their generality, the estimation procedures constructed in this work are considered to be applicable in various estimation problems involving an undersampled main variable and a densely sampled auxiliary variable. 相似文献
179.
分析了淮河上游大暴雨过程的水汽来源和暴雨区的水分平衡。结果说明,暴雨区除有大量水汽净通量外,还有相当数量的水分来自云的净输送,尤其是大暴雨中心附近,积雨云团的净通量决定降水量的大小。因此,分析云的移动和变化是暴雨预报的重要课题。 相似文献
180.
根据1991年5-8月江淮特大暴雨资料,使用功率谱和带通滤波结合的方法,研究了1991年夏季风和江淮梅雨的准周期振荡,探索季风对异常梅雨的影响。分析指出,1991年北半球夏季风活动,江淮流域湿度场和降雨量变化均存在显著的准24天周期振荡,夏季风的周期振荡,主要表现在西南季风(东南季风不明显),它的位相比降雨量提前2-4左右,其振幅大小较好地反映了降雨量的大小。 相似文献