天水市“7.25”群发性山洪地质灾害发育特征及成因分析

通过对天水市"7.25"群发性山洪地质灾害的现场调查,系统查明了此次地质灾害的灾情、致灾因素、灾害特征、致灾范围以及分布规律,分析了此次山洪地质灾害发育特征及成因。结果表明:本次由强降雨引发并加剧的地质灾害类型主要以黄土-泥岩及黄土滑坡为主,中小型沟谷泥石流、土质崩塌和土质不稳定斜坡次之。"7.25"山洪地质灾害具有普遍性、群发性、局地爆发性等特征,其隐蔽性强,潜在危害大,灾害链模式显著。灾害发生期间降雨具有强度大、范围广等特点,使区内山体岩土体饱和,显著降低了岩土体抗剪强度,加之与地震的叠加效应明显加剧了此次群发性山洪地质灾害。     

基于GIS的滑坡地质灾害地貌因素分析

基于ArcGIS平台, 利用SRTM-DEM数据资料, 选择青藏高原东缘及四川盆地为研究区, 提取了区内地形起伏度和坡度等地貌参数, 统计了区内2319个滑坡点的高程, 初步建立了地形地貌与滑坡灾害点分布之间的对应关系。结果表明, 研究区滑坡灾害点及其高程分布具有明显的区域规律性, 滑坡灾害点发生的高程为400~800m和1400~2000m, 这两个区间占研究区所有滑坡总数的40%和28%;滑坡所对应的地形起伏度主要在300~600m, 占研究区所有滑坡总数的48.68%;滑坡灾害发生的地形坡度为10°~25°, 占研究区所有滑坡总数的44.70%。研究发现, 这些地区对应的地貌类型主要是深切的"V"型河谷和山谷地貌。此外, 从断裂活动等方面分析了滑坡形成的动力机制。      

Time independent seismic hazard analysis in Alborz and surrounding area

The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability is high.     

Analysis of Post-Failure Slope Movements within the Framework of Hazard and Risk Analysis

The paper first recalls briefly a methodological framework to assess landslide hazard and risk analysis in terms of predisposition, triggering andrevealing factors. This framework, that reflects the mechanisms involved in the landslide, is based on the Geotechnical Characterisation of slope movements proposed by Vaunat et al. (1994) and Leroueil et al. (1996). The Geotechnical Characterisation can be schematized by a 3-D matrix having the following axes: types of movement; types ofmaterial; and the four stages of movement: pre-failure, failure, post-failure andreactivation. For each relevant element of this 3-D matrix, there is a characterisationsheet including: the controlling laws and parameters, the predisposition factors, thetriggering or aggravating factors, the revealing factors and the consequences of the movement. The paper focuses afterwards on the post-failure stage, which generallyis the most destructive, and on the mobility index. It is shown that this laterindex can be described as the product of sub-indices associated with failure, brittlenessof the material, ability of the soil to develop pore pressures, geometry of the moving soil mass and characteristics of the terrain. It is also shown how these aspectscan be incorporated into the Geotechnical characterisation of slope movements. This seems to provide a rational basis for examining slope movements at the post-failure stage and assessing associated risks.     

A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

An overview on the seismic zonation and microzonation studies in India

The present study presents a review on the progressive development of the seismic zonation map of India both from official agencies and also from independent individual studies. The zonation map have been modified and updated regularly with the occurrence of major destructive earthquakes over the years in the Indian subcontinent with the addition of new data. This study discusses the criteria chosen for the progressive zonation and the major earthquakes that were responsible for retrospection of the earlier published maps. The seismic zonation maps of India have also been prepared by various independent workers by adopting different approaches to achieve the purpose of the zonation. Despite the endeavors from various sources to provide a solution for the problem of earthquake hazards in India, there were many limitations on the zonation map as it gives the picture at a regional scale mostly on the bedrock level without addressing the local site conditions. But nevertheless, the seismic zonation map gives basic guidelines for any region to know the hazard scenario and if any city or urban population is under threat from seismic point of view, further site specific seismic microzonation may be carried out. In the International scenario, the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) in 1999 prepared a hazard map for world in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, but it turned out to be an underestimation of the hazard parameter when compared with the observed PGA. To tackle the problem of seismic hazards, there was a need to have a detail study on the local site conditions in terms of its geological, geophysical and geotechnical properties. With the advent of better instrumentation and knowledge on the mechanics of earthquakes, it was possible to identify zones of hazards at a local level and this gives rise to the study of seismic microzonation. Seismic microzonation work has been carried out in India in some of the strategic important mega cities and industrial build up that has the potential of being damaged from future earthquakes, as has been shown in the past. Though the microzonation map is not the final output map, as it can still be updated at later stage with more input data, it does provide a more realistic picture on the site specific seismic hazard.     

On the swelling potential of compacted high plasticity clays

We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆ_max, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an M_S-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆ_max,RP_6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics.     

Preparing a seismic hazard model for Switzerland: the view from PEGASOS Expert Group 3 (EG1c)

The seismic hazard model used in the PEGASOS project for assessing earth-quake hazard at four NPP sites was a composite of four sub-models, each produced by a team of three experts. In this paper, one of these models is described in detail by the authors. A criticism sometimes levelled at probabilistic seismic hazard studies is that the process by which seismic source zones are arrived at is obscure, subjective and inconsistent. Here, we attempt to recount the stages by which the model evolved, and the decisions made along the way. In particular, a macro-to-micro approach was used, in which three main stages can be described. The first was the characterisation of the overall kinematic model, the “big picture” of regional seismogenesis. Secondly, this was refined to a more detailed seismotectonic model. Lastly, this was used as the basis of individual sources, for which parameters can be assessed. Some basic questions had also to be answered about aspects of the approach to modelling to be used: for instance, is spatial smoothing an appropriate tool to apply? Should individual fault sources be modelled in an intraplate environment? Also, the extent to which alternative modelling decisions should be expressed in a logic tree structure has to be considered.     

汶川地震北川县城地质灾害调查与初步分析

汶川8.0级地震造成了北川县巨大的破坏,导致上万人死亡,整个北川县城变为废墟。现场地震科考分析显示,造成北川县城区建筑物和道路严重损毁,以及人员重大伤亡的三个主要原因为：①强地震产生的振动破坏效应;②活断层错动产生的地表破裂效应;③地震引发的次生地质灾害（崩塌、滑坡和泥石流）。地震次生地质灾害造成了北川县城区上千人死亡、大量房屋被埋、多处路段被毁。在分析地震地质构造背景基础上,对地震引发的北川县城崩塌、滑坡和泥石流次生地质进行了现场调查,查明了地质灾害分布和发育特征,初步分析了王家岩滑坡和景家山崩塌的地震地质灾害破坏机理。     

地质灾害与地层岩性的关系探讨

通过对福建省内10余个县（市）地质灾害调查与区域综合研究分析。认为各种地质灾害的发生与地质体的母岩有着内在联系,不同类型地质体母岩所发生地质灾害的种类、机率和形成规模也不尽相同。基于福建省现有地质灾害数据库所采集的资料,就地质灾害与地质体母岩的影响关系进行初步探讨。