A nonlinear data‐driven model for synthetic generation of annual streamflows

A hybrid model that blends two non‐linear data‐driven models, i.e. an artificial neural network (ANN) and a moving block bootstrap (MBB), is proposed for modelling annual streamflows of rivers that exhibit complex dependence. In the proposed model, the annual streamflows are modelled initially using a radial basis function ANN model. The residuals extracted from the neural network model are resampled using the non‐parametric resampling technique MBB to obtain innovations, which are then added back to the ANN‐modelled flows to generate synthetic replicates. The model has been applied to three annual streamflow records with variable record length, selected from different geographic regions, namely Africa, USA and former USSR. The performance of the proposed ANN‐based non‐linear hybrid model has been compared with that of the linear parametric hybrid model. The results from the case studies indicate that the proposed ANN‐based hybrid model (ANNHM) is able to reproduce the skewness present in the streamflows better compared to the linear parametric‐based hybrid model (LPHM), owing to the effective capturing of the non‐linearities. Moreover, the ANNHM, being a completely data‐driven model, reproduces the features of the marginal distribution more closely than the LPHM, but offers less smoothing and no extrapolation value. It is observed that even though the preservation of the linear dependence structure by the ANNHM is inferior to the LPHM, the effective blending of the two non‐linear models helps the ANNHM to predict the drought and the storage characteristics efficiently. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spacecraft Doppler tracking with possible violations of LLI and LPI: preliminary bounds on LLI from Mars Express

Three-way spacecraft Doppler tracking is currently widely used and it plays an important role in the control and navigation of deep space missions. Using the theory of three-way Doppler tracking, including possible violations of the local Lorentz invariance(LLI) and the local position invariance(LPI), we analyze the post-fit residuals of three-way Doppler tracking data of Mars Express. These Doppler observations were carried out from August 7th to 8th in 2009, with an uplink station administered by the European Space Agency at New Norcia in Australia and three downlink stations at Shanghai, Kunming and Urumqi in China. We find that, although these observations impose preliminary bounds on LLI at the level of 10-2, they are not suitable for testing LPI because of the configuration of these stations and the accuracy of the observations.To our knowledge, this is one of the first attempts in China to apply radio science to the field of fundamental physics.     

西宁强降水的多普勒雷达径向速度图特征研究

分析2010—2016年西宁强降水多普勒天气雷达径向速度图特征及预警指标,结果表明:西宁强降水的径向速度图上往往会出现逆风区,且直接受影响的混合性强降水Ⅰ类逆风区略多,对流性强降水多为Ⅱ类,总体上逆风区以东北向移动为最多。逆风区较强降水出现时间有一定的提前量,且强降水落区在逆风区及其移动路径附近,逆风区既是强降水预警的时效性判据,也是识别强降水落区及路径的有用判据。逆风区切变流场的辐合(散),将增强(减弱)强降水的发展,且辐合(散)的出现提前于强降水的开始(结束)时间。强降水前1 h的垂直风切变特征为混合性强降水低层最大、中层最小,对流性强降水各层则均明显大;低一中一高层冷、暖平流配置的混合性强降水主要表现为深厚暖平流,对流性强降水则平流不明显或低、中层有暖平流。对流性强降水最大回波高度和零速度层均较混合性强降水高,但其总体差别较小。综合应用径向速度得到的强降水临近预警指标,其准确率达到78.6%。     

裂隙岩体变形模量尺寸效应研究Ⅰ:有限元法

通过对裂隙交叉和非贯通裂隙进行的网格剖分研究,建立了随机裂隙岩体网格生成方法,并编制了裂隙岩体有限元网格自动生成程序。根据锦屏电站辅助洞白山组大理岩裂隙分布调查结果,用蒙特卡洛法生成随机裂隙网络,进行了岩石-裂隙二元岩体网格自动剖分,将试验室获得的岩石和裂隙的力学参数分别赋予岩体模型中的岩石和裂隙,通过有限元方法研究了裂隙岩体等效变形模量的尺寸效应和各向异性。尺寸效应研究结果表明,所研究的裂隙岩体的等效变形模量表征单元体REV为8 m;各向异性研究结果表明,在REV尺寸下,所研究的裂隙岩体各个方向变形模量可以通过柔度张量进行拟合,且张量拟合误差不超过8%。     

石英结晶学优选与应用

石英集合体的结晶学优选可由位错滑移、双晶滑移、定向成核与生长等形成,其中位错滑移是塑性变形岩石中石英结晶学优选产生的最重要的机制。影响变形石英结晶学优选的因素有温度、应变速率、应变、差应力、水、复矿物岩石中各种矿物间的相互作用、初始结晶学方向等。系统总结了石英晶体变形与滑移系,结晶学优选的测量与表达,多种条件下石英的结晶学优选,以及在判断剪切方向、计算运动学涡度、判定变形温度、分析变形历史等方面的应用,并认为应用石英组构作运动学和动力学解析时需与其它微观、宏观现象相结合。     

基于单位四元数的小像幅面阵CCD相机检校

介绍了面阵CCD相机的径向畸变、偏心畸变模型,建立了用于非量测相机标定的扩展共线条件方程.引入了四元数姿态描述方法,利用单位四元数替代外方位角元素(ω,ψ,к)构建旋转矩阵,建立了基于单位四元数的相机标定数学模型.采用室内三维控制场对小像幅面阵CCD相机进行了标定实验,取得了优于0.2个像素的定位精度.     

基于数位的相机径向畸变参数计算

相机畸变是影响基于图像的几何量测、三维重建精度的重要因素之一。空间中一条直线在透视投影作用下理应成为一条直线,但因畸变其构象发生弯曲,通过场景信息中共线点的透视投影不变性可以求解出相机径向畸变系数。考虑畸变的渐变特性,该文设计了基于数位的相机径向畸变参数解算方法:将相机一阶径向畸变系数k1用科学计数法X×10-m表示,依次确定其指数m及尾数X,直至满足精度的设定,最终求解出k1的值。最后通过模拟和实例数据对该方法进行了分析验证。     

Assessment of Jovian synchrotron radiation with a bi-modal electron population

An explicit formula is developed to explore the mechanism of the synchrotron radiation by using a bi-modal loss-cone distribution function. The variation of the distribution function along the field line is modeled in detail and the evaluation of the total power in the synchrotron radiation is presented. The variance of synchrotron radiation with latitude depends on the electron anisotropy; for low anisotropy, synchrotron radiation increases with latitude and reaches a maximum at the particle mirror points; for high anisotropy, it decreases with latitude and maximizes at the equator. A bi-modal population is therefore suggested to explain the radiation intensity which peaks both at the equator and at high latitude.