Study of the characteristics of earthquake precursory anomalies of He and H2 Beijing No. 2 Cotton Mill well and their relation with earthquakes

This paper systematically summarized the relation of the abnormal change of He and H₂ dissolved gasses in deep hot-water well at Beijing No. 2 Cotton Mill and their relation with seismicity of the region. An empirical formula for the relation of the precursory anomaly of He and H₂ gasses with the magnitude and occurrence time of earthquake has been derived. Two events of magnitude greater than 5 in North China had been successfully predicted by using this formula. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 490–497, 1993.     

灰色系统理论在海堤沉降预测中的应用

利用灰色系统理论,对秦山核电站一期海堤沉降进行了预测,以较少的观测样本建立了新陈代谢数列,经后验差检验,观测精度达到一级。由此证明,用ＧＭ（１,１）模型进行预测,建模方便,预测精度高,在大型建筑物变形监测中有较大的实用价值。     

云南地区地震短临预报实践

１９９７年４－６月云南省地震局对滇西南重点监视区做了短临预报,但这期间未发生所预期的地震。而滇西南地区６级地震的背景和省内的前兆异常变化是明显的。为此,认为前兆异常是区域应力场增强的结果。异常与地震是相互伴生的兄弟关系,不是父子间因果关系,是造成地震虚报的主要原因。     

An experiment on reservoir representation schemes to improve hydrologic prediction: coupling the national water model with the HEC-ResSim

ABSTRACT

This study experiments with reservoir representation schemes to improve the ability to model active water management in the National Water Model (NWM). For this purpose, we developed an integrated water management model, NWM-ResSim, by coupling the NWM with HEC-ResSim, and two reservoir representation schemes are tested: simulation of reservoir operations and retrieval of scheduled operations. The experiments focus on a pilot reservoir domain in the Russian River basin – Lake Mendocino, California – and its contributing watershed. The evaluation results suggest that the NWM-ResSim improves the simulation performance of reservoir outflow from this managed reservoir over the NWM default level pool routing scheme. The degree of this improvement depends on the suitability of the operation guidance; the reservoir operations simulation scheme could have acceptable errors for the purposes of water resources management, but not for flood operations. Results of the retrieval scheme of scheduled operations demonstrated better performance for sub-daily flood operations.     

走向21世纪的地壳形变学--对大陆动力学与地震预测的新推动

监测和预测地震等自然灾害的需要,促进了大地测量学和地球物理学等学科的相互交融.经过30余年的探索,一门地学前沿交叉新学科--"地壳形变学"已初步形成.地壳形变学已拥有空间-地面-深部立体测地系统,具有在多种空间尺度内精确测定现今地壳运动(秒～数十年)和灾害孕育过程的空前强大能力,从而可望击破长期制约现今地球动力学和地震预测的地球空间信息的"瓶颈".在21世纪,地壳形变学将成为推动大陆动力学和地震预报的主要科技动力之一,推进精确定量测定大陆动力学现今过程,限定现今大陆动力学性质并在验证解释地质学模型诸方面发挥特有作用.它将促使地震预测摆脱"粘滞状态",由"经验预测"走向"图像动力学预测";在揭示大陆地震孕育时空过程、判定地震大形势、划定危险区、搜寻和跟踪震源动力学演化过程及研究动力学响应耦合等方面作出新贡献.     

基于年际增量法的华西秋雨预测模型建立及检验

利用1962—2018年华西地区301个气象台站秋季降水量资料和国家气候中心整理的130项气候系统指数，采用年际增量法建立了华西秋雨预测模型。首先通过相关分析挑选了4个与华西秋雨年际增量前3主模态密切相关的影响因子，进而采用多元线性回归方法进行建模，拟合时段和后报时段分别选为1962—1991年和1992—2018年。华西秋雨年际增量前3主模态累积值的预测模型通过了α=0.01的显著性水平检验，表明该模型具有较高的拟合预测能力。然后用相同的预测因子分别建立华西地区301个气象站点的华西秋雨年际增量预测模型，大部分模型都通过了显著性检验。用PS评分指标对预测效果进行检验，结果显示后报期年平均PS评分达74.5分。从空间分布来看后报期大部分站点的PS评分都超过60分，其中四川盆地南部、贵州东部和湖南西部等地超过80分。与华西各省和国家气候中心发布的近6年秋季降水预测PS评分进行比较，发现模型后报结果有显著优势。总体来看，用年际增量法建立的华西秋雨预测模型具有较高的预测技巧和实际应用价值。     

A case study of the improvement of soil moisture initialization in IAP-PSSCA

A prediction system is employed to investigate the potential use of a soil moisture initialization scheme in seasonal precipitation prediction through a case study of severe floods in 1998. The results show that driving the model with reasonable initial soil moisture distribution is helpful for precipitation prediction,and the initialization scheme is easy to use in operational prediction.     

大庆深部致密砂砾岩含气储层产能预测

气层产能预测是气藏工程研究中用于指导气井以及气田合理生产的重要工作和任务,它在气田整体评价和高效开发进程中具有很强的预见性和主动性。讨论了大庆深部致密砂砾岩含气储层的产能与测井响应之间的关系,探讨了根据测井资料应用人工神经网络技术预测含气储层产能的方法。利用已知气井测试结果和测井资料作为网络的训练样本。根据网络学习训练结果,输入储集层的测井资料等静态参数,可预测该储集层的产能。根据这种关系采用神经网络技术实现了测井对产能的预测评价,从而为大庆深部致密砂砾岩含气储层的开发提供了一定的依据。     

GPS揭示的现今地壳运动与地震前兆特征

利用“中国地壳运动观测网络”产出的GPS观测资料,采用球坐标系下非连续变形算法对资源进行计算,以此为基础,对我国大陆地块及其边界带运动与形变进行了分析。对GPS基准站的连续观测序列采用小波变换进行分解变换,分析了部分震例,探讨了从GPS连续观测序列提取地震前兆的方法。初步取得两点认识：（1）7级以上的大地震主要发生在走滑运动量大的活动边界,且与高应变率地块有关,这可以作为地震中长期预测判据;（2）GPS基准站连续观测序列中的低频段,地震前6个月或稍长时段有一定的前兆异常出现,这可以作为地震中短期预测判据。