1988年澜沧—耿马地震的预报速报与对策

1988年11月6日,在云南省澜沧、耿马相继发生了7.6级、7.2级地震。这次地震前曾经作过准确的中长期预报。在1985年完成1986年出版的南北地震带未来十年地震危险性研究报告和预测图中,澜沧、耿马地区就是两个圈定的7级危险区中的一个。1986年该报告正式上报云南省人民政府。1987年起该区域为我省的地震危险性监视区。1988年除加强监视外,我们还加强了一系列大震对策措施的准备工作。1988年8月该区地震活动增强,我局派出的现场考察组向当地政府作了汇报,并指出该区仍存在着严重的地震危险性。与此同时,省局科技人员对该区作出了一系列不同程度的短期预报,并向当地打了招呼,当地政府采取了一定的措施。遗憾未能作出临震预报。大震发生后,我局昆明遥测台网仅7分钟定了位置和震级,并报告了国家地震局和省政府,及时为抗震救灾提供可靠的科学依据。震后2.5小时,现场监测队伍就出发了。在大震现场仅三天内就作出了地震趋势判断,也较好地作出了强余震的预报,有力地组织了地震考察及地震知识宣传。这一系列的大震对策工作极大地推动了现场的抗震救灾工作,减轻了震灾的继续发生及其带来的巨大的心理和社会影响。整个澜沧—耿马地震的预报、速报及大震对策工作在国内外都是一次较高水平的科学实践,得到了中央慰问团及     

Hydrologic and geochemical properties of the San Andreas fault at the Stone Canyon well

The Stone Canyon well penetrates 600 m of highly fractured and severely altered quartz diorite intimately associated with the creeping segment of the San Andreas fault of central California. Geophysical logs reveal a complex hydrology dominated by major fractures. Fluid pressure in some fractures is sufficient to prevent invasion of the formation by heavy drilling mud, implying pore pressures at least 10% higher than hydrostatic ones. At least three chemically distinct waters are encountered, including a chloride brine clearly segregated from the shallow, potable groundwater. Chemical alteration of the quartz diorite persists throughout the well, far below the depth where the water-rock reactions responsible for the ubiquitous chlorite and mixed-layer clays can be considered weathering. Whole-rock ¹⁸O analyses indicate significant interaction of the rocks with a low ¹⁸O fluid within some of the fractured and altered zones, whereas a deeper sample shows¹⁸O enrichment. High pore pressures encountered in Stone Canyon may be due to tectonic compression. Measurements of temporal variations in the pore pressure at the well may provide a means of predicting earthquakes along this segment of the San Andreas fault.     

Instability model for recurring large and great earthquakes in southern California

The locked section of the San Andreas fault in southern California has experienced a number of large and great earthquakes in the past, and thus is expected to have more in the future. To estimate the location, time, and slip of the next few earthquakes, an earthquake instability model is formulated. The model is similar to one recently developed for moderate earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. In both models, unstable faulting (the earthquake analog) is caused by failure of all or part of a patch of brittle, strain-softening fault zone. In the present model the patch extends downward from the ground surface to about 12 km depth, and extends 500 km along strike from Parkfield to the Salton Sea. The variation of patch strength along strike is adjusted by trial until the computed sequence of instabilities matches the sequence of large and great earthquakes sincea.d. 1080 reported by Sieh and others. The last earthquake was theM=8.3 Ft. Tejon event in 1857. The resulting strength variation has five contiguous sections of alternately low and high strength. From north to south, the approximate locations of the sections are: (1) Parkfield to Bitterwater Valley, (2) Bitterwater Valley to Lake Hughes, (3) Lake Hughes to San Bernardino, (4) San Bernardino to Palm Springs, and (5) Palm Springs to the Salton Sea. Sections 1, 3, and 5 have strengths between 53 and 88 bars; sections 2 and 4 have strengths between 164 and 193 bars. Patch section ends and unstable rupture ends usually coincide, although one or more adjacent patch sections may fail unstably at once. The model predicts that the next sections of the fault to slip unstably will be 1, 3, and 5; the order and dates depend on the assumed length of an earthquake rupture in about 1700.     

矿化富集中心地质因素多元统计分析及应用

本文导出了通过控矿地质因素逻辑信息法的研究来建立矿化富集中心数学模型的公式,使矿化富集中心数学模型与控矿地质因素定量地联系起来。还给出了单个矿化富集中心趋势面分析的数学模型和矿床空间分布模型。在这基础上,以某锡-多金属成矿带中某远景区的研究为例说明怎样应用矿化富集中心地质因素多元统计分析（逻辑信息法、趋势面分析、逐步回归分析和聚类分析）进行矿床统计预测。     

Quantitative chemical characterization of vitrinite concentrates using pyrolysis-gas chromatography. Rank variation of pyrolysis products

A series of hand-picked vitrinite samples from the Lower Kittanning Seam, Pennsylvania have been examined using quantitative pyrolysis-gas chromatography. These vitrinites ranged in rank from 0.59 to 1.71% reflectance, a rank range from high volatile C bituminous to low volatile bituminous. High molecular weight pyrolysis products included alkyl aromatic and phenolic compounds. Attempts have been made to correlate the pyrolysis product composition to rank parameters including vitrinite reflectance, volatile matter yield, carbon content, atomic H/C ratio and Rock-Eval determined T_max. Total yield of phenols was found to be strongly and inversely rank related. A clear relationship between C₈ alkyl-benzene yield and rank was not found for the sample set.     

Development of Artificial Intelligence Technology in Weather Forecast

Numerical weather prediction, which is the major basis of current weather forecast, has some shortcomings, such as the understanding of the law of atmospheric motion, the assimilation and application of observation data, the expression of model physics, etc., leading to the forecast error of weather. The rapid development of artificial intelligence technology in recent years provides a new possibility for the advancement and innovation of weather forecast. In this paper, the background of the development of artificial intelligence, the current situation of the application of artificial intelligence technology to weather forecast and the future development trend are mainly described to account for this possibility. After that, the idea for development of weather forecast technology based on the integration of artificial intelligence and numerical forecast is put forward. Particularly, this study stresses that, in order to advance the AI algorithm of weather forecast in the future, it is requested to focus on the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of atmospheric motion leading to the uncertainty of forecast. Starting from the essence of mathematics and physics, we need to realize the hybrid modeling of mathematics and physics, not only to establish the framework of input-output mapping, but also to provide solutions to the bottleneck problems of weather forecast.     

加卸载响应比理论在中强地震（7〉M≥6）预测中的应用

本文运用加卸载响应比理论对中强地震前的加卸载响应比的变化进行了研究。结果表明，中强地震前加卸载响应比明显上升，表现为三种不同的形态，持续时间为半年到两年。     

中长期地震预测方案综合信度评价的层次分析法

由于存在各种复杂的不确定因素的影响，正确合理地评价地震观测结果的可信度，具有一定的难度。本文首先引入具有广泛应用途的层次分析法，并以华北北部为例，结合Ｄｅｌｐｈｉ专家咨询结果，给出了反映各个预测方案结果的可信度及具有满意一致性的相对重要性权系数。其结果可作为综合各种预测方案，确定该地区中长期地震危险区的参考依据。     

云南及其周邻大地震与云南天文台时纬残差变化

本文侧重于讨论强震的中期异常特征及其预测标志。从方法特点出发，讨论了时纬残差异常用于地震预报的可行性以及用于临震预报的局限性。研究了云南省内６级以上强震、相邻区域７级以上大震的时纬残差异常标志。资料中最后一次强震经过了地震预测与预报全过程的实践检验。初步讨论了异常与构造运动的关系以及有异常无地震的特殊标志。     

近四年来我国气候数值模拟与预报研究的进展

近年来，我国在气候问题中的数值模拟式研究方面有了相当大的发展。这主要表现在气候模式水平的迅速提高，以及利用气候模式进行了大量的气候数值模拟和预报试验研究工作。对我国１９９１￣１９９４年在这方面的主要研究进展进行了系统的总结。