大地形变监测预报在中国西部防震减灾事业中的基础作用

本文以巩固和发挥大地形变地震监测预报基础地位和作用、积极推进中国西部防震减灾事业可持续性和协调性发展为主旨,回顾了西部地区20世纪70年代初至“九五”前期大地形变监测与地震预测研究工作基础,介绍了“九五”后期至今大地形变监测与地震预测研究的主要进展,并对该领域发展中所面临的一些问题进行了初步探讨。     

青西油田碳酸盐岩裂缝性储层地球物理预测技术的应用

白云岩成岩收缩晶间孔、洞、缝与构造网状缝相互沟通可以组成良好的油气储层，但是这种复杂裂缝—孔隙型储层分布随机性强、发育程度和差异性大，储层预测难度大。本文以中国西部酒泉盆地青西油田下白垩统下沟组湖相白云岩裂缝—孔隙型储层为例，提出地球物理综合预测碳酸盐岩裂缝的方法。本文描述了综合地球物理方法预测碳酸盐岩裂缝储层的实施和应用效果。     

用MATLAB对倾斜观测资料进行预处理

用MATLAB语言分析了龙岩地震台地倾斜垂直摆数字观测仪NS向观测数据的频率成分,然后分别调用完全的设计函数butter、cheby1、cheby2,设计了低通、带通、高通滤波程序,对龙岩台地倾斜垂直摆数字观测仪NS向观测数据进行了滤波,得到了相关频率的滤波曲线图。本文只对观测数据进行一个月的数据处理,若将一年或几年的观测数据进行滤波处理,并进一步进行波形分析或处理,也许能找出某些与地震有关的信息,为地震分析预报提供服务。     

The dependence of response spectrum on the tectonic ambient shear stress field

Introduction The acceleration response spectrum and peak ground acceleration are the necessary and im-portant parameters in earthquake-resistant design at present. They are still active research field. With the increase of digital high accurate strong motion observation data, especially the earth-quakes of Loma Prieta (M=7.0) in 1989; Landers (M=7.3) in 1992; Big Bear (M=6.4) in 1994 and Northridge (M=6.7) in 1994 in USA; Kozani (M=6.6) earthquake and afteshocks in 1995 in Greece; Dinar…     

Delayed geochemical hazard: Concept, digital model and case study

Delayed Geochemical Hazard (DGH briefly) presents the whole process of a kind of serious ecological and environmental hazard caused by sudden reactivation and sharp release of long-term accumulated pollutant from stable species to active ones in soil or sediment system due to the change of physical-chemical conditions (such as temperature, pH, Eh, moisture, the concentrations of organic matters, etc.) or the decrease of environment capacity. The characteristics of DGH are discussed. The process of a typical DGH can be expressed as a nonlinear polynomial. The points where the derivative functions of the first and second orders of the polynomial reach zero, minimum and maximum are keys for risk assessment and harzard pridication.The process and mechanism of the hazard is due to the transform of pollutant among different species principally. The concepts of "total releasable content of pollutant", TRCP, and "total concentration of active specie", TCAS, are necessarily defined to describe the mechanism of DGH. The possibility of the temporal and spatial propagation is discussed. Case study shows that there exists a transform mechanism of "gradual release" and "chain reaction" among the species of the exchangeable and the bounds to carbonate, iron and manganese oxides and organic matter, thus causing the delayed geochemical hazard.     

Structuring subjectivities? Using Q methodology in human geography

This paper presents a critical and reflexive account of using Q methodology in human geography. Q methodology has a long pedigree in psychological, political and sociological research, but is only recently beginning to be used by human geographers. We discuss, in particular, the parts of the process(es) of Q methodology that are often glossed over in the literature, through reflecting on our learning in using Q within a project examining the use and production of environmental science by NGOs. We conclude that Q may be a useful supplement to existing methods in human geography, as long as it is used creatively and reflexively and with full awareness of its interpretative dimensions.     

三峡库区巫山县城新址岩质库岸再造预测

巫山县城新址位于西坪和大宁河两岸.组成该库段的基岩主要为泥岩、粉砂岩、泥灰岩等,岩性较软弱,且地质构造变动强烈,褶皱、断裂发育,岩层破碎,崩塌、滑坡分布较多,库岸再造问题严重;同时,岸坡再造又严重影响着新县城的规划和库岸的防护.因此把稳态坡形类比法应用于巫山县城新址基岩岸坡的再造预测,定量预测库岸的最终再造宽度,以指导新城的规划与建设.     

基于Markov chain理论的科技成果转化的市场预测

科技成果成功转化的主要标志是其产品的市场畅销度。产品的畅销度由于受各种内外部不确定因素影响，具有随机不确定性。基于这种随机不确定性，运用Markov chain对其产品进行市场预测，并通过实证分析说明其有效性，为科技成果的转化提供具体可行的定量依据。     

Test of a distributed modelling approach to predict flood flows in the karst Suoimuoi catchment in Vietnam

The major obstacles for modelling flood processes in karst areas are a lack of understanding and model representations of the distinctive features and processes associated with runoff generation and often a paucity of field data. In this study, a distributed flood-modelling approach, WetSpa, is modified and applied to simulate the hydrological features and processes in the karst Suoimuoi catchment in northwest Vietnam. With input of topography, land use and soil types in a GIS format, the model is calibrated based on 15 months of hourly meteorological and hydrological data, and is used to simulate both fast surface and conduit flows, and groundwater discharges from karst and non-karst aquifers. Considerable variability in the simulation accuracy is found among storm events and within the catchment. The simulation results show that the model is able to represent reasonably well the stormflows generated by rainfall events in the study catchment.     

地震灾害预测和应急模拟系统的设计与应用——以永安市城市应急系统为例

城市防震减灾是地震潜在频发区提高自然灾害防治能力建设的重要方面。本文结合福建省永安市城市防震减灾信息管理系统的建设,探讨设计防震减灾数值模型,分析模型集成的关键技术,构建了地震风险评估、建筑物易损性评价、生命与财产损失估算、救援与救灾管理调度等模型和基于GIS开发的震害预测和应急模拟系统。该系统在福建省永安市的实际应用表明,通过对地震灾害预测结果的分析,可加强城市抗震中的薄弱环节,为灾区政府应急响应和制订对策提供决策支持辅助信息,从而显著提高城市防震减灾的综合能力。