基于小波分解的西太平洋副热带高压模糊推理预测

基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,讨论了西太平洋副高脊线与其前期位置的相互关系,并在此基础上用小波分解和自适应模糊推理方法,对副高脊线进行集成建模和预测.基于小波分解重构的副高脊线短期活动集成预测结果表明,该方法可有效降低预报难度,明显改进和提高了副高脊线短期活动的预报准确率.     

化探数据库在小秦岭地区成矿预测方面的应用

小秦岭地区7000km²1:5万分散流扫面成果已建成化探数据库,在研究总结前人有关该区成矿规律的基础上,建立了定量预测模型。根据该模型,筛选出2个金Ⅰ级找矿预测区。     

Evaluating accuracy for two empirical methods in predicting settlement of drilled shafts

Several theoretical, empirical and semi-empirical methods are available in the literature to predict settlement of drilled shafts in sandy soils. In the Arabian Gulf countries, specifically in the United Arab Emirates, equations and procedure from the rest of the world are being used in analysis and design of drilled shafts without proper validation. It is the aim of this study to assess the applicability and evaluate the accuracy of two well known, and commonly used methods for pile prediction in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), namely Vesic (1977) and Poulos (1979), via comparison with data from field pile load tests conducted on shafts drilled in the region. Some of these tests were conducted for the purpose of this study, while others were made available through the courtesy of International Piling Contractors who are active in the region (e.g. Bauer International and Swiss Borings). Pile load test data were analyzed to back-calculate the model parameters related to settlement under different loading stages. Geological data and soil properties were obtained from studies conducted at the relevant sites. An effort is made to correlate soil properties with the prediction models. Statistical analysis is conducted to assess the accuracy of the results obtained from the two methods at different stages of loading via those obtained from pile load tests. Moreover, a detailed parametric study is conducted to assess the effect of the related parameters on the predicted pile settlement and the estimated settlement at different stages of loading. The study concluded with a recommendation of the most appropriate models and procedures to be followed for predicting the settlement of drilled shafts in the UAE, together with useful charts and correlation relations. Results showed that settlement values predicted by Vesic (1977) and Poulos (1979) overestimates the true values. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

GIS Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Water Systems in Greater Toronto Area, Canada

Modeling landscape with high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) in a geographic information system can provide essential morphological and structural information for modeling surface processes such as geomorphologic process and water systems. This paper introduces several DEM-based spatial analysis processes applied to characterize spatial distribution and their interactions of ground and surface water systems in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada. The stream networks and drainage basin systems were derived from the DEM with 30 m resolution and the regularities of the surface stream and drainage patterns were modeled from a statistical/multifractal point of view. Together with the elevation and slope of topography, other attributes defmed from modeling the stream system, and drainage networks were used to associate geological, hydrological and topographical features to water flow in river systems and the spatial locations of artesian aquifers in the study area. Stream flow data derived from daily flow measurements recorded at river gauging stations for multi-year period were decomposed into “drainage-area dependent“ and “drainage-area independent“ flow components by two-step “frequency“ and “spatial“ analysis processes. The latter component was further demonstrated to relate most likely to the ground water discharge. An independent analysis was conducted to model the distribution of aquifers with information derived from the records of water wells. The focus was given on quantification of the likelihood of ground water discharge to river and ponds through flowing wells, springs and seepages. It has been shown that the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) is a unique glacial deposit that serves as a recharge layer and that the aquifers in the ORM underlain by Hilton Tills and later deposits exposed near the steep slope zone of the ridges of ORM provide significant discharge to the surface water systems (river flow and ponds) through flowing wells, springs and seepages. Various statistics (cross- and auto-correlation coefficients, fractal R/S exponent) were used in conjunction with GIS to demonstrate the influence of land types, topography and geometry of drainage basins on short- and long-term persistence of river flows as well as responding time to precipitation events. The current study has provided not only insight in understanding the interaction of water systems in the GTA, but also a base for further establishment of an on-line GIS system for predicting spatial-temporal changes of river flow and groundwater level in the GTA.     

Statewide Estimates of Undiscovered Deposits of Gold,Silver, Copper,Lead, and Zinc

Estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits on a statewide basis offer a different perspective on the nation's undiscovered resources of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc. Mean estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits statewide were extracted from the estimates of undiscovered deposits nationwide. More than 50 undiscovered deposits are estimated to occur in Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Estimating the number of undiscovered deposits statewide serves as a measure of a state's total remaining mineral resources in known conventional deposit types.     

一种利用测井资料预测岩石可钻性的计算机方法

介绍了一种利用测井资料快速求得岩石可钻性级值的计算机方法。该方法能够比较准确地预测岩石可钻性，快速做出连续的地层可钻性剖面图。室内微钻头可钻性试验和江汉油田现场应用验证表明：该系统具有比较高的可靠性，是可以投入油田现场应用的。     

From Chicago to L.A. and Back Again: A Chicago‐Inspired Quantitative Analysis of Income Distribution in Montreal*

In a recent issue of Urban Geography (2001) , a number of key players in the 1960s and 1970s school of quantitative urban geography (called Chicago II in this article) set out some of the approach's key methodological premises and assessed its influence in the wider arena of urban studies. At about the same time, the 1920s and 1930s Chicago School of urban sociology (called the Chicago School in this article) was being reassessed in France ( Huet 2000 ), and deconstructed in Los Angeles ( Dear 2001 ). In this article, we outline a selection of basic models of urban space proposed by the Chicago School and further elaborated by Chicago II. We then consider certain aspects of three important critiques: humanist/aesthetic, Marxist, and postmodern. We argue that none of these invalidates the Chicago II approach to the study of urban areas, and we demonstrate its resilience and usefulness by way of the empirical example of Montreal. Though the results are of interest in their own right, the principal purpose of the analysis is to illustrate the type of insight that a structured quantitative approach provides and the way this approach rests on a theoretical understanding of processes at work in cities. We conclude by arguing that the humanist and Marxist critiques shed important light upon the possibilities and limits of the Chicago II approach, but that the postmodern claim that the spatial development of urban areas is not structured by at least some general processes is inaccurate.     

西安市冬季冷暖的历史演变对采暖的影响

本文针对CAPPS2.0系统在业务化自动运行过程中的一些问题,提供了一套具体可行的解决方案,实现了CAPPS系统的全自动运行,具有很高的实用价值。     

竖向地震动强度包络函数的空间变化规律

利用SMART 1台阵三次地震记录拟合了各个测点在地震中的竖向地震动强度包络曲线及Amin 和Ang的强度包络函数中各模型参数值,分析了各模型参数的空间变化规律,建立了各模型参数随二维空间坐标及土层厚度变化的随机模型,为多点地震动合成中竖向强度包络函数的计算提供了理论依据。     

2000年以来中国大陆5级以上地震近源区的相继发震特征与预测

通过对中国大陆除新疆和东北深震区以外的主要地区2000年以来5级以上地震活动特征的研究发现,5级以上地震近源区的相继发震是某些区域地震活动的重要特征。依据这一特征可以对今后研究区内5级以上地震的后续地震作中期预测。