历史文献中的气象记录与气候变化定量重建方法

历史文献记载是研究古气候变化的主要代用证据之一,对于定量重建过去数千年的气候变化序列具有独特价值.本文分析了中国历史文献中气象记录的特点及主要内容,重点梳理了利用各类记录定量重建气候变化序列的基本方法,并列举了通过多源记载集成、多时段记录衔接重建过去2000年中国东中部地区温度与干湿变化序列的校准案例;旨在为客观提取气候变化信息、获取高信度的气候变化数据和进一步发展利用文献记载定量重建气候变化序列的方法提供参考依据.主要认识是:1)历史文献中的气象记录主要有4类:天气、气象灾害、物候与区域气候特征及其影响记载;定量重建气候序列的基本方法有:回归分析、物理模型、分等定级、频次统计、类比分析等,但各类记录的来源、格式、连续性、详略与定量化程度不一,导致利用各类记录定量重建气候变化序列的方法也各不相同.2)对根据多源记载或不同方法反演的代用记录进行集成,利用回归分析、方差匹配、记录影响趋势剔除等校准技术,加强多源数据的相互插补方法研究,可解决古代气象记录的漏、缺记问题,是重建连续气候变化序列的主要途径.     

Animal production and climate variation in the Faeroe Islands in the 19th century

The article deals with aspects of the historical geography of the Faeroe Islands in the 19th century with a focus on animal production, i.e. sheep and cows. It is based on material from the Regional Archive, Føroya Landsskjalasavn. The tithe lists showing the King's third from Norderöe district, 1801–1859, are analysed in detail and compared with the statements from another series of documents, the Sheriff s half-yearly reports on the state of the district. Together these two sets of records give a detailed picture of the development and variation in the number of cows, paying “butter-tithe” and the number of sheep slaughtered, paying “wool-tithe”. The number of cows surviving the winter, depended on the amount and quality of winter fodder or hay, which was produced in the infield the preceding summer. The sheep, on the other hand, that can survive the winter while grazing in the outfield, are dependent on the severity or mildness of the winter as well as their condition in the lambing period. The two series provide data on summer as well as winter weather conditions. The analysis makes an attempt, using the concepts known from the critical realist theory of science, to find the mechanisms as well as necessary and contingent conditions involved in the two processes.